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Old Jul 3rd 2003, 4:59 pm
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Default Dottys been posting Rot again

Did anyone watch Biz news last night, its on the Asia channel and also David Koch on Business tonight.

Both had great discussions on Property prices and the dollar.

Hot spot for property is supposed to be within a 15-20 klm radius of Sydney and Brisbane. Best growth being Brisbane predicted to be 36% over 3 years and admission by BIS Shrapnel that that is very conservative. Sydney has re-entered the race due to a huge infulux of OS immos and land shortage pushing up prices. Brisbane tho was clearly defined as the out and out pick of the bunch. Perth was predicted at 20%. 2007 was the guess when interest rates will rise although gawd knows who would really know the answer to that.

Dollar experts maintain any cut in interest rates will be small and very reluctant as the Reserve does not want to further fuel the housing market. Dollar expected to reach 70US by end of year.

Looks like my predictions on Briz are shared by a few of the economys Hob Nobs.
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Old Jul 3rd 2003, 6:11 pm
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May drastically reduce immigration next year if housing remains too hot.
 
Old Jul 3rd 2003, 7:55 pm
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Default Re: Dottys been posting Rot again

Originally posted by dotty
Did anyone watch Biz news last night, its on the Asia channel and also David Koch on Business tonight.

Both had great discussions on Property prices and the dollar.

Hot spot for property is supposed to be within a 15-20 klm radius of Sydney and Brisbane. Best growth being Brisbane predicted to be 36% over 3 years and admission by BIS Shrapnel that that is very conservative. Sydney has re-entered the race due to a huge infulux of OS immos and land shortage pushing up prices. Brisbane tho was clearly defined as the out and out pick of the bunch. Perth was predicted at 20%. 2007 was the guess when interest rates will rise although gawd knows who would really know the answer to that.

Dollar experts maintain any cut in interest rates will be small and very reluctant as the Reserve does not want to further fuel the housing market. Dollar expected to reach 70US by end of year.

Looks like my predictions on Briz are shared by a few of the economys Hob Nobs.
We'd better get in on the act asap then i guess...
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Old Jul 3rd 2003, 7:57 pm
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Originally posted by The Tooth Fairy
May drastically reduce immigration next year if housing remains too hot.
My thoughts exactly! I`d like to know how many people would still consider coming over here from the UK if house prices were as high/higher over here, and the Aus $/£ relationship goes even more pear-shaped (for those coming over)???
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 5:45 pm
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Another way of looking at it is house prices will rise after you buy here, and the dollar which is the currency you will now earn is going to be a stronger one.

If I was coming over they would be very important factors to me. Surely your wages in lots of 41p/68US conversion is preferable to wages in little lots of 33p/56US. Add the fact your house will go up in value and your total worth is much healthier.

You convert your pound to OZ once but you may earn the Ozzie dollar for the rest of your life.

Aussie outlook/Long term plan should be the one if emigrating not the initial wooopee on the one off conversion. Thats going to be spent and forgotten in no time, then its the Aussie$ your interested in.

Rising dollar should be what immigrants want to hear because thats gonna be you, your wages, your assets possibly for life!
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 6:10 pm
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Originally posted by dotty
Another way of looking at it is house prices will rise after you buy here, and the dollar which is the currency you will now earn is going to be a stronger one.

If I was coming over they would be very important factors to me. Surely your wages in lots of 41p/68US conversion is preferable to wages in little lots of 33p/56US. Add the fact your house will go up in value and your total worth is much healthier.

You convert your pound to OZ once but you may earn the Ozzie dollar for the rest of your life.

Aussie outlook/Long term plan should be the one if emigrating not the initial wooopee on the one off conversion. Thats going to be spent and forgotten in no time, then its the Aussie$ your interested in.

Rising dollar should be what immigrants want to hear because thats gonna be you, your wages, your assets possibly for life!
Very true...

However, the Aus $ is one of the world`s most volatile currencies, and the Oz housing market can`t keep going like this forever - imagine if you emigrated at $2.3 = £1, bought a house for $500,000 only to find that 12-18 months down the line the dollar is worth only $2.8 to the £, and the housing market is static....
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 6:41 pm
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Originally posted by Rosy
Very true...

However, the Aus $ is one of the world`s most volatile currencies, and the Oz housing market can`t keep going like this forever - imagine if you emigrated at $2.3 = £1, bought a house for $500,000 only to find that 12-18 months down the line the dollar is worth only $2.8 to the £, and the housing market is static....
Yep any currency can go anyway up or down. No guarantees anywhere at all. Thats the risk we take immigrating you loose that security you had. Its part and parcel of the deal.

Oz tho has begun to move and my moneys on it continuing, (no way I'd be here otherwise Biggest change I can see is it now wants to grow, it needs people to support its own, think its faced facts it could not hide behind a weak dollar forever but had to make its own way. Its far more bullish and probably realises it has to have more strings to its bow than exporting cheap slabs of meat. It has a need and that is growth, what other choice has it got?

I guess no body really knows till its happened. Crystal ball anyone.
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 6:49 pm
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Originally posted by Rosy
Very true...

However, the Aus $ is one of the world`s most volatile currencies, and the Oz housing market can`t keep going like this forever - imagine if you emigrated at $2.3 = £1, bought a house for $500,000 only to find that 12-18 months down the line the dollar is worth only $2.8 to the £, and the housing market is static....
They are good points, but money is not always the sole motivator in life. "Opportunity Cost"?
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 7:28 pm
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Originally posted by dotty
Yep any currency can go anyway up or down. No guarantees anywhere at all. Thats the risk we take immigrating you loose that security you had. Its part and parcel of the deal.

Oz tho has begun to move and my moneys on it continuing, (no way I'd be here otherwise Biggest change I can see is it now wants to grow, it needs people to support its own, think its faced facts it could not hide behind a weak dollar forever but had to make its own way. Its far more bullish and probably realises it has to have more strings to its bow than exporting cheap slabs of meat. It has a need and that is growth, what other choice has it got?

I guess no body really knows till its happened. Crystal ball anyone.
I know you don't like your particular experience of Australia Dotty, but you sound more upbeat. Australia needs people like you to drive it forward. Would you consider staying?
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Old Jul 4th 2003, 9:30 pm
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Originally posted by dotty
If I was coming over they would be very important factors to me. Surely your wages in lots of 41p/68US conversion is preferable to wages in little lots of 33p/56US. Add the fact your house will go up in value and your total worth is much healthier.

You convert your pound to OZ once but you may earn the Ozzie dollar for the rest of your life.
Does it really make much difference? Unless of course you are coming back here. Your wages whether they are 41p or 33p, will still be buying exactly the same down the local supermarket.

Maybe I'm missing something here, I'm a simple kind of bloke! but it makes no odds to me. I haven't been monitoring the GBP for the last 15 yrs or so, unless of course we go on holiday......which before you say it, yes, I know I won't be able to afford a holiday anymore.. ........so I won't be watching the NZD with much interest.

Gra...
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