DC10

The main thing driving this has been the realisation that interest rates in the Northern Hemisphere aren't going up (from virtually 0%) anytime soon.

DC10

Sterling didn't exactly cover itself in glory during 2008: $2.00 to $1.40 about as quick as you can say "R-B-S"

Amazulu

Speak for yourself

I was holding plenty of AUD then as now and it had no effect on me at all. Our economy continued to grow and, if I remember correctly, we had 1 quarter of negative growth - and it was 60c not 50c

These things mean different things to different people. Personally, i would be dancing in the street if we hit USD0.50 or AUD3/GBP. It would mean I could move my GBP over at a large gain. Happy days if it happens

astera

I'm an "all eggs in one basket type of person" and I converted everything at around $2.08 then. It shot up to something like $2.35 or higher shortly afterwards which had me thinking I messed up, but right afterwards the plunge begun and it dropped into the 1.40s range.

Speaking of Sterling, compared to the USD it is in exactly the same place as when it tanked at that time.

Stock market crashes, even the biggest ones in history, would have no effect on you if you just wait some years. It's all about a missed opportunity though, because if you would have sold for instance you could have bought back your original stake at a huge discount.

I too would be happy if the AUD tanked. I only hold USD so wouldn't mind Sterling going that same route either. At least temporarily...

Actually thinking what to do next and which currency to move to. The CAD seems very low at present but can the resource sector get back to its extortionate ways of ridiculous profitability? Or maybe wait for the GBP to get in trouble with all that referendum nonsense?

DC10

I wonder if one could do worse than shorting the AUD. Any sustained house price falls thrown in with a bit of rising unemployment and I think it'd drop another 20% in no time. Given the halving in economic growth it's surprising neither of those things has really happened

jad n rich

51 p this morning, if anyone transfering money/holiday its a lot better than a few months ago.

Beoz

Oil and Iron Ore price is surging. Canadian also up. $A has a 6% rise in 6 weeks.

Keep going you fragile little thing . Next week in an expensive one in the US for me. Need everything I can get

GarryP

Australian house prices live in an unreality field - there isn't the same expectation of crash that there is in the UK. Compare


and


They've never really seen a fall, just a flat lining. Whereas in the UK we've seen 35-30% falls regularly.

At the same time, if the AUD falls, the chinese investor gets more for their money, and thus considers it cheap.

The real SHTF moment will come when China finally catches up with the corruption, etc. and they collapse, bringing on GFC II. Not only do the exports dry up even further, so does the chinese money (more currency controls, worse exchange rate) and the AUD gets hit as a surrogate to the yuan.

My guess is that when it really starts falling, it will get some momentum, losing potentially 50% as people adjust to the idea that house prices can really fall.

Beoz

Well the banks are preparing for a big crash. They've already put investor rates up, and St George and Westpac are about to do it again independently of what the RBA do. Not sure if its for everyone. Could be. The others will follow.

bcworld

GBP is suddenly back up over $2 today...$2.02...basically gained 20c in the last month, that it lost in the previous 2 months.

Beoz

Great currency to bet on. Lots of yield if you get it right

Swerv-o

I really wish I knew more about it - there's precious little else to put money into these days...


S

Amazulu

I agree but I think you need balls of steel to speculate on forex!

Amazulu

My trigger point of 2.40 is starting to look back on track

Swerv-o

I'll buy a dummies guide and see how it looks

It is probably the riskiest investment - probably only one step away from gambling on horses.


S