House Price Serious Warning
Nov 29th 2003, 2:02 am
#16
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Joined: Jun 2003
Location: Eatons Hill, Brisbane
Posts: 2,289
Re: House Price Serious Warning
Originally posted by badgersmount
mate.
is this a warning from the estate agents body, which everyone is trying to keep a secret, or it is just your guess about what is happening in your area?
badge
mate.
is this a warning from the estate agents body, which everyone is trying to keep a secret, or it is just your guess about what is happening in your area?
badge
Hi Badge
i am a secretary for a 'countrywide' estate agents and we haven't seen a dramatic slowdown at all over the last few months, yes it is slower this month but it always is at this time of year. We will sell ours after christmas but that is because we want to be 'ready' when our app is approved not because of a market slowdown/decline
with regards
rach & family
Nov 29th 2003, 2:55 am
#17
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
What's a price crash?. So prices drop 15-20%, they've gone up 100-200% over the last 5 years (well around here they have). You do the maths. The fundamentals of the UK property market are sound, It's a small Country with a lot of people, It's an affluent country with a strong job market & interest rates are at an all time low & should be for the next couple of years. I'm confident that it is a long term, safe investment.
Nov 29th 2003, 9:07 am
#18
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 11,149
Originally posted by Amazulu
What's a price crash?. So prices drop 15-20%, they've gone up 100-200% over the last 5 years (well around here they have). You do the maths. The fundamentals of the UK property market are sound, It's a small Country with a lot of people, It's an affluent country with a strong job market & interest rates are at an all time low & should be for the next couple of years. I'm confident that it is a long term, safe investment.
What's a price crash?. So prices drop 15-20%, they've gone up 100-200% over the last 5 years (well around here they have). You do the maths. The fundamentals of the UK property market are sound, It's a small Country with a lot of people, It's an affluent country with a strong job market & interest rates are at an all time low & should be for the next couple of years. I'm confident that it is a long term, safe investment.
The problem with a crash is for those who have overextended themselves, find they are unable to keep up with mortgage payments due to rising rates and that the value of the mortgage is above the value of the house (negative equity).
The nightmare for potential emigrants is a dead market where the house won't shift whatever the price. The interest rate rises associated with a crash can kill a market.
Then there are the knock on affects to the economy to worry about. Areas such as building, DIY etc will get hammered and there will be a knock to retail sales.
Stopping the economy getting into this state is hard as interest rates affect a very slow private sector. It is because the economy has some healthy growth forecast that rates are now on the rise.
Nov 29th 2003, 6:39 pm
#19
Guest
Posts: n/a
Same story in Oz
Originally posted by bondipom
The problem with a crash is for those who have overextended themselves, find they are unable to keep up with mortgage payments due to rising rates and that the value of the mortgage is above the value of the house (negative equity).
The nightmare for potential emigrants is a dead market where the house won't shift whatever the price. The interest rate rises associated with a crash can kill a market.
Then there are the knock on affects to the economy to worry about. Areas such as building, DIY etc will get hammered and there will be a knock to retail sales.
Stopping the economy getting into this state is hard as interest rates affect a very slow private sector. It is because the economy has some healthy growth forecast that rates are now on the rise.
The problem with a crash is for those who have overextended themselves, find they are unable to keep up with mortgage payments due to rising rates and that the value of the mortgage is above the value of the house (negative equity).
The nightmare for potential emigrants is a dead market where the house won't shift whatever the price. The interest rate rises associated with a crash can kill a market.
Then there are the knock on affects to the economy to worry about. Areas such as building, DIY etc will get hammered and there will be a knock to retail sales.
Stopping the economy getting into this state is hard as interest rates affect a very slow private sector. It is because the economy has some healthy growth forecast that rates are now on the rise.
Nov 29th 2003, 11:15 pm
#20
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Joined: Jun 2002
Location: Gold Coast- the best place in the world
Posts: 3,196
No signs of prices dropping around here ( Surrey S London) They seem to be much the same. I am sick of hearing that they are going to drop, scaremongering again I am sure or highly regional.
