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Economy stalling

Economy stalling

Old Jun 6th 2013, 3:11 am
  #16  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by verystormy View Post
Have to say, if I was a Pom, thinking of giving up a job in the UK, to move to Perth, I would be thinking again.
Rio Tinto and BHP are letting people go. The big tell for me was the cancellation of the gas hub at James Price Point. Resources economies are notoriously cyclical, we've had the pleasure maybe this is now the time for pain.

Good news if you want a cheap jetski, but!
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 4:49 am
  #17  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

For the first time, I now know more unemployed geologists in WA than employed. Most of those employed have their jobs under threat. The mining downturn is far bigger than the press have realized.
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 4:53 am
  #18  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by verystormy View Post
For the first time, I now know more unemployed geologists in WA than employed. Most of those employed have their jobs under threat. The mining downturn is far bigger than the press have realized.
I started a tread in the Barbie about it:

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=798936
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 4:57 am
  #19  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

We have recently bought GBP and I have sold ANZ shares ready for our UK trip next year.

I think/hope we've done the right thing.
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 6:50 am
  #20  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by verystormy View Post
I agree, if you aren't unemployed, then a recession is meaningless. Friends in the UK don't know what the fuss is about. All have done well, best made received his biggest bonus this year he has ever had, brother in law launched a restaurant which has been booked solid for a year.

But, when economic downturns occur, and here in WA, it certainly is biting, new migrants suffer particularly badly.

Have to say, if I was a Pom, thinking of giving up a job in the UK, to move to Perth, I would be thinking again.
We dont personally know anyone who is unemployed here or in Australia and everyone seems to be doing just fine, of course that doesnt mean many arent struggling in both countries as they clearly are. I agree though with the way things are going I wouldnt be making the move even with the exchange rate heading in the 'right' direction. It just seems as though things are catching up to the economy.
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 7:19 am
  #21  
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Smile Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by brissybee View Post
We have recently bought GBP and I have sold ANZ shares ready for our UK trip next year.

I think/hope we've done the right thing.
Surely ANZ would be a safer bet than CBA who are pretty hyped up on earning and much more dependent on earnings in Australia.

Either way probably right on a fall for the Australian dollar.
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 1:56 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

I was laid off from my job in the resource construction industry 6 weeks ago in Perth.

For the first 4 weeks I thought I would find a new job easily, but no joy. 2 weeks ago I wert to centrelink to make an unemployment claim.
They couldn't give me an appointment for 3 and a half weeks, it normally takes 2 weeks but they are rushed off their feet at the moment.

I think the next WA unemployment rates will show a big jump.

Mind you today I was offered a job in one of the local shipyards and I start a week on Monday. After I accepted the job I had 4 more calls asking if I was available for interviews etc . Famine or feast!

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Old Jun 6th 2013, 4:15 pm
  #23  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Not being great at economics, would a recession make the dollar stronger, or weaker against the pound?
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 4:30 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by Nottsscouse View Post
Not being great at economics, would a recession make the dollar stronger, or weaker against the pound?
Weaker. AUD is very susceptible not only to bad news at home, but also to bad news on a global scale. Pound is already quite weak, whereas the AUD still has a way to go if things start looking bad domestically or on an international level.
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 5:50 pm
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Weaker currencies promote exports though don't they?
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Old Jun 6th 2013, 6:55 pm
  #26  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by Nottsscouse View Post
Weaker currencies promote exports though don't they?
The textbook says that BUT .... In the UK for example the outgoing Governor of the Bank of England has been determined to get a weaker pound in the hope that it will stimulate exports and growth. Quantitative Easing (i.e. printing more money and putting it into the system via selling Government Bonds and providing funds for banks to lend), 'talking the pound down', reducing interest rates to extremely low levels and so on have been used.

The pound has certainly fallen but exports haven't risen substantially (what is there to export other than financial services which dominate exports? And who would have great confidence in dealing with the likes of RBS, Lloyds etc who had no small part to play in the GFC?)

Compared to the UK, Australian exports are made up of a higher proportion of 'visibles' (goods) and a lower proportion of 'invisibles' (services) and of course raw materials are very important. A weaker dollar would make things from Australia cheaper for the likes of Chinese manufacturers but if their growth rates are slowing down there is a limit to their capacilty to buy more, cheaper raw materials.

The AUD is being mainly affected by growing confidence in the greenback and the US economy's prospects. With it's comparatively strong growth rates in recent years and less exposure to the GFC, as well as comparatively higher interest rates, the AUD was seen (like gold) as a 'safer haven'. However, as confidence in the greenback is growing the AUD (and gold) have seen less demand and lower prices (i.e. exchange rate).

Some of the cross rates have not behaved similarly. For example, the AUD has fallen more against the pound than it has against other currencies like $US.
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Old Jun 7th 2013, 12:25 am
  #27  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by OzTennis View Post
The AUD is being mainly affected by growing confidence in the greenback and the US economy's prospects.
If we heard some really, really bad news from the US then the same would happen, with the AUD falling sharply, more so than the USD.
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Old Jun 7th 2013, 12:39 am
  #28  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Check out what happened when the GFC kicked off, the AUD dropped like a rock (30c vs USD???), of course we don't want another GFC (or the current one worsening).
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Old Jun 7th 2013, 1:44 am
  #29  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by coldbeer View Post
30c vs USD
60c
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Old Jun 7th 2013, 9:41 am
  #30  
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Default Re: Economy stalling

Originally Posted by astera View Post
If we heard some really, really bad news from the US then the same would happen, with the AUD falling sharply, more so than the USD.
Not necessarily. Whilst the Fed was pursuing a huge program of 'quantitative easing' and growth was not evident in the US economy it made the AUD stronger against the greenback and rise to record levels; when the Fed announced last month that it was 'easing the easing' and growth was starting in the US economy, AUD (and gold) fell.

Good news followed by bad news? Bad news followed by good news? Good news followed by good news?
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