EXCHANGE RATE
Nov 14th 2007, 10:26 am
#46
Banned
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 375
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
Spead reading/glancing through the latest BoE inflation report, it does seem that there may be one or two cuts in the UK base rate in the next six months. The UK economy seems to be slowing, housing market a little slow, so to help lift both real estate and the general economy, dropping the base rate seems to be the medicine?
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
Nov 14th 2007, 10:58 am
#47
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: Sunshine Coast, Queensland
Posts: 316
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
Spead reading/glancing through the latest BoE inflation report, it does seem that there may be one or two cuts in the UK base rate in the next six months. The UK economy seems to be slowing, housing market a little slow, so to help lift both real estate and the general economy, dropping the base rate seems to be the medicine?
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
Nov 14th 2007, 11:39 am
#48
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
Spead reading/glancing through the latest BoE inflation report, it does seem that there may be one or two cuts in the UK base rate in the next six months. The UK economy seems to be slowing, housing market a little slow, so to help lift both real estate and the general economy, dropping the base rate seems to be the medicine?
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
They think we need to take on more debt, we as a nation are not enslaved enough yet, so get spending?
This will have a dramatic effect on sterling, my guess is that the goverment is following our Amercan cousins by way of a currency devaluation to help exports. If this is the case, we could see two OZ dollars to the pound in the coming months, year (2008).
If the OZ base rate keeps rising, and the UK base rate does fall, our currency will not look very attractive to the currency investor?
This is only a guess, i know nothing about economics or investments, just my observation.
Nov 14th 2007, 11:54 am
#49
I am not a troll!
Joined: Jan 2007
Location: Yorkshire to Melbourne (2007) Melbourne to Sydney (2008) Here to stay!
Posts: 67
Nov 14th 2007, 12:07 pm
#50
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
surely if a December interest rate cut is now back on the agenda as is now being reported on fx websites this can only be a bad things for the exchange rate...
Last edited by JoolsB; Nov 14th 2007 at 12:08 pm. Reason: missed a word out
Nov 14th 2007, 12:18 pm
#51
Dugongidae Member
Joined: Feb 2002
Location: Wimbledon, England
Posts: 441
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
funnily enough this is a bit bullish for sterling as the market was expecting a couple of quick cuts in base rate.
Nov 14th 2007, 12:47 pm
#52
Banned
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 375
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
It could be just spin, just to get the shoppers out for xmas?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GIo&refer=home
But myself as a newly arrived migrant to Austalia, my observations again are;
1) Rising interest rates in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
2) Falling interest rates in the UK, bad news for sterling, exchange rate?
3) Rising house prices in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
4) House prices in the UK, not rising as fast as in Australia?
Ummmm?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GIo&refer=home
But myself as a newly arrived migrant to Austalia, my observations again are;
1) Rising interest rates in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
2) Falling interest rates in the UK, bad news for sterling, exchange rate?
3) Rising house prices in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
4) House prices in the UK, not rising as fast as in Australia?
Ummmm?
Nov 14th 2007, 1:01 pm
#53
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 790
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
It could be just spin, just to get the shoppers out for xmas?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GIo&refer=home
But myself as a newly arrived migrant to Austalia, my observations again are;
1) Rising interest rates in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
2) Falling interest rates in the UK, bad news for sterling, exchange rate?
3) Rising house prices in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
4) House prices in the UK, not rising as fast as in Australia?
Ummmm?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GIo&refer=home
But myself as a newly arrived migrant to Austalia, my observations again are;
1) Rising interest rates in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
2) Falling interest rates in the UK, bad news for sterling, exchange rate?
3) Rising house prices in Australia, bad news if i want to buy a house?
4) House prices in the UK, not rising as fast as in Australia?
Ummmm?
Nov 14th 2007, 1:22 pm
#54
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
Okay-in all honesty who 'suspects' / is of the opinion that the rate is unlikely to go up over next 3 months and more likely to hover or dip lower?
Without being negative-just 'realistic' I am of the latter opinion & I suspect from looking at posts most suspect the same????
If you were me and could exchange at today's rate and still be generally 'okay' financially on arrival (end Jan 08) would you do it or would you hang on for 2 months in the hope the £ goes up BUT with the danger being that if it goes down past 2.23 (the lowest its been so far) things would not really be okay...?
Am I just being greedy holding on?
Perhaps I should just exchange and be happy with 'okay'...
Without being negative-just 'realistic' I am of the latter opinion & I suspect from looking at posts most suspect the same????
