bertie100

I am waiting to change lots of GBP - if the interest rates do go up on Thursday will it affect the exchange rate immediately or will it take a couple of days. I know it's a very vague question and probably know one knows the answer, but does anyone have any previous experience.

I'm panicking as I need to transfer funds from my building society to my commonwealth bank account to then transfer to Oz.

Cheers

tennisoz

As reported elsewhere interest rates were just increased 0.25% in Australia and a similar rate rise is predicted soon in the UK. Usually (but not always) a rise in interest rates strengthens a currency and a fall in interest rates weakens a currency. This is because funds in that currency can earn a higher return.

What is going to happen as far as the exchange rate between GBP and AUS$ is difficult to predict and there will be short term and long term movements. I'm no expert on this (otherwise I would be a retired multi-millionaire) but if it helps, we are about to transfer GBP's and we are holding off until after the expected rise in UK interest rates (in the hope that the rate will be slightly better than it is now). Long term though the concensus of a lot of experts is that the £ may fall to around $2.20 sometime next year. Any slight strengthening in the £ may only be temporary if at all.

TennisOz

scallywag

Hi

I am in the same position waiting to sell my house to exchange money, from what I had heard a .25% increase will not make the £ any stronger as this is what they are expecting it to rise by, our only hope is they go really mad and increase it by .5%, from what I have read I don't think it will get back to 2.4aud for a £

bertie100

Hopefully if there is a similar increase to the gbp interest rates it will push it back up above 2.4 just long enough to change money...

I've been sitting at my computer all day (i'm a graphic designer) watching the exchange rate sliding down.....
cheers

Enzo&Chloe

The BOE raise by 0.25% tomorrow is widely expected. If it occurs it has already been taken in to account by the market. So there should be no major movements.

However if the BOE increases rates by more than 0.25% or does not increase them, this will have an impact on the market.

This is just my humble opinion, and nobody should ever listen to me.

tennisoz

Yeah, I suppose both interest rate rises have been predicted and expected and factored in so there probably won't be any significant or long lasting move away from the long term trend of the £ sliding downwards against the $. I said it elsewhere but I've been fortunate to come to the UK with $'s when it was $1.33 to the £ and I've transferred £ savings back to Oz at $3.02. Unfortunately our house sale proceeds are looking like only getting $2.20 or thereabouts. Some you win and some you lose.

TennisOz

tennisoz

Someone else made a point recently about doing a 3 way exchange. ie change £'s into a currency that the £ was strengthening against which could then be change into $'s and give you more. I know there is commission to consider but some banks eg Commonwealth only charge £15 flat per transfer which would only be £30 on 2 transfers. Surely some foreign exchange dealer may be able to give advice on whether it was possible to not lose out as much if the £ is falling against the $. Just a thought and might be worth investigating on a large sum.

TennisOz

bertie100

I'll look into that 3 way exchange thing - otherwise I'm just going to bit the bullet and change it tomorrow.....

......or the day after that.

tennisoz

Good luck

TennisOz

nixstuff

http://www.dailyfx.com/currency_aud_forecast.html

http://www.hifx.co.uk/pservices/emigration.asp (check out the graph, crack open a Wolf Blass)

Bang goes the cash for buying a car. We're screwed - $30,000 down since Feb alone, heading for a further $15,000 loss if it continues down to 2.2 as predicted.

Guess it's yet more debt at the other end.

This had all better be bloody well worth it..

Enzo&Chloe

There is also the traders margin to consider.

You do sometimes get small discrepencies in the market. If you have a few million, you can take advantage of them. they last for a few tenths of a second. (People have computers to monitor them and trade them). They can them make themselves a few pounds.

For the mortal investor is a few units , then this is not an option.

So unless of course you *KNOW* the future of currency rates. trading via other currencies *DOES NOT* work.

You could always consider a future option, to protect yourself against currency movements.

louH

I'm back with my humble opinions!

I have not properly checked out the possibility of a 3 (or more way) currency exchange but I would guess you need an account to pay the US$ or whatever into before making the change to A$ (even if your doing the trade one after the other in theory your bank can't hold your money in their accounts). Also as the industry is so bound by money laundering rules I would not be surprised if moving cash about like this was not restricted.

Think its worth repeating - I read on the BBC website there is a 95% chance the MPC will move their interest rate, with this so widely known don't hold your breath for a change in exchange rates - you could be a nasty shade of purple before anything happens!

I hate this whole situation - I've also seen a massive slide from what I thought I was going to get to what I actually got - lets just hope there is a dip in the rate of house price inflation so that we can all have at least one bit of good luck!

louH

Oh also was going to say if you are afraid of further rate decreases and have a bit of cash sitting around you could think of arranging a forward contract with currencies direct. Basically you put down 5-10% of the amount you want to exchange, and this sets the rate at today's level. You can then exchange anytime for the next year at today's rate. Good if you think the rate is got further to drop. Sure the boys at Currencies direct can give you more info than me.

tennisoz

Thanks very much for the great links. You're right, crack open the Wolf Blass if you are going to change GBP into AUS$ in the near future. Good luck.

TennisOz

Goodpubmisser

The Australian dollar got affected by the Asian fall out a few years ago and is now on the way back up.

As mentioned interest rates have started going up here again and the economy is good mainly due to the housing market and commodity prices increasing.

If I was to speculate I would say that the Aus$ will be heading up against the GB pound for the next couple of years.

When is the UK going to adopt the Euro?