Don

I have seen the future. The future is China. Just about every manufactured good you see in NZ has been made in China. Not cars (yet) etc - but it'll come too.

I had the same premonition/ EWS - about telecommunications - when I was in Aus back in 99 and saw the competition in the telcoms mkt. Wish I'd stayed out of their shares (sigh!).

Anyone with a funds investment - I reckon a great one-way long term bet is China Opportunities - could be worth considering switching into. Protectionism aside.

And with a 30% appreciation of the Chinese Yuan/ Renminbi due any time soon but more likely over the next couple of years, there could be a good bonus in making the switch soon.

bondipom

China will be the same roller coaster that SE Asia is. One point to note is there are over 200 million unemployed and a very worried government.

Megalania

Apply bitter aloes to your finger nails and hang on tight but the ride might be worth it if you have the time for detailed investment investigation.CHINA INVESTMENT REPORT

jarv

There are more manufactured / engineered goods produced in China than ever, most engineering firms in the UK will vouch for that ,especially the ones with no work !!!!!

Dave

shanghaiman

yes. i agree there are tremendous improvements in china in terms of its economics and people's living standards, particularly in its coastal provinces.

but one problem, as somebody mentioned above, is that the government is getting better and more efficient, yet it is still quite noted for its corruption and redtapes.

and the worst shadow over china's current economic advance is the Taiwan issue. so many chinese in mainland deeply worry abt this. if taiwan continues its independence drives, a war will be inevitable in near future.
if such a war breaks out, it would do a lot of harm to china as a nation as well as a race. let alone economic development.


that is one of the reasons some chinese decide to immigrate.

bondipom

How much of the threat of war do you think is posturing by the Chinese government? Do you think the posturing is making the Taiwanese more adamant to be independant?

I believe the communist party is more worried by threats to its own power.

War will be a disaster to China, the region and the world economy. I also believe the West is more keen to grab as much Chinese market share as posssible than to stop China invading Taiwan.

Another interesting observation is the changes in HKs political scene. Will China let the democracy advocates gain more power?

shanghaiman

How much of the threat of war do you think is posturing by the Chinese government?

-- if taiwan declares independence a war is unavoidable. if u learn a little bit moer abt taiwan's history u will know the chinese government is not merely bluffing since if not they will lose support from its people. no one likes a government that lets its territory get lost.
most chinese believe taiwan is one part of china as it has always been.

Do you think the posturing is making the Taiwanese more adamant to be independant?
-- i do not know. i have personally never been to taiwan. in china those that support taiwan independence often cite the example of american independence from britain; those that oppose it take the example of american civil war and lincon's famous words of not letting the country/nation apart.


I believe the communist party is more worried by threats to its own power.
-- one word or another. the idea is true.


War will be a disaster to China, the region and the world economy. I also believe the West is more keen to grab as much Chinese market share as posssible than to stop China invading Taiwan.
-- i believe us should do something to at least keep the status quo, and let the chinese people (taiwan included, we have the same blood, language, religions, traditions, culture) solve it later by themselves. why do we need a war for the interests of politicains at both sides?


Another interesting observation is the changes in HKs political scene. Will China let the democracy advocates gain more power?
-- i personally think the chinese government will do something to make the situation develop towards its own good. but i really doubt if they can really make it.
if the democracy advocates are really liked by the hk people i think they deserve support from every chinese no matter where; and i hope what they do is not just political shows.

Megalania

When I meet mainland Chinese in Australia, they all seem quite comfortable with doing business with Australia and Australians as do Australians with Chinese. Its almost like the two peoples are surprised to find they think similarly.

What do you think the Shanghi "man in the street" thinks of Australia?

shanghaiman

maybe sounds a little weird.

i decide to settle down in oz next year even though i do not know clearly what i can/should do in oz; even though i have not decided till today which city to live (i got pr 2 years ago); even though i clearly know i can never make the same money in oz as i do today in china.

i was in oz twice, and feel at home and realise strongly it is a country where i hope my son grows up. ( of course i have only been to germany, greek, holland where i can not understand the languages, i have neither been to us nor britian.)

perhaps i am a little bit too naive or too idealistic, i feel i am just doing what i like. many of my chinese friends feel suprised by my decision of migrating to oz because in today's china u can do a lot.

perhaps just a human instinct. life gets boring and one desires excitement and new changes and challenges. who knows.

i personally have very mixed feelings abt migrating. perhaps we asians have not the same concept of migrating due to some cultural differences from u western guys. at least u share the same language and lot of cultures with the aussies, u ought to be more at home than us.

Megalania

Hopefully, you can have the best of both China and Australia. Currently, Australia sells a lot of raw materials to China and China sells a lot of manufactured goods to Australia. If you have an interest in business, perhaps you could profit from the trade and spend some time in China and some in Australia?

However, take care, it seems the Chinese like imprisoning successful Chinese / Australian business people:
James Peng released from Chinese prison

Herman

When the ultimate goal is to make money, then why not?
However, I have performed detailed due diligence assignments on both a leading Taiwanese investment company based in Taipai and on a leading Chinese life insurer based out of Shanghai. The potential buyers were a Swiss investment bank and a life insurance company which is a household name in just about every household in Australia. In both cases the findings were incredible. These businesses are like the proverbial onion - the more layers you peel off the more you cry. Corrupt, insolvent (despite what the glossy financials would have unwitting investors believe) and managed for the good of a handful of directors/political officials. I would not invest a single penny of my money in China, and you can keep the potential upside!

dugongs

china is selling goods with the benefit of an undervalued currency just like australia did in the past few years.

the currency will have to float and the sooner the better which will lead to a slow down as export prices rise.

there is no doubt the population of china is an opportunity and the thought of a democratic china in the future is another reason to keep wealth creation and investment flowing. however the currency issue is helping to create huge distortions in the world economy and needs to be addressed.

Megalania

It has been said that it is the duty of every patriotic Chinese to rip off foreigners. Times have changed a bit; now it is not about patriotism, just capitalism.

shanghaiman

should be some deeper stories. i did not read the link though.

i myself am a garment manufacturer and exporter, many of my friends do business too. no one in prison. western media tends to focus on negative coverage of chinese issues and exaggerate a little from time to time.

u know china is too big a country. everyday i can also read many sensational news in our own newspapers too.

just like america, if chinese media always cover stories of campus shooting, President dick sucking, and nothing more. all chinese will be astonished and feel america is the most dangerous and bizarre country in the world.

i hv to say most chinese know much much more abt what is going on the west, particularly the states though, than most western people do abt china.


( i repeat i am not pro-communist in any sense!!!!! but i do feel unhappy that i seldom read postive news abt china in western media even though tremendous progresses are taking place here. it is not media objectivity.)

shanghaiman

i do agree that u must hv very trustful partner in china, then u can try to see the real picture, then decide u invest or not. u must be very cautious.

on the other hand, i hv to say china now has a lot of money-making chances if yr ideas and approaches are suitable and targetable and u hv chinese partner that are real responsible and competent. many overseas investors make big money here too. for example cococola, motolola, nokia etc.