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House prices and the media....
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. The West Australian does not tend to put their headline articles on their website - I guess they think it's going to affect their newspaper sales. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 6559045)
I don't normally get involved in discussions on house prices as I don't really care what happens - the market will do what it has to do, but there has been a lot of bearish news about property recently. Here in WA and the rest of the country. Markets rise and fall - although the general trend is always up. Fact. That's all I need to know.
The West Australian does not tend to put their headline articles on their website - I guess they think it's going to affect their newspaper sales. Both nations invest heavily - financially and emotionally in houses and yet the UK seems hysterical compared to here. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559049)
And yet the UK seems hysterical compared to here.
:D |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559049)
I'm more interested in the different apparoaches of the media to what are big drops in asset values.
Both nations invest heavily - financially and emotionally in houses and yet the UK seems hysterical compared to here. The UK on the other hand is being confronted by the full force of the credit crunch. By all accounts mortgages are nigh on impossible to come by for people without a 25% deposit - effectively a critical rung in the housing ladder has been removed. So the house price falls there are seen as part of a greater crisis. The majority of Aussies still think they live in splendid isolation, looked after by the resources boom forever more. I don't agree and I think pretty soon the mortgage market will dry up here too, the CBA has raised its rates again today and I think soon the rationing of funds will start. Then we'll see how much of an effect immigration has on holding up house prices - the US and UK are both countries with large net inward migration and it hasn't stopped the values of homes falling there. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Hutch
(Post 6559058)
That's it in a nutshell - over-reaction, hype, hyperbole and hysteria. Whether it's stabbing deaths, MRSA or house prices - it's always apocalyptic. About the only thing they can justifiably whinge about is the cost of petrol and teh fact that it always rains on bank holiday weekends ...
:D I wonder if people really are panicking about a 6% drop in the UK. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by bcworld
(Post 6559065)
Then we'll see how much of an effect immigration has on holding up house prices - the US and UK are both countries with large net inward migration and it hasn't stopped the values of homes falling there. |
Re: House prices and the media....
BTW - another interesting article on rental yelds inside the paper. Perth's yelds are apparently extremely low. A year ago, this was one of the reasons touted for houses prices to increase continually.
I remember reading some bright spark's post on here suggesting that this logic might be false - i.e. that to get a realistic yield in percentage terms, prices might have to come down. Very perceptive..... |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559072)
I've never been taken in by this argument - doesn't matter how many immigramts you have, if they don't have cash for a deposit and high enough earnings to service a mega-mortgage, then it's all irrelevant.
Especially now that house prices in the UK are falling and the exchange rate is very much against would be migrants. People moving here now have to find much more money to have the same buying power they could have had a year ago. I imagine that many more immigrants will now have to consider borring more than they had anticipated for their Australian dream. Possibly, for the time being anyway, the days of huge immigrant lump sum purchases are over. S |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Swerv-o
(Post 6559116)
Especially now that house prices in the UK are falling and the exchange rate is very much against would be migrants. People moving here now have to find much more money to have the same buying power they could have had a year ago.
I imagine that many more immigrants will now have to consider borring more than they had anticipated for their Australian dream. Possibly, for the time being anyway, the days of huge immigrant lump sum purchases are over. S |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by bcworld
(Post 6559065)
I think the situation in WA is quite a bit different from the UK. WA is suffering a hangover from extreme price growth in recent years, and despite its local economy probably has the 'worst' house price statistics right now. I'm not keen on the term worst because I'm not someone who thinks falling house prices are a bad thing - I've no idea why people consider year after year of 20% growth a good thing - don't they care that their kids will never stand a chance of owning a home??
The UK on the other hand is being confronted by the full force of the credit crunch. By all accounts mortgages are nigh on impossible to come by for people without a 25% deposit - effectively a critical rung in the housing ladder has been removed. So the house price falls there are seen as part of a greater crisis. The majority of Aussies still think they live in splendid isolation, looked after by the resources boom forever more. I don't agree and I think pretty soon the mortgage market will dry up here too, the CBA has raised its rates again today and I think soon the rationing of funds will start. Then we'll see how much of an effect immigration has on holding up house prices - the US and UK are both countries with large net inward migration and it hasn't stopped the values of homes falling there. The credit 'crisis' is a temporary crisis IMO. Sooner or later, the market will sort itself out. Things will return to 'normal'. There may be a recession in Australia (if there is, it will probably be mild IMO) but there will not be a recession in WA - or Qld for that matter. The resources boom will not last forever, but it has a few more years still left in it yet. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 6559192)
There may be a recession in Australia (if there is, it will probably be mild IMO) bit there will not be a recession in WA - or Qld for that matter.
