Hard landing for housing boom: RBA
#1
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Hard landing for housing boom: RBA
You want the good news Australians are lending far too much dosh so house prices could fall and the bad news is this will drive interest rates up not down so there are few winners and maybe more about to join the dole .
THE boom in housing prices was no longer sustainable, and the surge in lending that had helped fuel it might leave financial institutions vulnerable to the "inevitable" collapse in prices, the Reserve Bank warned yesterday.
The bank's latest quarterly statement on policy sketched an improving outlook for the world economy, and signalled it no longer assumes the next move in interest rates will be down.
Market economists predicted yesterday that as a result of the statement rates will remain on hold – an official rate of 4.75 per cent or a standard variable home loan rate of 6.58 per cent – for the rest of 2003.
But in its most serious comments on the runaway growth in lending, the central bank says it is worried about damage to both financial institutions and borrowers from the current lending spree.
"The longer the rapid increase in household borrowing continues, the greater is the risk that at some point households will need to adjust the structure of their balance sheets with potentially adverse consequences for the economy and financial institutions," it says.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...E12377,00.html
THE boom in housing prices was no longer sustainable, and the surge in lending that had helped fuel it might leave financial institutions vulnerable to the "inevitable" collapse in prices, the Reserve Bank warned yesterday.
The bank's latest quarterly statement on policy sketched an improving outlook for the world economy, and signalled it no longer assumes the next move in interest rates will be down.
Market economists predicted yesterday that as a result of the statement rates will remain on hold – an official rate of 4.75 per cent or a standard variable home loan rate of 6.58 per cent – for the rest of 2003.
But in its most serious comments on the runaway growth in lending, the central bank says it is worried about damage to both financial institutions and borrowers from the current lending spree.
"The longer the rapid increase in household borrowing continues, the greater is the risk that at some point households will need to adjust the structure of their balance sheets with potentially adverse consequences for the economy and financial institutions," it says.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...E12377,00.html
#2
First-time buyer loans at record low
By Lydia Adetunji Published: July 19 2003 5:00
Loans to first-time buyers fell to a record low last month as high prices continued to hamstring those trying to get a foot on the housing ladder, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Friday.
First-time buyers accounted for just 29 per cent of all mortgage lending for house purchases in June, compared with 44 per cent in the same month last year. The figure is the lowest since CML records began in 1974.
The data suggest that home loans are a problem for first-time buyers, despite the fact that interest rates are near 50-year lows and mortgages are correspondingly cheap.
Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, said this was beginning to make it harder for sellers further up the chain to sell properties.
"This is one of the reasons why the CML expects the slowdown in momentum to continue, as lending discipline and affordability will constrain the potential for rapid house price growth.
"But [mortgage] lending potential remains extremely positive, not least because we expect remortgaging to remain strong."
The CML said gross mortgage lending reached an estimated £22.5bn in June, compared with £17.1bn in June 2002.
The proportion of mortgage lending accounted for by remortgaging - while still at historically high levels - fell to 46 per cent in June from 51 per cent in May.
George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said it remained to be seen if current levels of mortgage lending would continue. "But with the weakening in the housing market expected to persist going forward [this is] unlikely," he said.
The CML numbers also showed a rise in the number of people taking out fixed-rate mortgages.
Separately, British Bankers' Association figures published yesterday showed mortgage lending rose by £5.3bn in June, more than May's £4.6bn increase.
"As people have grown accustomed to the lower costs of carrying debt, there seem to be few signs of any real fall in borrowing demand," said David Dooks, director of BBA statistics.
By Lydia Adetunji Published: July 19 2003 5:00
Loans to first-time buyers fell to a record low last month as high prices continued to hamstring those trying to get a foot on the housing ladder, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said on Friday.
First-time buyers accounted for just 29 per cent of all mortgage lending for house purchases in June, compared with 44 per cent in the same month last year. The figure is the lowest since CML records began in 1974.
The data suggest that home loans are a problem for first-time buyers, despite the fact that interest rates are near 50-year lows and mortgages are correspondingly cheap.
Michael Coogan, director-general of the CML, said this was beginning to make it harder for sellers further up the chain to sell properties.
"This is one of the reasons why the CML expects the slowdown in momentum to continue, as lending discipline and affordability will constrain the potential for rapid house price growth.
"But [mortgage] lending potential remains extremely positive, not least because we expect remortgaging to remain strong."
The CML said gross mortgage lending reached an estimated £22.5bn in June, compared with £17.1bn in June 2002.
The proportion of mortgage lending accounted for by remortgaging - while still at historically high levels - fell to 46 per cent in June from 51 per cent in May.
George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said it remained to be seen if current levels of mortgage lending would continue. "But with the weakening in the housing market expected to persist going forward [this is] unlikely," he said.
