Tez

Hi All my Pommie chums.
I know this isnt exactly the most interesting subject of them all!!!But pay bloody attention!!

Next week the MPC of the bank of England sit and reveal what goes where with Interest rates.The word on the Forex markets is that Four out of the six members want a Increase in UK Interest rates.Possibly a quater percentage point.

Sentiment towars the GPB will be favourable for the short term and a Rise in the Pound against the $ should occur.How much and for how long is enybodies guess.Ive never known the Pound to be stuck at the 2.40 mark for so long???

Anyone with any thoughts on this??Not to technical though.....

The pound has increased against some other currencies marginally,but seems to be stuck on the $ these last few months.
One informed reason for the stagnation by analyist is that the UK Gov has borrowed so much dosh this year (heading for 50 BILLION) That sentiment for the Pound has been weak from overseas investors.

Bloody Labour W--kers,Im thousands of miles away,and still what those smarmy tossers do in London effects me(and needless to say Thousands of other Ex-Pats)

Sandra

I am slightly confused - are you saying the AUS $ will go down against the mighty pound? At the moment we are looking at 2.42 approx - which is still good for an average over the last ten years. The rise to 2.8+ was abnormal.

And another question...as an expat UK to AUS, surely I would like the exchange rate...my AUS $ buying more pounds these days, so roll on the labour government?!?

Cheers

markeh

Hi Sandra,
I think that he was trying to say that when we emmigrate to Oz we wuill get more A$ to the £.
The value of the pound goes up, since on the money markets they buy more pounds.
This is good for all those emmigarting or with income in the UK but living in Oz.

Bye
Markeh

dugongs

agree with you about the uk labour government but still borrowings are only about 3% gdp which is low compared to other major world economies within the g7.

ozzie has risen against us$ in past few weeks given expectation of higher rates in oz and weak us but has been fairly steady against the pound as expectation are for a move higher here as well. Surely any differential in rates will be roughly the same as both countries move higher together.

claireg3

I'd love to be able to say that I understand all this money market stuff but I amheavily reliant on the advice of "the experts" ie the money traders. Having spoken to a few of them the general consensus is that the $AU is going to hit $2.3:£1 by the end of the year. This is taking into account the probable interest rate rise in the UK.

Whether this is what will happen waits to be seen but we took the plunge last week and bought some currency at 2.4 and we will buy the rest just before we go regardless of the rate.

We have bought our currency and now the exchange rate means nothing to us as the deed is done.

Happy trading:scared:

Claire

tinaj

We are hoping the exchange rate goes up to 2.5 so we will be only transfering a small amount f money initially. Hopefully it will rise a bit over the next 3 months. I will be happy if we can get $2.5.

WBB

yes i agree tina, as we will not be going anywhere for 8 months and even then we will still have to sell our house, i would gladly take 2.5 this time next year.

i got a feeling it will be more like 2.3

Don

Good old sterling looks 5-10% over-valued to me against a basket of the big currencies.

What do I think will happen within 6 months? Assuming we are standing still with a spoof currency based at 100 index, GBP goes down 5%, AUD goes up 5%, JPY ges up 10%, NZD goes down 2%, EUR stays put, USD goes down 10%.

sjn2003

What will be will be as far as I am concerned!

As money trading is not my business I am not going to worry about x rates when the day comes to translate my £££'s. You can guarantee any news you read has already been factored into the price by more informed dealers before you even think about it. An d anyway if they were always right with direction of rates they would have retired happy a long time ago !!!

chippy

I'm with sjn on this one....que sera sera and all that.

Trying to second guess forex is a mind-f**k. :scared:

tennisoz

G'day, not a pommie chum but interested! I think the feeling among the financial community is that in the longer term the £ will get weaker against the A$ ie move towards £1=$2.20 rather than the current $2.40 or thereabouts.

If interest rates in the UK do go up soon this normally strengthens a currency because there is more return on investments held in £'s and so others change their currency into £'s forcing the 'price' (exchange rate) up. No-one can really predict exchange rates (otherwise they would be richer than Bill Gates!) but I suppose in the short term, if UK interest rates rise, the £ might move towards $2.50 but eventually will continue its general fall against the $.

Of course you can't look at it in isolation. I'm not saying they are going to but if the RBA put up interest rates also this would take some of the heat out of the £.

TennisOz

P.S. I think you will find most politicians are w*****s. I'm have no particular political preference here but look at the Tories when they have a slight chance of defeating Labour!!


TennisOz

louH

For what its worth my opinion is if we are talking about it the fx markets have probably already reacted to it!

bondipom

Not a bad idea when you look what happened to Nick Leeson betting on the Japanese Yen. Oooopps there goes another few hundred million.

etlniwd

There are nine members of the MPC. Last time around four of them voted for a rise. That means it's very likely that they will go for it this time. However, most of that is already factored into the markets.

If I had to make a prediction I would expect a 0.25% rise in interest rates which will be accompanied by a slight temporary strengthening of the pound. I still expect the AUD/£ rate to level out at 2.2 later this year though.

I'm so glad I exchanged at 2.87 - we'll be very lucky to ever see that again I think.

booboo1

I feel a bit like Victor Meldew in that I DONT'T BELIEVE IT

Having finally agreed to move to Oz end Jan this year, the exchange rate has just continued to drop, and drop, and drop.!!!

We will be down about £25,000 since Feb, house prices in Melbourne keep rocketing up...I DONT'T BELIEVE IT

Sorry everyone, it must be because of my visa application!!!!

Seriously, can anyone give simple explanations for the previous historical large changes in the £ to AU$. It would appear to be at a low not seen for over 4 years; if it drops slightly more it won't have been this low for the last 6 years.......:lecture:

Feeling very down about the whole thing....is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Nick (Booboo's Hubby)