Effects of NZIS policy changes
Jan 5th 2004, 12:14 pm
#1
BE Enthusiast
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr 2003
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 425
Effects of NZIS policy changes
November net immigration immigration figures (Permanent and Long Term incl long term students) show that:
All of Asia incl india is down to 1/4 of original inflow;
China, down to 1/5
India, halved
Korea, lost more people than arrived
UK and Europe are static - polices have not yet shown gain in this region
SA and Zimbabwe have crashed - problems getting jobs?
NZIS has whacked about half the applications "in hand" on the head.
They had originally said that about 10,000 cases would be affected, but the sceptics amongst us have been proven right - about 25,000 fewer cases are in hand with the greatest drop of about 22,000 cases timed quite nicely after July changes ie lapsing.
This tells us that we were told the right percentages, just had the total numbers misrepresented to us. So they can calculate percentages but they can't count.
End result is the July policy changes have clearly set many countries back - I make no comment right or wrong.
Net inflow is now the lowest it has been for 2 years. Some would say "good thing", but abrupt changes are not good for NZ or applicants. Or the industry.
Largest single losses are in (Asian) students 15-24 years. This group are actually wanted to stay in NZ by NZIS as about 25% go on to apply for residence, speak English and have NZ quals.
Department of Labour estimates are that annual figures will be down by 1/3 on previous year. Hopefully this plunge will soon level out.
Expectation is however that, as policy is now tougher, incidence of fraud will escalate - esp in job offers, fabricated work experience and qualifications, paper spouses.
I don't advocate open slather immigration, but you do have to have attractive policies to get enough people applying to provide momentum to the market, and I think we're running too low. Problem has been that net migration has added more to demand than supply (more new consumerism rather than new participation in producing things ie working).
DOL says new migrant labour supply has not kept pace with demand as many have not found jobs, so the old polices were truly not working too well.
It's about time the Govt cranked up the marketing to employers to educate them about the migration process, and to minimise and form of prejudice in hiring staff. Without increased uptake of migrants into workforce, the forecast drop to about 13,000 migrants (net inflow) by 2005 will mean desperate circumstances for many employers.
Latest labour market stats www.dol.govt.nz show we have lowest unemployment for about 16 years, implying strong and growing labour shortages esp in areas of semi-skilled (yet policy is making it tougher to fill these jobs).
Also fuels wage growth and inflation, esp in construction. NZ house prices will continue to rise, adding more inflationary pressure. We also have falling arrivals and rising departures....and better prospects are coming from overseas.
They also say skills shortages will prevail.
As many high volume countries have shrunk yet European markets have not increased, then after an initial high burst I think we can expect a low average SMC pass mark - NZIS may need to keep the door wide open to keep inflow up to provide workers, at risk of fuelling inflation on one end and infuruating employers on the other.
Catch 22, maybe.
However, as this Govt is more pro worker than pro employer, they might want to keep inflation down (keep immigration numbers down) and let the employer suffer.
This will also stifle one of their most fervent political opponents in a year or so, in the lead up to the next election.
It's wonderful strategy, but it's the wrong choice for NZ. And it means they run the risk of galvanising the business community into providing more active resistance to Government inititiatives. Could be an interesting election....
All of Asia incl india is down to 1/4 of original inflow;
China, down to 1/5
India, halved
Korea, lost more people than arrived
UK and Europe are static - polices have not yet shown gain in this region
SA and Zimbabwe have crashed - problems getting jobs?
NZIS has whacked about half the applications "in hand" on the head.
They had originally said that about 10,000 cases would be affected, but the sceptics amongst us have been proven right - about 25,000 fewer cases are in hand with the greatest drop of about 22,000 cases timed quite nicely after July changes ie lapsing.
This tells us that we were told the right percentages, just had the total numbers misrepresented to us. So they can calculate percentages but they can't count.
End result is the July policy changes have clearly set many countries back - I make no comment right or wrong.
Net inflow is now the lowest it has been for 2 years. Some would say "good thing", but abrupt changes are not good for NZ or applicants. Or the industry.
Largest single losses are in (Asian) students 15-24 years. This group are actually wanted to stay in NZ by NZIS as about 25% go on to apply for residence, speak English and have NZ quals.