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Re: House prices and the media....
I genuinely think that when its a slow news day, just run a story about house prices going up or down. Doesn't matter which, just print any old crap about it to fill some space. People love to speculate about property prices when we all know its just going up in the long term anyway.
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by bcworld
(Post 6559210)
According to some figures that were in the business news last week, the only state whose services sector is not currently contracting is Vic - if it's true, I've no idea why. The services sector is a big part of the economy, strikes me as odd that cash rich WA would be shrinking too.
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Centurion
(Post 6559213)
I genuinely think that when its a slow news day, just run a story about house prices going up or down. Doesn't matter which, just print any old crap about it to fill some space. People love to speculate about property prices when we all know its just going up in the long term anyway.
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 6559219)
Well said. This is exactly what I think.
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Re: House prices and the media....
Must have been a slow day in sydney pretty sure it was the SMH that had petrol at $8 a litre and australia in recession.:D
Not sure about all this negativity in the markets, economic cycles come and go, always have always will. The the bargain hunters come in and off we go again. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by jad n rich
(Post 6559277)
Must have been a slow day in sydney pretty sure it was the SMH that had petrol at $8 a litre and australia in recession.:D
Yup. Nothing very interesting going on here. It's not like the state government is about to implode or anything serious. Oh... hang on... S |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. I could of course say that maybe there is a higher VI (vested interest) with the WA papers then in UK. i.e. things are going through the floor but the EA's/banks/Construction unions etc etc ask for it to be played down a tad for the moment so they can salvage what they can before it really gets bad. Play it up and kiss good bye to advertising. Also WA media would be aware of the issues in the early 90's when that boom ended and the whole sh*tstorm. I could say that but I would be mad |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559049)
I'm more interested in the different apparoaches of the media to what are big drops in asset values.
Both nations invest heavily - financially and emotionally in houses and yet the UK seems hysterical compared to here. Historically, that is probably in the genes as all first generation Aussies took a risk to get here then often struggled to survive. In the present, our Super is at the whim of the markets and not defined-benefit, in WA our economy is prone to exaggerated boom and bust and farmers are used to drought etc. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Centurion
(Post 6559213)
I genuinely think that when its a slow news day, just run a story about house prices going up or down. Doesn't matter which, just print any old crap about it to fill some space. People love to speculate about property prices when we all know its just going up in the long term anyway.
|
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by seang
(Post 6559399)
... things are going through the floor but the EA's/banks/Construction unions etc etc ask for it to be played down a tad for the moment so they can salvage what they can before it really gets bad. Play it up and kiss good bye to advertising. ....
Or do they charge a one-off advertising fee for a fixed period, or until the house is sold, which would mean they benefit from higher turnover rather than column inches? (Sorry, slow day at work...) |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. Hi, the house prices here in the UK have dropped more than 6% in the last year. Houses just aren't selling here, there are houses on the market that were on last May when we got back from Oz. The main difference with the media I think is that here they over exaggerate everything that goes on and in Perth they just don't mention it and hope nobody notices. That's why everyone that moves there thinks it is Utopia and that there's no drugs, no crime, etc etc.:confused: Jo |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Exile
(Post 6559591)
I was just wondering, with real estate ads in newspapers, is it not the case that the papers stand to gain more advertising revenues when the market is slow and houses are not selling, as the ads stay in for longer? The real estate section of the newspaper tends to be much thicker in a slow market, right?
