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Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Old Oct 30th 2014, 10:39 am
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Default Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Hi Guys,

With a move to Australia imminent and most our income coming from the UK I am keen to hear or your opinions on the relative state of the economies in Australia and the UK.

Check this out - GBP_AUD_-_5_year - CubicleFree's library

The five year chart shows two interesting but opposing long term trends.

Is the Aussie dollar set to continue to devalue against the pound because of Chinese weakness?

OR

Is the Euro set to collapse bringing the British economy and the Pound with it?

Look forward to your thoughts!
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Old Oct 30th 2014, 11:57 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by Quinna
Hi Guys,

With a move to Australia imminent and most our income coming from the UK I am keen to hear or your opinions on the relative state of the economies in Australia and the UK.

Check this out - GBP_AUD_-_5_year - CubicleFree's library

The five year chart shows two interesting but opposing long term trends.

Is the Aussie dollar set to continue to devalue against the pound because of Chinese weakness?

OR

Is the Euro set to collapse bringing the British economy and the Pound with it?

Look forward to your thoughts!
With the UKs ecconomy being the strongest in the EU, and having not adopted the Euro, then a collapse of the Euro, which has been going that way foir some time, is much less likely to affect the Pound.
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Old Oct 30th 2014, 1:23 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by mikelincs
With the UKs ecconomy being the strongest in the EU, and having not adopted the Euro, then a collapse of the Euro, which has been going that way foir some time, is much less likely to affect the Pound.
Good point - thank goodness the UK decided to stay separate
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Old Oct 30th 2014, 4:23 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by mikelincs
With the UKs ecconomy being the strongest in the EU, and having not adopted the Euro, then a collapse of the Euro, which has been going that way foir some time, is much less likely to affect the Pound.
I think there's a 'when did you last beat your wife?' in here. The collapse of the Euro? It's been doing well despite expectations to the contrary (explained in article below); recent 'stress tests' by the ECB on banks have been better than expected but a little weakening of the Euro is expected but not collapse.

Reasons for strength of the Euro | Economics Help

The AUD has for much of 2014 been hovering around $1.80 to GBP, moved into mid/high $1.70's just over a month ago and then a lot of things happened to weaken the AUD - the 'talking down' of the exchange rate by the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, some economic data in Australia and UK, signs of slowdown in China, strengthening of the greenback so Australia used less as a reserve currency and people move back to Uncle Sam etc. The rate did move to high $1.80's but little by little it is going back to low $1.80's. I suspect a rate of $1.90 could be on the cards but there are that many variables at play which affect exchange rates who knows what will happen! If you can get your dealer to lock in a rate in the $1.80's I'd go for it if you are moving $'s into £'s; a waiting game if you can might be best if moving £'s into $'s.

I'm not a financial advisor, exchange rates can up or down, don't base any decisions on my advice and so on.

Another couple of articles for reference:

Aus Dollar Forecast: Reasons Why the GBP and USD are Predicted to Advance Against the AUD

Pound to Dollar Forecast Lower, Euro Weakness Ahead Despite Recent Signs of Strength
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 2:53 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

For a long time now natural anti gravity seems to want to push the Oz dollar up against the pound and the USD. Every time it gets a pummelling it then slowly rises. Kind of been hanging around its current mark for a while now.
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 7:15 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

British Pound to the Australian Dollar - Exchange Rates 2004 to 2014

Looking at a TEN year spread...

In October 2004 the Value of the British Pound ranged between 2.445458 and 2.482235 Australian Dollars with an average of 2.465794.
In October 2014 the Value of the British Pound ranged between 1.812251 and 1.862760 Australian Dollars with an average of 1.831185.

In October 2008 the Value of the British Pound went up as far as 2.587217 Australian Dollars, with a month average of 2.458957
In March 2013 the Value of the British Pound went down as far as 1.44163 Australian Dollars, with a month average of 1.457849

10 year graph at: FX Rates GBP-AUD 2004-2014 » Britzinoz
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 8:29 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Unfortunately you can only exchange at the prevailing rate rather than the 10 year average although it's nice to see the trend of rates. Best guesses would be in the $1.80's for a while - I see over the last 2 weeks it has been gradually slipping back (£) from $1.86's to $1.81's today - the markets seem to have factored in an around $1.80 expectation in 2014 but I don't think that will hold in the medium term - mid/high $1.80's.
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 9:55 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

I wouldn't have a clue if the GBP is on the wax, the wane or holding steady against AUD. We have a fairly large transfer to make in the next week, so I'll hop onto our Oz forex account and test the rate for a few days. I've always been happy with their rates - after being very naïve for the first transfer and doing it via my bank. Ouch.
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 10:05 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by Quinna
Good point - thank goodness the UK decided to stay separate
Keeping a small, dinky currency that can get kicked around as speculators please is the worst idea. And these aren't just small time investors compared to the power of a central bank, but financial crooks who can send a currency like the Pound spiralling if they like.