Department of Labour estimates are that annual figures will be down by 1/3 on previous year. Hopefully this plunge will soon level out.
Expectation is however that, as policy is now tougher, incidence of fraud will escalate - esp in job offers, fabricated work experience and qualifications, paper spouses.
I don't advocate open slather immigration, but you do have to have attractive policies to get enough people applying to provide momentum to the market, and I think we're running too low. Problem has been that net migration has added more to demand than supply (more new consumerism rather than new participation in producing things ie working).
DOL says new migrant labour supply has not kept pace with demand as many have not found jobs, so the old polices were truly not working too well.
It's about time the Govt cranked up the marketing to employers to educate them about the migration process, and to minimise and form of prejudice in hiring staff. Without increased uptake of migrants into workforce, the forecast drop to about 13,000 migrants (net inflow) by 2005 will mean desperate circumstances for many employers.
Latest labour market stats www.dol.govt.nz show we have lowest unemployment for about 16 years, implying strong and growing labour shortages esp in areas of semi-skilled (yet policy is making it tougher to fill these jobs).
Also fuels wage growth and inflation, esp in construction. NZ house prices will continue to rise, adding more inflationary pressure. We also have falling arrivals and rising departures....and better prospects are coming from overseas.
They also say skills shortages will prevail.
As many high volume countries have shrunk yet European markets have not increased, then after an initial high burst I think we can expect a low average SMC pass mark - NZIS may need to keep the door wide open to keep inflow up to provide workers, at risk of fuelling inflation on one end and infuruating employers on the other.
Catch 22, maybe.
However, as this Govt is more pro worker than pro employer, they might want to keep inflation down (keep immigration numbers down) and let the employer suffer.
This will also stifle one of their most fervent political opponents in a year or so, in the lead up to the next election.
It's wonderful strategy, but it's the wrong choice for NZ. And it means they run the risk of galvanising the business community into providing more active resistance to Government inititiatives. Could be an interesting election....
Jan 5th 2004, 12:38 pm
#2
Forum Regular
Joined: Jul 2003
Posts: 135
Re: Effects of NZIS policy changes
Originally posted by Jamie Smith
November net immigration immigration figures (Permanent and Long Term incl long term students) show that:
All of Asia incl india is down to 1/4 of original inflow;
China, down to 1/5
India, halved
Korea, lost more people than arrived
UK and Europe are static - polices have not yet shown gain in this region
SA and Zimbabwe have crashed - problems getting jobs?
NZIS has whacked about half the applications "in hand" on the head.
They had originally said that about 10,000 cases would be affected, but the sceptics amongst us have been proven right - about 25,000 fewer cases are in hand with the greatest drop of about 22,000 cases timed quite nicely after July changes ie lapsing.
This tells us that we were told the right percentages, just had the total numbers misrepresented to us. So they can calculate percentages but they can't count.
End result is the July policy changes have clearly set many countries back - I make no comment right or wrong.
Net inflow is now the lowest it has been for 2 years. Some would say "good thing", but abrupt changes are not good for NZ or applicants. Or the industry.
Largest single losses are in (Asian) students 15-24 years. This group are actually wanted to stay in NZ by NZIS as about 25% go on to apply for residence, speak English and have NZ quals.
Department of Labour estimates are that annual figures will be down by 1/3 on previous year. Hopefully this plunge will soon level out.
Expectation is however that, as policy is now tougher, incidence of fraud will escalate - esp in job offers, fabricated work experience and qualifications, paper spouses.
I don't advocate open slather immigration, but you do have to have attractive policies to get enough people applying to provide momentum to the market, and I think we're running too low. Problem has been that net migration has added more to demand than supply (more new consumerism rather than new participation in producing things ie working).
DOL says new migrant labour supply has not kept pace with demand as many have not found jobs, so the old polices were truly not working too well.
It's about time the Govt cranked up the marketing to employers to educate them about the migration process, and to minimise and form of prejudice in hiring staff. Without increased uptake of migrants into workforce, the forecast drop to about 13,000 migrants (net inflow) by 2005 will mean desperate circumstances for many employers.