Or do they charge a one-off advertising fee for a fixed period, or until the house is sold, which would mean they benefit from higher turnover rather than column inches? (Sorry, slow day at work...) But a 3 week stint is a bargain at $3000! :blink: :ohmy: |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. For anyone following the supply/demand debate about Aussie housing, Drutit's comments about oversupply are scary for Perth. For my money, the MSM here are too concerned about RE-related revenues to say anything anywhere near as bearish as the UK papers. Anyone who doubts this should consider the significant trouble the West Australian has gone to to ensure that people pick up both parts of Saturday's West (advertising, rebadging, put all the interesting supplements in part 2 etc). Cheers Mbike Latest News Perth houses prices drop $30,000 - 11 Jul, 06:45am The median house price in Perth has fallen $30,000 down to around $446,000 in the past six months and the rental vacancy has returned to normal for the first time in several years, according to the data released today by the Real Estate Institute of WA. Data released today by the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia show that the Perth median house price has dropped a further $14,000 since March, while the rental vacancy rate has returned to normal for the first time in several years. REIWA's preliminary results for the June quarter show a 3 per cent fall in median price, pulling the metropolitan median down from $460,000 in March to around $446,000. This follows the median price having peaked at the end of last year at $475,000. REIWA President Rob Druitt said the post-boom market was still correcting but had now been hit by the weaker consumer confidence in the overall economy, interest rate uncertainty and petrol prices. "Perth has experienced an overall slump of almost $30,000 in the median price since the beginning of this year, and the June quarter shows that this slump is found right across the metropolitan area and also that the regions have gone backwards a little too," Mr Druitt said. REIWA data for June show that Mandurah dropped by 7 per cent, Greater Bunbury by 7 per cent, Geraldton-Greenough by 9 per cent and Kalgoorlie by around 5 per cent. Mr Druitt said the large number of properties for sale punctured the myth of a housing shortage. "In WA we have a situation of oversupply - not a problem with undersupply, and this is due to the strength of building activity between 2001 and 2007," he said. There were 17,200 properties on the market in June (down 2 per cent on March), including 2,450 blocks of land. Mr Druitt said the once tight vacancy rate for tenants had now returned to normal, with REIWA recording a comfortable 3 per cent vacancy rate, illustrating many new properties had flooded into the rental system as investor/owners now found it a difficult time to sell. "For the first time in several years tenants should now find it much easier to find a suitable home. There is much more stock available and much more competition amongst owners to secure good tenants. "However, rents did increase a little in the June quarter, lifting by $10 per week for houses to a median of $350 per week, while units rose by $10 per week to a median of $320 per week," Mr Druitt said. "Given the large number of properties now being passed over into the rental system, it is reasonable to expect that rental price growth will ease in the latter part of the year. "Landlords need to be mindful of the changing conditions and not to price themselves out of the market," Mr Druitt said. The oversupply of housing is not restricted to the Perth market with both Mandurah and Bunbury recording high stocks of listings along with healthy vacancy rates which have contributed to no movement in rents in these regions during June. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by Amazulu
(Post 6559192)
Some thoughts:
The credit 'crisis' is a temporary crisis IMO. Sooner or later, the market will sort itself out. Things will return to 'normal'. There may be a recession in Australia (if there is, it will probably be mild IMO) but there will not be a recession in WA - or Qld for that matter. The resources boom will not last forever, but it has a few more years still left in it yet. Don't want to sound too negative but there is a perfect storm brewing and blithe optimism and a she'll be right attitude could cost people a lot of money in the next few months. mbike |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by mbike
(Post 6560447)
Don't want to sound too negative but there is a perfect storm brewing and blithe optimism and a she'll be right attitude could cost people a lot of money in the next few months.
mbike |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by mbike
(Post 6560400)
If it helps, Here is the story from WA Business News (you have to subscribe)
For anyone following the supply/demand debate about Aussie housing, Drutit's comments about oversupply are scary for Perth. For my money, the MSM here are too concerned about RE-related revenues to say anything anywhere near as bearish as the UK papers. Anyone who doubts this should consider the significant trouble the West Australian has gone to to ensure that people pick up both parts of Saturday's West (advertising, rebadging, put all the interesting supplements in part 2 etc). Cheers Mbike |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6560478)
Wow - interesting article - thanks. Certainly more dire than the The West portrayed.
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Re: House prices and the media....
The fall in UK prices is part of the big picture that has gripped the nation ever since sub-prime and the credit crisis. The situation in WA is not so bad - the economy is going well. Remember that it's only recently (last 4 weeks if that) that economic slowdown in Australia has shown in the figures and its only in the last few weeks that people are saying that the RBA might have overdone it with interest rate rises.
It was reported that the US and UK were far more exposed to the credit crunch. If Australia is, then it's more indirect which of course might amount to the same thing eventually. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
(Post 6560538)
The fall in UK prices is part of the big picture that has gripped the nation ever since sub-prime and the credit crisis. The situation in WA is not so bad - the economy is going well. Remember that it's only recently (last 4 weeks if that) that economic slowdown in Australia has shown in the figures and its only in the last few weeks that people are saying that the RBA might have overdone it with interest rate rises.
