scoobydooathome

It seems the best time of the year to buy currency would be from July - August - September time looking at statistics in history, these months last year were peaking at $2.97 a £,

Does anyone know otherwise, all input welcome...

Thanks,

Scoobydoo.

captaincook

got to say that from living in oz for a while the currency here is linked to the us economic recovery as that increases commodity prices which in turn increase value of ozzie output - ozzie economy is dominated by agriculture and mining.

early last year the us economy was expected to pick up low interest rates etc etc and the markets started pricing in recovery which resulted in a strengthening commodities and the ozzie went up and peaked about 2.65 to pound i seem to recall around April time. then the us went pear shaped again and the ozzie collapsed back to 2.90 ish.

its a gamble but if you think usa is on road to recovery buy the ozzie now if you think usa is going down the gurgler then you can afford to wait

having said that uk looks like it is not going to well right now unemployment could rise, increased taxes in april, cost of war etc cannot help but think sterling could dip just on the back of all the useless labour policies coming to fruitition.

Stan J

Just think of poor bastards like myself who got precious little more than $2.05 for their pound notes in the early nineties and have to buy back quids at almost three dollars.

The last posters point about Australia's well being being linked to commodies is right enough, but rather than commodities rising and falling with the US economy, the upward movement of commodities might be the result of a flight of capital out of shares and the overheated real estate market into that sector? Oil and Gold shares are rising with the sense of global uncertainty

A week's a long time in politics.

Of course an option perhaps open to you is to change half now and half in the future, then you'll enjoy an average between now and then.

scoobydooathome

Hello Stan and Captain Cook,

The Korea thing in the news is driving the US dollar down, so I guess that will knock the AUD too..........

Any thoughts,

Thanks.

captaincook

just my view

ozzie in times of trouble is a safe haven so may actually benefit from war etc in the short term - one of the perks of living at the ends of the earth and having a safe no frills low growth economy.

stand by my earlier point in that for the ozzie to rise you need the usa recovering which provides an expectation that commodity prices will rise.

if the usa is not as right now then ozzie sits still despite high gold oil prices. gold is a safe haven anti inflation hedge but oil is a drag on world growth so negative ozzie.

cant help thinking that ozzie is not going anywhere for at least the next quarter and maybe longer if iraq does'nt get sorted out.

bigglesnm

Me thinks the us $ is on its way down long term, NZ$ seems Steady?
All seems a long way from WHITBY?