Joining the Euro puts you into a powerful currency that's not as easy to target. It's a safety net, a sort of financial umbrella if you like, and also facilitates trade. Plus most of the UK's exports/trade are with the EU.

The only entities that benefit from the UK staying with the Pound (and who have sponsored major advertising campaigns to keep things this way) are... banks. They are the ones pillaging the UK every second of the day, on every transaction involving anyone else. They absolutely detest the Euro and how they've been robbed of a Europe with as many currencies as there are countries, which was a goldmine for them.

Imagine a United States with 50 different currencies, and banks getting a big, fat cut on every single transaction between any states. Eldorado.

Last edited by astera; Oct 31st 2014 at 10:37 am.
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 3:20 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by spouse of scouse
I wouldn't have a clue if the GBP is on the wax, the wane or holding steady against AUD. We have a fairly large transfer to make in the next week, so I'll hop onto our Oz forex account and test the rate for a few days. I've always been happy with their rates - after being very naïve for the first transfer and doing it via my bank. Ouch.
Yes the banks do tend to take you to the cleaners! I actually just did a little review of CanadianForex who are owned by OzForex in an attempt to help others save money. Nothing like the pain of getting wacked by a bank to inspire you to take action.

Out of interest, do you use charts to help decide when to move your money? I have found it can be really helpful.

Originally Posted by astera
Keeping a small, dinky currency that can get kicked around as speculators please is the worst idea. And these aren't just small time investors compared to the power of a central bank, but financial crooks who can send a currency like the Pound spiralling if they like.

Joining the Euro puts you into a powerful currency that's not as easy to target. It's a safety net, a sort of financial umbrella if you like, and also facilitates trade. Plus most of the UK's exports/trade are with the EU.

The only entities that benefit from the UK staying with the Pound (and who have sponsored major advertising campaigns to keep things this way) are... banks. They are the ones pillaging the UK every second of the day, on every transaction involving anyone else. They absolutely detest the Euro and how they've been robbed of a Europe with as many currencies as there are countries, which was a goldmine for them.

Imagine a United States with 50 different currencies, and banks getting a big, fat cut on every single transaction between any states. Eldorado.
Really great points Astera - Eldorado indeed!

I can only imagine how easily the Aussie dollar can be gamed if the Pound can.
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 3:36 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by Quinna
Yes the banks do tend to take you to the cleaners! I actually just did a little review of CanadianForex who are owned by OzForex in an attempt to help others save money. Nothing like the pain of getting wacked by a bank to inspire you to take action.

Out of interest, do you use charts to help decide when to move your money? I have found it can be really helpful.
.
Hi Quinna

I don't really delve into the best time to transfer money to the UK, primarily because the reason for our transfers currently is making scheduled payments to the developer of an off-plan flat we're buying. So apart from having a week or two to play around with, we don't have any discretion as to when we make the payments.

I'll likely become far more pro-active when we move to the UK though, as my husband and I will both have account based pensions from our Oz super funds, as well as the rental income from an investment property, that we'll need to move over. We're not going to finalise our financial plan until we get professional help on the Oz and UK tax implications of deriving the bulk of our income in one country, while living in another.

To be honest, I get a headache just thinking about it all
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Old Oct 31st 2014, 6:35 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
Keeping a small, dinky currency that can get kicked around as speculators please is the worst idea. And these aren't just small time investors compared to the power of a central bank, but financial crooks who can send a currency like the Pound spiralling if they like.

Joining the Euro puts you into a powerful currency that's not as easy to target. It's a safety net, a sort of financial umbrella if you like, and also facilitates trade. Plus most of the UK's exports/trade are with the EU.