Latest labour market stats www.dol.govt.nz show we have lowest unemployment for about 16 years, implying strong and growing labour shortages esp in areas of semi-skilled (yet policy is making it tougher to fill these jobs).
Also fuels wage growth and inflation, esp in construction. NZ house prices will continue to rise, adding more inflationary pressure. We also have falling arrivals and rising departures....and better prospects are coming from overseas.
They also say skills shortages will prevail.
As many high volume countries have shrunk yet European markets have not increased, then after an initial high burst I think we can expect a low average SMC pass mark - NZIS may need to keep the door wide open to keep inflow up to provide workers, at risk of fuelling inflation on one end and infuruating employers on the other.
Catch 22, maybe.
However, as this Govt is more pro worker than pro employer, they might want to keep inflation down (keep immigration numbers down) and let the employer suffer.
This will also stifle one of their most fervent political opponents in a year or so, in the lead up to the next election.
It's wonderful strategy, but it's the wrong choice for NZ. And it means they run the risk of galvanising the business community into providing more active resistance to Government inititiatives. Could be an interesting election....
November net immigration immigration figures (Permanent and Long Term incl long term students) show that:
All of Asia incl india is down to 1/4 of original inflow;
China, down to 1/5
India, halved
Korea, lost more people than arrived
UK and Europe are static - polices have not yet shown gain in this region
SA and Zimbabwe have crashed - problems getting jobs?
NZIS has whacked about half the applications "in hand" on the head.
They had originally said that about 10,000 cases would be affected, but the sceptics amongst us have been proven right - about 25,000 fewer cases are in hand with the greatest drop of about 22,000 cases timed quite nicely after July changes ie lapsing.
This tells us that we were told the right percentages, just had the total numbers misrepresented to us. So they can calculate percentages but they can't count.
End result is the July policy changes have clearly set many countries back - I make no comment right or wrong.
Net inflow is now the lowest it has been for 2 years. Some would say "good thing", but abrupt changes are not good for NZ or applicants. Or the industry.
Largest single losses are in (Asian) students 15-24 years. This group are actually wanted to stay in NZ by NZIS as about 25% go on to apply for residence, speak English and have NZ quals.
Department of Labour estimates are that annual figures will be down by 1/3 on previous year. Hopefully this plunge will soon level out.
Expectation is however that, as policy is now tougher, incidence of fraud will escalate - esp in job offers, fabricated work experience and qualifications, paper spouses.
I don't advocate open slather immigration, but you do have to have attractive policies to get enough people applying to provide momentum to the market, and I think we're running too low. Problem has been that net migration has added more to demand than supply (more new consumerism rather than new participation in producing things ie working).
DOL says new migrant labour supply has not kept pace with demand as many have not found jobs, so the old polices were truly not working too well.
It's about time the Govt cranked up the marketing to employers to educate them about the migration process, and to minimise and form of prejudice in hiring staff. Without increased uptake of migrants into workforce, the forecast drop to about 13,000 migrants (net inflow) by 2005 will mean desperate circumstances for many employers.
Latest labour market stats www.dol.govt.nz show we have lowest unemployment for about 16 years, implying strong and growing labour shortages esp in areas of semi-skilled (yet policy is making it tougher to fill these jobs).
Also fuels wage growth and inflation, esp in construction. NZ house prices will continue to rise, adding more inflationary pressure. We also have falling arrivals and rising departures....and better prospects are coming from overseas.
They also say skills shortages will prevail.
As many high volume countries have shrunk yet European markets have not increased, then after an initial high burst I think we can expect a low average SMC pass mark - NZIS may need to keep the door wide open to keep inflow up to provide workers, at risk of fuelling inflation on one end and infuruating employers on the other.
Catch 22, maybe.
However, as this Govt is more pro worker than pro employer, they might want to keep inflation down (keep immigration numbers down) and let the employer suffer.
This will also stifle one of their most fervent political opponents in a year or so, in the lead up to the next election.
It's wonderful strategy, but it's the wrong choice for NZ. And it means they run the risk of galvanising the business community into providing more active resistance to Government inititiatives. Could be an interesting election....
On Zimbabwe's crash, most skilled migrants in right age range have already left. Suspect figures will be down for Oz as well.
Thanks for post.
David
