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House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Old May 15th 2009, 11:07 pm
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Default House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

There coming down... just another 10% and then I can start to look properly and own my place...

Anyone else looking and finding the same..

Investors selling up, and desperate sellers, overcommitted..
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Old May 15th 2009, 11:18 pm
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by La Vida loca View Post
There coming down... just another 10% and then I can start to look properly and own my place...

Anyone else looking and finding the same..

Investors selling up, and desperate sellers, overcommitted..






In some areas thats true, where I live has just had a 16% rise over the last quarter.

I suppose it just depends on the exact location.
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Old May 15th 2009, 11:41 pm
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by jond View Post
In some areas thats true, where I live has just had a 16% rise over the last quarter.

I suppose it just depends on the exact location.
More likely that the more expensive houses of the area sold and therefore giving an inflated price rise.
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Old May 15th 2009, 11:49 pm
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by La Vida loca View Post
There coming down... just another 10% and then I can start to look properly and own my place...

Anyone else looking and finding the same..

Investors selling up, and desperate sellers, overcommitted..
hmmm wait a year,carry on renting,then look at buying
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Old May 15th 2009, 11:59 pm
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by Siren & Brian View Post
More likely that the more expensive houses of the area sold and therefore giving an inflated price rise.







Maybe? I am no expert on the housing market
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Old May 16th 2009, 12:18 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

I've been following certain areas of Sydney's inner West for about 2 years now. What I've noticed in the past 6 months is:
  • First Home buyer properties (up to the $700k to $800k mark) have gone up by 10 to 15% this calendar year and are selling rapidly.
  • Top end properties (over $2m) have completely stopped selling although another one is added to the for sale list every few weeks.
  • Prices in between these levels (particularly up to $1.5m) are selling at the rate of about 1 a month. They either sell within a few weeks of coming on the market or don't sell at all and vanish from the listings after about 10 weeks of showing.
  • I've also noticed on the first home buyer end is properties that last year sat around on the market for months dropping prices but being unable to sell are now coming back on the market at their original highest price and selling practically instantly.

I'm seeing the similar in the areas of Sutherland Shire I've watched although the difference there seems to be first home owner stops just above $600k and nothing above that is moving.
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Old May 16th 2009, 12:38 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

things seem very inconsistent in oz using the median house price. If 1 $1 million house sold in a month, I assume that would be the median price for the month. That house may be vastly reduced from the last time it sold. Also all the other houses in the area might be in $600k range. This makes it meaningless and really skews the figures.

This happened in Templestowe vic when a few $1M plus houses sold and showed a quarterly rise of 40%. The median is about $700k

In the uk, Nationwide method is described here
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/method_qs.htm
may not be any more accurate, but seems to have a big influence and is based on actual lending for that area over time
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Old May 16th 2009, 1:07 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by carlap View Post
things seem very inconsistent in oz using the median house price. If 1 $1 million house sold in a month, I assume that would be the median price for the month. That house may be vastly reduced from the last time it sold. Also all the other houses in the area might be in $600k range. This makes it meaningless and really skews the figures.
I agree with that conclusion.

Take into account also that the lower price market has been booming with sales recently, due to the FHBG and Boost, and that will emphasise the lower prices.
eg:
If 10 houses sell for 800k, 10 for 600k and 10 for 400k, the median is $600k
But, if prices rise by 10% and the next quarter another 30 houses sell for:
If 2 houses sell for 880k, 8 for 660k and 20 for 440k, the median is $440k, showing a median value drop of 26%, even though ALL prices have gone up 10%.

Interesting isn't it...

That is an 'extreme' example to show how it could give very wrong figures.

I also read this somewhere:
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australian median house prices fell by 2.2% in the March quarter 2009.
  • Residex reported a fall of 0.8% for house prices in the March quarter.
  • RP Data reported a 1.5% rise in the March quarter.
 
Old May 16th 2009, 1:47 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Sub 400k houses have actually gone up in price in the last few months thanks to the First time house buyers boost....thats what i've observed anyway.

Lee
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Old May 16th 2009, 1:59 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
I agree with that conclusion.

Take into account also that the lower price market has been booming with sales recently, due to the FHBG and Boost, and that will emphasise the lower prices.
eg:
If 10 houses sell for 800k, 10 for 600k and 10 for 400k, the median is $600k
But, if prices rise by 10% and the next quarter another 30 houses sell for:
If 2 houses sell for 880k, 8 for 660k and 20 for 440k, the median is $440k, showing a median value drop of 26%, even though ALL prices have gone up 10%.

Interesting isn't it...

That is an 'extreme' example to show how it could give very wrong figures.

I also read this somewhere:
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australian median house prices fell by 2.2% in the March quarter 2009.
  • Residex reported a fall of 0.8% for house prices in the March quarter.
  • RP Data reported a 1.5% rise in the March quarter.
I use cost per square metre too allow comparison between homes and ignore these nationalised stats. Factual data on the area you are buying in is more relevant.

6 months ago the area was $1600 to $1800 per square metre now its $1100 to $1300. Between these ranges is the bargaining or std of house presentation. But most are basically land only value with homes ready for detonation on top. These individual comparisons for me show a close to 40% decline.
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Old May 16th 2009, 2:30 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

This is a good graph to show the true value of median prices:


http://www.myrp.com.au/rpdata/servle...ices+(graphed)

All over the place, with median prices of between $390k and $485k being quoted in just 12 months.

But, between 2005 and 2009, there has been an average rise of 5.95% each year.
 
Old May 16th 2009, 7:42 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

I am looking at house prices between 350k and 450k and there appears to be a reduction in price, or at least there appears to be better value for money on these prices - WA.
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Old May 16th 2009, 9:09 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Where are you looking? .....I'm also looking at houses upto the $500,000 range and all i can say is if anything there going up......!

all the best plumb.....i blame the grant....
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Old May 16th 2009, 9:15 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

Depends on where you are looking, here in my area in Tasmania, the prices are up (not very much, I think but still up)

When the FHOG boost starts to be phased out later this year, we may see a shift in prices, as I do really feel that all the grant did was push up the prices, especially for new homes with the full $21k

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Old May 16th 2009, 9:32 am
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Default Re: House Prices Keep Tumbling in Aus

I am a first time buyer and in this area, the Hunter Valley, it is one of the first questions they ask if you are a first time buyer. You get a quick response from the agents when you make a query so I think that things must be desperate.
In my very uniformed opinion I would say that prices are falling here in the Hunter Region. I have seen unit prices fall a lot along with sub-$300,000 houses.

A somewhat worrying fact is that 2 out of 3 agents I have spoken to are British Expats themselves. Must be a sign of how bad things are in the UK.
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