Nov 29th 2003, 11:48 pm
#21
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 369
Re: House Price Serious Warning
Its a far more pressing worry that house prices in Oz have shot up and still are, and that the exchange rate is lower and shows no signs of improvement..... You wont buy a cheap house in Oz anymore (in real terms)..... This has cost most people a couple of bedrooms !!!
Nov 30th 2003, 2:17 am
#22
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Joined: Jun 2003
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posts: 524
Will house prices come down?
Estate agents and mortgage companies say no, economists say yes. I go with with the economists on this, house prices are cyclic.
A lot of the recent buy-to-let owners will get badly burnt. In a rising market it is easy to convince yourself you have a talent for making money from property. Parallels with sharetraders in the dotcom boom. Like upturns, downturns are always overdone, I anticipate a 30-40% correction.
A 40% drop is the same as a 66% gain.
A lot of the recent buy-to-let owners will get badly burnt. In a rising market it is easy to convince yourself you have a talent for making money from property. Parallels with sharetraders in the dotcom boom. Like upturns, downturns are always overdone, I anticipate a 30-40% correction.
A 40% drop is the same as a 66% gain.
Nov 30th 2003, 1:11 pm
#23
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,397
Originally posted by tinaj
No signs of prices dropping around here ( Surrey S London) They seem to be much the same. I am sick of hearing that they are going to drop, scaremongering again I am sure or highly regional.
No signs of prices dropping around here ( Surrey S London) They seem to be much the same. I am sick of hearing that they are going to drop, scaremongering again I am sure or highly regional.
But the fact remains that the bubble in house pricing has made/forced a large number of people to over-extend themselves. They've been able to because of the low interest rates and because the lenders have forgotten the last bubble.
Interest rates are going to go up rather than down, and at some stage there are going to be a lot of people who can't afford their mortgage payments. A few thousand forced sales could easily start a spiral out of control until the corrrection burns out.
IMHO!
:scared: :scared: :scared:
Nov 30th 2003, 8:43 pm
#24
Purveyor of Beaches
Joined: May 2003
Location: Caloundra Sunshine Coast Yippee
Posts: 374
What a nice negative & speculative topic. I believe mystic meg & co should perhaps believe everyone they talk to & you will come out of it with a balanced opinion, if as the figures & statistics suggest there is still a increase in the quieter periods then thats something to be optamistic about.
If it drops 40% the country would go to the wall, I can see the rental market improving tho
If it drops 40% the country would go to the wall, I can see the rental market improving tho
Nov 30th 2003, 8:50 pm
#25
Forum Regular
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: surrey
Posts: 84
OK
Want to know what the prices are doing in your area. this site gives a breakdown by postcode, and type of house.
http://www.proviser.com/regional/postcodes/
Want to know what the prices are doing in your area. this site gives a breakdown by postcode, and type of house.
http://www.proviser.com/regional/postcodes/
Nov 30th 2003, 9:27 pm
#26
Guest
Posts: n/a
The market has to DROP when the poor first time buyers can't buy, or when rates climb back to 6-7pc. I wonder where the first time buyers are getting their 20k deposits from for that 200k one bed flat. and then paying 80pc of a 30k salary for the mortage..
I actually feel sorry for the poor buggers. There are people walking around in nice homes, like the whinging pom from that programme who is not equipped to deal with life, when there are hard working professionals with jobs they work every hour in , and still can't afford to buy.
I bought 3 years ago and I thought that was the top!
The other thing of course, is that 1 rise of 1 pc on the mg might increse your repayment by say 150 dollars a month, which might be 10 pc of salary, but it may not reduce the price as well...by 10pc as people compete to buy a home...and it all goes up again..
badge
I actually feel sorry for the poor buggers. There are people walking around in nice homes, like the whinging pom from that programme who is not equipped to deal with life, when there are hard working professionals with jobs they work every hour in , and still can't afford to buy.
I bought 3 years ago and I thought that was the top!
