brummie bird

OK a question to all the clever economists who frequent the forum. It looks like the exchange rate is improving a touch over the last few days, what factors are affecting this?? speculation of a rate rise on thursday, or anything else i should know about. We will very shortly need to exchange £40000 to pay for some land in Perth, small fluctuations obviously make big diff.

Any advise would be welcome.

Angie

(whos original caluculations to move were based on 2.9:scared: )

booboo1

Lets hope it keeps on rising

booboo

Megalania

Sorry fact is that not even central bankers have much idea about forex. Rate of change $A/GBP exchange rate now low so timing not as critical even if you could time it.

OzTennis

Agree with that. I was reading about speculation of a possible UK interest rate rise in February or March because of the better than expected Christmas spending figures from many of the major retail chains. Equally though there has been speculation of further rate rises in Australia. So as Megs says rate movements in the very near future are not likely to be dramatic. Sub $2.40's or even sub $2.30's rather than a return to the $2.80's/$2.90's seems to be the most realistic rate to factor into plans for much of 2004.

OzTennis

sjn2003

My advice would be to toss a coin, pick your lucky number or favourite day and just go for it. Use the fx rate you can get on that day, spend your AS $ and move on and enjoy life.

There are many people out there following fx rates for a living and as Megs said they have little more clue than you or else they would have retired on their millions by now.

The long term trend for the time being seems to be down - on a daily basis its a gamble, so just throw the dice!

OzTennis

Yep, roll them dice! Even George Soros and Warren Buffett have had their fingers burned spectacularly at times in the fx market.

OzTennis

Stormz

just make sure you go through a decent currencies broker like the one I linked to on another thread... will save you thousands... just need an Oz bank account for it to be transferred to (HSBC online is popular by the sounds of it)

brummie bird

Using halewood the rate hit a high of 2.42 yesterday, stands at 2.4 at the mo.

Looks like around this figure is the best i can expect, I know that nobody can predict the rates, i was more interested in any impending factors that may influence it. Isnt there a chance of an english rate increase on thurs, is it possible that will effect it.

Angie.

sjn2003

That will have been factored into the rate days if not weeks ago. You will have to get your crystal ball out and look much further ahead.

brummie bird

Thanks for the advice all, i think i will be securing the rate this week.

Angie

dugongs

The point made on this site once before by another poster with regard exchange rates is expectations.

The market has an expectation and if actual figures or events differ slightly then the rate moves. I think the reason at the moment for the movement is Oz looks a little softer than expected and UK a little stronger than expected with regard GDP, housing and retail sales figures.

Also US fed changed its stance on future interest rate movements earlier than expected by the market albiet very slightly. Any future rate rises for the US are positive pound as we tend to move in loose sync with them. High growth USA also detracts from stable high yield aussie. The fact high growth USA is a little closer than expected moves the rate.

Snitzy

(whos original caluculations to move were based on 2.9:scared: )

I got 2.9

brummie bird

thanks for sharing that...................................NOT

Snitzy

The pleasure was all mine !!

flying dutchman

just read on the online edition of 'the australian', that equity markets are picking up with aussies starting to shun property investments in favour of shares. if this marks the start of a global trend, large corporate investors (who are responsible for pushing up the dollar), may move out of aussie currency and go for shares meaning the dollar may start to fall. and, with shares on the rise, commodities become less attractive (gold) which is the other reason the AUD is on a high.

and then again, none of the above may happen!...

flying duthman