For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to r
Jul 15th 2010, 3:47 am
#1
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For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to r
"For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to remain flat or fall."
"SENTIMENT among Australian property investors is turning increasingly bearish, according to the latest Investor Pulse poll of investors conducted by Colmar Brunton and BusinessDay.
For the first time this year, the number of investors expecting house prices to remain flat or fall outweighs those who see prices rising. The fundamental reason for the shift in sentiment is a dawning belief that Australian housing is in a ''bubble'' that at some point will burst and return to historic levels of affordability.
When asked about recent comments by famed US fund manager and property bubble expert Jeremy Grantham - who described Australian and British property as the only two of 34 bubbles he had studied that had not yet burst - 43 per cent of investors agreed that reversion to the mean would involve considerable pain. Only 25 per cent of investors disagreed with the bubble diagnosis and 32 per cent were undecided."
For the first time this year, the number of investors expecting house prices to remain flat or fall outweighs those who see prices rising. The fundamental reason for the shift in sentiment is a dawning belief that Australian housing is in a ''bubble'' that at some point will burst and return to historic levels of affordability.
When asked about recent comments by famed US fund manager and property bubble expert Jeremy Grantham - who described Australian and British property as the only two of 34 bubbles he had studied that had not yet burst - 43 per cent of investors agreed that reversion to the mean would involve considerable pain. Only 25 per cent of investors disagreed with the bubble diagnosis and 32 per cent were undecided."
"Rising interest rates were surprisingly low on the list of causes, with only 10 per cent of investors blaming monetary policy for the slowdown."
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-est...715-10bod.html
Last edited by coolshadows; Jul 15th 2010 at 3:50 am.
Jul 15th 2010, 9:08 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
Hey Coolshadows, I guess we've been in front of the curve for a while now. 
Smart money has exited, smarter investors are trying to get out now and the numpties will be scrambling for the exits when it's too late.
The UK press is choc full of news items relating to downward pressure and a heavily falling market which can only mean less migrants with less cash to Aus.
I'm sure the FHOG and allowing foreigners to buy Aus property was a way to ensure that everyone who was connected to the Govt could sell their investment properties at top dollar in a market that was obviously gonna fall.
Even Glenn Stevens (RBA chief) has warned the public that buying property is no way to quick riches or something to that affect. He's warned the public.
Smart money has exited, smarter investors are trying to get out now and the numpties will be scrambling for the exits when it's too late.
The UK press is choc full of news items relating to downward pressure and a heavily falling market which can only mean less migrants with less cash to Aus.
I'm sure the FHOG and allowing foreigners to buy Aus property was a way to ensure that everyone who was connected to the Govt could sell their investment properties at top dollar in a market that was obviously gonna fall.
Even Glenn Stevens (RBA chief) has warned the public that buying property is no way to quick riches or something to that affect. He's warned the public.
Jul 15th 2010, 9:27 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
That article shows:
1% expect a 10% drop (that's the group you are in, yes? )
11% expect a 5% drop
39% expect a 5% rise
5% expect a 10% rise
Jul 15th 2010, 9:38 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
Interesting figures... 12% expect a drop and 44% expect them to keep rising.
That article shows:
1% expect a 10% drop (that's the group you are in, yes? )
11% expect a 5% drop
39% expect a 5% rise
5% expect a 10% rise
http://images.theage.com.au/2010/07/...se25-420x0.jpg
That article shows:
1% expect a 10% drop (that's the group you are in, yes? )
11% expect a 5% drop
39% expect a 5% rise
5% expect a 10% rise
http://images.theage.com.au/2010/07/...se25-420x0.jpg
Who are probably already holding property and therefore will be biased to price rises and yet they are NOT!!
Jul 15th 2010, 9:51 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
And 61 per cent of investors agreed that interest rates were at the right level or still too low.
Jul 15th 2010, 10:10 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
I'm seeing more 'reduced' tags in the local paper property pages. Is this a new sales ploy, or genuine reductions I wonder...
Jul 15th 2010, 10:24 pm
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
I'm seeing more 'reduced' tags in the local paper property pages. Is this a new sales ploy, or genuine reductions I wonder...
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/3206/salesai.jpg
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/3206/salesai.jpg
Jul 15th 2010, 11:44 pm
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
Another day, another thread featuring the usual suspects.
ABCdiamond
I love the way you gatecrash these little parties and let the readers see what the article is actually saying, not what pomtastic, freebo and coolshadows want the readers to see...
Based on the colmar brunton graph:
5% = don't know
12% = think it will fall
38% = think it will stay flat
44% = think it will rise
The article is titled:
For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to remain flat or fall.
So the number of people who think it will stay flat or fall (12% + 38%) = 50%, outweighs the number that think it will rise....44%.
Of course, you could flip it around and say that the number of people who think the market will rise or stay flat (82%), far outweighs the number of people who think it will fall (12%). But I'm not sure that Pomtastic and others would get too excited about an article based on those stats.....
ABCdiamond
I love the way you gatecrash these little parties and let the readers see what the article is actually saying, not what pomtastic, freebo and coolshadows want the readers to see...Based on the colmar brunton graph:
5% = don't know
12% = think it will fall
38% = think it will stay flat
44% = think it will rise
The article is titled:
For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices to remain flat or fall.
So the number of people who think it will stay flat or fall (12% + 38%) = 50%, outweighs the number that think it will rise....44%.
Of course, you could flip it around and say that the number of people who think the market will rise or stay flat (82%), far outweighs the number of people who think it will fall (12%). But I'm not sure that Pomtastic and others would get too excited about an article based on those stats.....
Last edited by asprilla; Jul 15th 2010 at 11:47 pm.
Jul 15th 2010, 11:46 pm
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
ps - better quickly add in a disclaimer... I'm part of the 12% that reckon prices will drop this year. I'm just not part of the "bubble gang".
Jul 15th 2010, 11:53 pm
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
The key point of this article was the change in direction. No longer are they simply discussing if it'll be 10% or 20% increases (and the chart is from a property investment research company).
Last edited by coolshadows; Jul 15th 2010 at 11:56 pm.
Jul 16th 2010, 12:09 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
BTW I think the tree of us + you & ABCD are the readers, Mr Diamond however offers a useful perspective.
Last edited by freebo; Jul 16th 2010 at 12:14 am.
Jul 16th 2010, 12:12 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
everyone else just scrolls on past to the next thread, heh heh.
Jul 16th 2010, 2:33 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
Jul 16th 2010, 2:53 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
You lot should ask for your own forum on here.... The "Boring Bastards Obsessed with Property" board. B-BOP for short.
Jul 16th 2010, 3:15 am
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Re: For the first time this year, most investors surveyed are expecting house prices