It was reported that the US and UK were far more exposed to the credit crunch. If Australia is, then it's more indirect which of course might amount to the same thing eventually. Without wanting to go on about it, commercial paper issuance worldwide this year has been just $510.3 billion, compared to $2.2 trillion last year and $2.6 trillion in 2006. It was these complex financial instruments which "created" the money that was lent out by banks all over the world - including Australia, and it simply isn't there any more. So what there is left, now costs more - hence the bank rate rises. The RBA can help a little with liquidity through its repo activities (where the banks exchange bundled Residential Backed Mortgage Securities on a rolling basis for treasury notes) but until the private markets open up again everyone will be treading water. mbike |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by mbike
(Post 6560653)
It was these complex financial instruments which "created" the money that was lent out by banks all over the world - including Australia, and it simply isn't there any more.
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
(Post 6560669)
Well that is why one analyst said that the whole thing was such a scam that it signalled almost a complete meltdown of the US system as we've known it in generations...(his article was only talking about the US partly because some of focused on govt intervention etc).
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by mbike
(Post 6560653)
imo the RBA lost the plot before Christmas. That's when the banks started raising rates independently to cover their own increased costs in securing funding. They now take it in turns to bring a new rate rise to market a week or so after the RBA decision. There is also no guarantee that if the RBA lowers rates this will be passed on to customers.
Without wanting to go on about it, commercial paper issuance worldwide this year has been just $510.3 billion, compared to $2.2 trillion last year and $2.6 trillion in 2006. It was these complex financial instruments which "created" the money that was lent out by banks all over the world - including Australia, and it simply isn't there any more. So what there is left, now costs more - hence the bank rate rises. The RBA can help a little with liquidity through its repo activities (where the banks exchange bundled Residential Backed Mortgage Securities on a rolling basis for treasury notes) but until the private markets open up again everyone will be treading water. mbike what is the annual real estate tax in Aus and insurance? in %s |
Re: House prices and the media....
So many different views on the WA economy, house prices employment hard
to get to the bottom of it? One BE Say fantastic booming resources mining etc next BE say its F----d house prices dropping Slowdown in Construction is there two Perths ? Or is the WA Government filling heads with rubbish I feel sorry for anyone heading to WA seems like a lottery and an expensive one at that :frown::frown: |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by NKSK version 2
(Post 6559035)
Something which has been mentioned before but was reinforced today.
On the front page of The West Australian today there is a news item stating that the average Perth house price has fallen 6% in 6 months. I can't even find the article on their website. I don't think that there's any doubt - expressed by the bulls or the bears - that this is a signficant drop in prices. And yet in the UK, where houses prices have droppped 6.1% over the last 12 months - i.e. at half the rate of WA - the media acts as if it is the end of the world. "Biggest drop in two decades""etc etc Discuss. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
(Post 6560538)
The fall in UK prices is part of the big picture that has gripped the nation ever since sub-prime and the credit crisis. The situation in WA is not so bad - the economy is going well. Remember that it's only recently (last 4 weeks if that) that economic slowdown in Australia has shown in the figures and its only in the last few weeks that people are saying that the RBA might have overdone it with interest rate rises.
It was reported that the US and UK were far more exposed to the credit crunch. If Australia is, then it's more indirect which of course might amount to the same thing eventually. |
Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by mbike
(Post 6560755)
The scary thing is that globalisation has exported that system all around the anglo-saxon world. Fractional reserve banking and an over-reliance on alchemical money creation is now the norm almost everywhere. If you are old enough to remember life in the 70's and very early 80's, you'll remember there simply wasn't as much credit going around. But it was credit where credit was due. That's kind of back where we're heading, if we can avoid a global meltdown on the way...:blink:
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Re: House prices and the media....
Originally Posted by ShozInOz
(Post 6561992)
The big newspapers in Australia are vested interests because thy also operate housesearch websites, which generate huge advertising revenue. House price fall stories would have their clients up in arms. While UK newspapers can be very negative, Australian newspapers are biased in the opposite direction. I prefer the more positive slant of Australian papers, but prefer the depth of the British broadsheets. I still read online the Guardian and Independent instead of the SMH and Australian simply because they are better newsapers.
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