andybaker

I'm writing to say that my application is being processed at the moment. My wife and child (and baby number two due in June) are off to Perth hopefully end of this year. I am a bit concerned about the exchange rate from pounds sterling to aus dollar. It's been getting worse for us (my wife and I) to change money before we go.

Does anyone know when the best time is to change money (I have been in contact with Commonwealth bank too)? Will the exchange rate get better? Are there any good rate forecasting sites on the net? Are the rates low because of the string aus dollar or because of the impending war in Iraq or the stock markets?

Thanks for any help.

andybaker

sorry i meant 'strong' aus dollar

Ari

Well, our situation may be different, but here are my 2c:
I changed my Israeli Shekels to AU$, 2 months before getting the visa - on the same day I got the money from the guys who bought our house. My banker advised me not to wait for a better rate, since from her experience all people who needed foreign currency and made (wishful thinking) forecasts were wrong at the end of the day. I'm very happy since it was then .57 US$ for AU$, and now it's .62 US$ for AU$. I know that about five years ago it was around .80US$ for AU$, so still the AU$ is quite low these days, comparing to other currencies. Also, the Economist's "BigMac Index" implies it's still 34% undervalued, so it can reach .78 US$. Of course it can go back to .49US$ (and I really hope it will, since I still didn't sell my car yet...) So - nobody knows where it's heading, no advisor and no site, since whoever have known that could make a fortune from his forecasts
My only amateurish advise (I'm NOT an economist) - If you need the money in AU$ and have it fluid - eventually you have to transfer it, so do it when you can. Moreover - I don't know how much you get in UK on your savings, but 4.4% p.a. in AU sounds good enough for me.
The only annoying thing is you don't have any control on tomorrow's rate - so in serious sums it's only luck, not knowledge that may cost/bring you hundreds and even thousands of Dollars/GBPounds.

Good luck!

doub

I think we had it pretty good for the best part of last year! The pound was overvalued at 2.8 ish and unfortunately it may be a little more realistic where it is now. The Oz $ is commodities based, therefore in times of trouble, its a safe place to be for your money. Golds on the up and the interest rate is higher. I think its a combination of all of these factors that has seen the £ on the skids since Jan 1st.
Having said all that, its all relative. a few years ago we would all have been very pleased with 2.5. I'm no expert, not even a good gambler so I may not bank on the situation improving in the short term and change my money before the situation gets any worse.

Mark

Emme

Once this possible war with Iraq is over then we should see a rise in the dollar.....but not to the extremities seen last year. I often walk around London and ask myself whether the apparent strength of the £ is over rated considering this country shows no sign of "wealth" to warrant the strength of our currency.

People are scared to invest money because of lack of confidence in the markets obviously due to the political goings on at present so the £ has fallen and rightly so. If the Iraqi situation has a swift ending then we may see some change but surely not back to 2.8 seen last year....You have to ask yourself whether Gordon Brown got his figures wrong???.....

I have just received my visa, sold my flat, car and am wanting to send money to Aus.....certainly not at $2.45 to the £. Having spoken to lots of people, there is no answer to your questions. Its all depend on oil prices as well.....once the price of a barrel drops then who knows....I've been advised to hold on until the middle east conflicts have resolved.

Wrong timing for me I guess.......can anyone add to this!

Emmé

Black Sheep

Hello Andy,

We're in the same boat as you, though with NZ$. We have such meager savings as it is, certainly compared to all of you in UK with your boom-market houses to cash in on, that it's particularly painful for us to watch the NZ$ go up up up. My husband's salary in NZ will be about 30-35% lower than what he's been making here (and we've barely survived as it is) and about 50% lower than what he would expect to make in a similar position in USA. So this exchange rate business is really scary, we feel we've 'lost' NZ$30,000+ in the past 3 months, and this is money we had really counted on to make life there liveable.....

So, as for figuring out what the Oz$ is going to do: for NZ, I check the online NZ Herald newspaper regularly, their 'business' section has a 'currency' sub-section which often gives opinions from banks etc. about what's going to happen with NZ$. A few days ago, for instance, it was predicted that the NZ$ would continue to climb up as high as US$.60, and then presumably start falling again - the strong NZ$ is affecting the NZ export market/prices and it's starting to hurt. This is a prediction of course, not set in stone - bear in mind that only a few weeks ago, in same newspaper, one bank manager said he didn't expect NZ$ to go above US$.54 or .55 as that, he thought, is the true value of the NZ$. Well, it's sitting at about US$56.5 right now.... Anyway, this was a long and roundabout way of suggesting to you that you check the business/financial sections of online Aus newspapers for 'forecasts'.

Good luck!
TA

captaincook

it looks to me at the moment interest rates are critical to the aussie / kiwi dollar

when the uk cut rates unexpectedly that triggered the fall in the pound. If Uk cut rates again then 2.45 could look like a good rate.

with rates so low everywhere in the western world money is looking for higher returns and that was the kiwi but at these levels it is dragging the aussie with it.

captaincook

sorry forgot to say

looking at kiwi and aussie central banks - they do not look likely to cut rates soon at the present time although kiwi is on an easing bias. This could all change of course although if a war is short and sharp the us will bounce and that is also supportive of oz and kiwi.

dotty

I am surprised that one logical point has been overlooked.

If you were planning to spend the rest of your life in OZ wouldn,t what that currencys worth also be relevant.? After all do you fancy spending your days working for a currency worth (as it was 33p).

Swings and roundabouts and all that.

Thylacoleo

Better re-state that Dotty, it is not clear and possibly not logical.

Terry

I think what she meant to say was. (from one her earlier post's)

I know its only gone up 3 cents, but for the Aussie dollar thats a miracle and frankly I'm hoping it climbs higher. Is it true house prices are slowing in the UK, all I read seems to suggest they are. My escape from the bottom of the world is looking positive. Any opinions on what might happen dollar/property wise? UK here we come.

Terry

Thylacoleo

The sorry truth, as I see it, is that anyone who can predict the price of tea in China with enough accuracy to make a quid out of it is not going to tell us, just make a lot of mouth noise so they can trade on the price volatility.

jambo_g

Another way that we are looking at it is, with the killing we are making on our house sale, I can live with the ozzie currency getting stronger.

I know this sounds a bit daft because in the ideal world it would be 2.9 to the £ and we would be mega quids in, but lets face it, if we get out now when the UK housing market is at an all time high then yeehaaa, a year later may be too late with housing prices forcast to perhaps drop???

Graham

sue5665

Hi,
We leave for OZ on 18th March, so we had no choice but to change our money, we have changed half and got $2.57 but it will be earning us 4% in aussie bank account. The rest is staying in a uk bank account earning 2% until the rate picks up!
We could of got $2.9 if we ordered in advance with the commonwealth bank but being cautious, we waited for the house to sell e.t.c (if only !!).

Sue

captaincook

amp have a direct internet savings account paying 4.8% gross

its one of the best rates available anywhere at the moment - they are rated AA and are a blue chip top 10 oz company although like all top blue chip oz companies they have lost a lot of money expanding overseas.