The only entities that benefit from the UK staying with the Pound (and who have sponsored major advertising campaigns to keep things this way) are... banks. They are the ones pillaging the UK every second of the day, on every transaction involving anyone else. They absolutely detest the Euro and how they've been robbed of a Europe with as many currencies as there are countries, which was a goldmine for them.

Imagine a United States with 50 different currencies, and banks getting a big, fat cut on every single transaction between any states. Eldorado.
What a load of nonsense, the Euro has been around for 15 years now and the pound is doing no better or worse than it ever has. I have not heard the argument about translating currency for some time now, but it was generally something said by people who did not have a clue.

Banks do not make a big proportion of income on foreign currency exchange fees.

And you are aware that the USA is one country with one government aren't you? Whereas Europe is not.
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Old Nov 1st 2014, 10:31 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

The Pound has been weak and has probably wrecked quite a few retirement plans for people who had previously planned on packing up their bags and heading somewhat closer to the Equator. A couple of years ago it was on the verge of levelling with the Euro even which would have caused quite a stir.

The argument that having a small, separate currency in Europe is better because you have full control over it rather than letting the ECB run things is absolute rubbish. There is no such choice. The choice is whether you want global financiers/speculators to exert control over your currency or whether you want to be part of a much bigger and safer currency that is an entirely different ball game for speculators to take on. Rewind back to 1992 to see how much control we had over the Pound when just a SINGLE speculator (albeit a big one) was able to beat the living daylight out of it, send it spiralling out of the ERM... and hit the UK Treasury for billions.

Banks are the ones losing out on a common currency, and yes - the amounts made on cross-border transactions not just on exchange rates (which are exorbitant and generate significant revenue) but on transaction costs as well. Add to that other products that companies have to sign up for due to currency risks such as forward transactions, etc. to continually mitigate risks from currency fluctuations and you can see where this is heading...

Put things this way. Every time a UK business does business with another entity from Europe, banks are having a party. When two business from different countries transact, yet both are part of the Euro-zone, banks make absolute peanuts and everything is kept simple and easy, with no currency risks.

Overall: consumers and businesses benefit from a single currency. Banks lose out. I know which side I'm on.
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Old Nov 2nd 2014, 7:26 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Interesting article:

Rush to swap Aussie dollars

"The Australian dollar versus pound exchange rate will probably also hold fairly steady until the end of the year, he says. The Australian dollar will probably fall against the pound around the middle of next year, but not to the same extent as the fall against the US dollar, Dr Oliver says."

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Old Nov 3rd 2014, 3:32 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

You're having a laugh.

have you not been watching the news over the last few years?

The European experiment goes to show that single, shared currencies only work if there is political union such as the USA. A one interest rate fits all fails and is very bad for business and the consumer if there is no political union. An interest rate that will be suitable for Germany will not work in Greece because its economy is different. Think of it as two cars one diesel one unleaded. If you put diesel in the unleaded it doesn't run too well, it might even stop.

Look at the consumer and business hardship created in the Club Med states of Europe.

I cannot believe that people still advocate that the Euro is a good thing. It's mad and always has been.



Originally Posted by astera
The Pound has been weak and has probably wrecked quite a few retirement plans for people who had previously planned on packing up their bags and heading somewhat closer to the Equator. A couple of years ago it was on the verge of levelling with the Euro even which would have caused quite a stir.

The argument that having a small, separate currency in Europe is better because you have full control over it rather than letting the ECB run things is absolute rubbish. There is no such choice. The choice is whether you want global financiers/speculators to exert control over your currency or whether you want to be part of a much bigger and safer currency that is an entirely different ball game for speculators to take on. Rewind back to 1992 to see how much control we had over the Pound when just a SINGLE speculator (albeit a big one) was able to beat the living daylight out of it, send it spiralling out of the ERM... and hit the UK Treasury for billions.

Banks are the ones losing out on a common currency, and yes - the amounts made on cross-border transactions not just on exchange rates (which are exorbitant and generate significant revenue) but on transaction costs as well. Add to that other products that companies have to sign up for due to currency risks such as forward transactions, etc. to continually mitigate risks from currency fluctuations and you can see where this is heading...

Put things this way. Every time a UK business does business with another entity from Europe, banks are having a party. When two business from different countries transact, yet both are part of the Euro-zone, banks make absolute peanuts and everything is kept simple and easy, with no currency risks.

Overall: consumers and businesses benefit from a single currency. Banks lose out. I know which side I'm on.
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