The CML numbers also showed a rise in the number of people taking out fixed-rate mortgages.
Separately, British Bankers' Association figures published yesterday showed mortgage lending rose by £5.3bn in June, more than May's £4.6bn increase.
"As people have grown accustomed to the lower costs of carrying debt, there seem to be few signs of any real fall in borrowing demand," said David Dooks, director of BBA statistics.
#3
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Originally posted by SteveBannister
First-time buyer loans at record low
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First-time buyer loans at record low
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"Despite very affordable mortgage rates, high house prices are making it difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market," said CML director general Michael Coogan.
"This is beginning to make it harder for sellers further up the chain to sell their properties. This is one of the reasons why the CML expects the slowdown in momentum to continue, as lending discipline and affordability will constrain the potential for rapid house price growth."
#4
Originally posted by pommie bastard
Brit Media dont you love them always make a Sunny day look like rain.
Brit Media dont you love them always make a Sunny day look like rain.
Take your blinkers off, there's problems here as well, you know.
#5
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Originally posted by SteveBannister
We don't need the brit media to make a sunny day look like rain, we've got you!
Take your blinkers off, there's problems here as well, you know.
We don't need the brit media to make a sunny day look like rain, we've got you!
Take your blinkers off, there's problems here as well, you know.
Today in peaceful Australia?
HUNDREDS of police and firefighters swarmed on to Sydney's vast commuter network late yesterday after police received information that four men of Micronesian descent might try to place a package on a train.
New South Wales Police Assistant Commissioner Dick Adams assured the public it was not a terrorist alert and that the trains were safe.
Passengers were searched and some were patted down during the peak-hour operation as trains continued to run. Police looked for anything that resembled an unattended bag or package.
THE State's 91 MPs will have their movements controlled and monitored at Parliament House in a big security upgrade sparked by fears of a terrorist attack.
From Monday, new internal security doors throughout the building will be locked and MPs and staff will have to use a computerised card to move between areas.
Carparking bays near Parliament will be removed, bollards will be put at critical access points and the building's rear laneway will be closed to cut the threat of a car bomb.
#6
i'm sure it must have been said before, but if you don't like it here in oz why don't you just piss off whence you came?
#7
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Originally posted by JonMills
i'm sure it must have been said before, but if you don't like it here in oz why don't you just piss off whence you came?
i'm sure it must have been said before, but if you don't like it here in oz why don't you just piss off whence you came?
#8
i spotted on another thread that he is off. things must be bad in perth for him to want to go bnack to the UK.
he'll be back - they always come back
#9
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 4,432
Originally posted by JonMills
i spotted on another thread that he is off. things must be bad in perth for him to want to go bnack to the UK.
he'll be back - they always come back
i spotted on another thread that he is off. things must be bad in perth for him to want to go bnack to the UK.
he'll be back - they always come back
Alternatively, he might make an interesting, if somewhat talkative, garden gnome.
#10
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Location: Perth Arse end of the planet
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Originally posted by JonMills
i spotted on another thread that he is off. things must be bad in perth for him to want to go bnack to the UK.
he'll be back - they always come back
i spotted on another thread that he is off. things must be bad in perth for him to want to go bnack to the UK.
he'll be back - they always come back
#11
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by pommie bastard
I know the UKs problems most of them are the same here as here.
Today in peaceful Australia?
HUNDREDS of police and firefighters swarmed on to Sydney's vast commuter network late yesterday after police received information that four men of Micronesian descent might try to place a package on a train.
New South Wales Police Assistant Commissioner Dick Adams assured the public it was not a terrorist alert and that the trains were safe.
for anything that resembled an unattended bag or package.
Reminded me of on the train in London and was that bag in the corner a bomb left by the IRA.
Must admit I dont like to travel on Sydney trains alone - but thousand do. Good to see that security was out there checking just in case.
A word of advise for any ladies travelling via Sydney and Central Station - dont hang your handbag on the back of the toilet door
like I did - someone might just come over the top and grab your bag!!
Carol
I know the UKs problems most of them are the same here as here.
Today in peaceful Australia?
HUNDREDS of police and firefighters swarmed on to Sydney's vast commuter network late yesterday after police received information that four men of Micronesian descent might try to place a package on a train.
New South Wales Police Assistant Commissioner Dick Adams assured the public it was not a terrorist alert and that the trains were safe.
for anything that resembled an unattended bag or package.
Reminded me of on the train in London and was that bag in the corner a bomb left by the IRA.
Must admit I dont like to travel on Sydney trains alone - but thousand do. Good to see that security was out there checking just in case.
A word of advise for any ladies travelling via Sydney and Central Station - dont hang your handbag on the back of the toilet door
like I did - someone might just come over the top and grab your bag!!
Carol