The other thing of course, is that 1 rise of 1 pc on the mg might increse your repayment by say 150 dollars a month, which might be 10 pc of salary, but it may not reduce the price as well...by 10pc as people compete to buy a home...and it all goes up again..
badge
Last edited by badgersmount; Nov 30th 2003 at 9:29 pm.
Nov 30th 2003, 11:39 pm
#27
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2003
Location: Singapore
Posts: 216
Re: Will house prices come down?
Originally posted by ossigeno
Estate agents and mortgage companies say no, economists say yes. I go with with the economists on this, house prices are cyclic.
A lot of the recent buy-to-let owners will get badly burnt. In a rising market it is easy to convince yourself you have a talent for making money from property. Parallels with sharetraders in the dotcom boom. Like upturns, downturns are always overdone, I anticipate a 30-40% correction.
A 40% drop is the same as a 66% gain.
Estate agents and mortgage companies say no, economists say yes. I go with with the economists on this, house prices are cyclic.
A lot of the recent buy-to-let owners will get badly burnt. In a rising market it is easy to convince yourself you have a talent for making money from property. Parallels with sharetraders in the dotcom boom. Like upturns, downturns are always overdone, I anticipate a 30-40% correction.
A 40% drop is the same as a 66% gain.
Just a sober comment from Hong Kong regarding property prices here.
Property prices have fallen about 60 to 70% since the 'peak' in mid-1997........just think about that for a while, a 60-70% fall in a low tax, low interest environment like Hong Kong.
Yes we had a political dimension with the hand-over, but it just goes to show that the property market is all about 'sentiment'.
The UK really is in debt!
Cheers
Dec 1st 2003, 12:04 am
#28
Dugongidae Member
Joined: Feb 2002
Location: Wimbledon, England
Posts: 441
laws of supply and demand dictate house prices will not fall by much.
they have already corrected slightly in central london and been very flat for a year in and around london but london is not the uk norm as the wealth from the city influences house prices.
in the rest of the uk we require something like 150k new houses a year to stand still and we only build less than half that amount.
prescott can build all the houses he wants in east london but that will just make the nice bits even more desirable.
they have already corrected slightly in central london and been very flat for a year in and around london but london is not the uk norm as the wealth from the city influences house prices.
in the rest of the uk we require something like 150k new houses a year to stand still and we only build less than half that amount.
prescott can build all the houses he wants in east london but that will just make the nice bits even more desirable.
Dec 1st 2003, 5:37 am
#29
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Originally posted by dugongs
laws of supply and demand dictate house prices will not fall by much.
they have already corrected slightly in central london and been very flat for a year in and around london but london is not the uk norm as the wealth from the city influences house prices.
in the rest of the uk we require something like 150k new houses a year to stand still and we only build less than half that amount.
prescott can build all the houses he wants in east london but that will just make the nice bits even more desirable.
laws of supply and demand dictate house prices will not fall by much.
they have already corrected slightly in central london and been very flat for a year in and around london but london is not the uk norm as the wealth from the city influences house prices.
in the rest of the uk we require something like 150k new houses a year to stand still and we only build less than half that amount.
prescott can build all the houses he wants in east london but that will just make the nice bits even more desirable.
UK: small place, lots of people, property is a long term safe bet.
Australia: big place, few people (you could fit the whole UK population on the east coast with half an acre each & there would still be plenty of space left). The market will be okay, but the fundamentals are different.
Dec 1st 2003, 9:11 am
#30
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Joined: May 2003
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Originally posted by Amazulu
Totally agree. The fundamentals are right.
UK: small place, lots of people, property is a long term safe bet.
Australia: big place, few people (you could fit the whole UK population on the east coast with half an acre each & there would still be plenty of space left). The market will be okay, but the fundamentals are different.
Totally agree. The fundamentals are right.
UK: small place, lots of people, property is a long term safe bet.
Australia: big place, few people (you could fit the whole UK population on the east coast with half an acre each & there would still be plenty of space left). The market will be okay, but the fundamentals are different.
Australia: big place with not an awful lot of it any use for building or supplying with water!