If you were me and could exchange at today's rate and still be generally 'okay' financially on arrival (end Jan 08) would you do it or would you hang on for 2 months in the hope the £ goes up BUT with the danger being that if it goes down past 2.23 (the lowest its been so far) things would not really be okay...?
Am I just being greedy holding on?
Perhaps I should just exchange and be happy with 'okay'...
Nov 14th 2007, 1:24 pm
#55
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
I know it's the million dollar question but I feel like I'm going mad sitting staring at the marketwatch screens like a looney everyday. I just want it to be done and dusted
Nov 14th 2007, 1:47 pm
#56
IT Guru
Joined: Mar 2007
Location: Essex at the moment!
Posts: 327
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
" Markets can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent! "
It's a term economists’ use.
A person studies economics in the hope of gaining some insight on the predictability of all things economic, like the exchange rates for instance. But unfortunately is doesn’t work. You only get a good understanding of what happen. Not much profit in that...
" You can't put a price on a market! "
People have been predicting house price crashes in the UK for about 4 years now!!! I'm sure given more time they will eventually be proven right
And they will say with much glee' " See, I told you so..." :curse:
It's a term economists’ use.
A person studies economics in the hope of gaining some insight on the predictability of all things economic, like the exchange rates for instance. But unfortunately is doesn’t work. You only get a good understanding of what happen. Not much profit in that...
" You can't put a price on a market! "
People have been predicting house price crashes in the UK for about 4 years now!!! I'm sure given more time they will eventually be proven right
And they will say with much glee' " See, I told you so..." :curse:
Nov 14th 2007, 1:51 pm
#57
Banned
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 375
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
I know i sound like a stuck record, but i am no expert, i know nowt!
But if i were you i would hold my cash in a UK based saving account, and wait. Even after arrival drip feed what i need per month at a time from sterling into dollars. If i don't need it, leave it in sterling. Wait until it hits 2.5 to 1 again, because it will but when, well how long is a piece of string?
If you need the cash in dollars on arrival, i cannot guess, the timeline is far too short, its your decision. I always made sure i gave myself a twelve month window, if and when it hits 2.5 to 1 again, i will buy a 12 month future contract at 2.5 to 1 and put 10% down, but i can wait, some are not that flexible.
Hope that helps? Probably not?
Nov 14th 2007, 2:05 pm
#58
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
JoolsB,
I know i sound like a stuck record, but i am no expert, i know nowt!
But if i were you i would hold my cash in a UK based saving account, and wait. Even after arrival drip feed what i need per month at a time from sterling into dollars. If i don't need it, leave it in sterling. Wait until it hits 2.5 to 1 again, because it will but when, well how long is a piece of string?
If you need the cash in dollars on arrival, i cannot guess, the timeline is far too short, its your decision. I always made sure i gave myself a twelve month window, if and when it hits 2.5 to 1 again, i will buy a 12 month future contract at 2.5 to 1 and put 10% down, but i can wait, some are not that flexible.
Hope that helps? Probably not?
I know i sound like a stuck record, but i am no expert, i know nowt!
But if i were you i would hold my cash in a UK based saving account, and wait. Even after arrival drip feed what i need per month at a time from sterling into dollars. If i don't need it, leave it in sterling. Wait until it hits 2.5 to 1 again, because it will but when, well how long is a piece of string?
If you need the cash in dollars on arrival, i cannot guess, the timeline is far too short, its your decision. I always made sure i gave myself a twelve month window, if and when it hits 2.5 to 1 again, i will buy a 12 month future contract at 2.5 to 1 and put 10% down, but i can wait, some are not that flexible.
Hope that helps? Probably not?
-I guess Im just worried about the Melbourne housing market which seems to be going mad-40-60% increase in some areas last yr. Waiting 12 mths for a better rate will be pointless if the prices have gone up so much within that time it negates the extra.Off to stare into my crystal ball now
Nov 14th 2007, 2:08 pm
#59
Banned
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 375
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
Thanks -I guess Im just worried about the Melbourne housing market which seems to be going mad-40-60% increase in some areas last yr. Waiting 12 mths for a better rate will be pointless if the prices have gone up so much within that time it negates the extra.
Off to stare into my crystal ball now
-I guess Im just worried about the Melbourne housing market which seems to be going mad-40-60% increase in some areas last yr. Waiting 12 mths for a better rate will be pointless if the prices have gone up so much within that time it negates the extra.Off to stare into my crystal ball now
Nov 14th 2007, 2:32 pm
#60
South Yarra Sheila
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,078
Re: EXCHANGE RATE
It's rubbish that this is what's happening these days. The only reason I managed to get on the property ladder 10 years back was because my mother died or I would be in the same boat.