Dollar falling again.
#1
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Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Previously County Durham. ENGLAND. Now in Mornington, Victoria. (via Brisbane)
Posts: 1,226
Dollar falling again.
Nearly made it to $2.40, but its dropping like a stone again. $2.35 today. Anyone know why?
#2
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 6,360
Re: Dollar falling again.
I asked this yesterday, only thoughts were something to do with price of oil.
Gutting nonetheless, hope it picks up again in the next few weeks...
Gutting nonetheless, hope it picks up again in the next few weeks...
#3
Re: Dollar falling again.
Sorry to be pedantic but it is the pound that is falling and the dollar is strengthening.
The immediate outlook for the dollar at the moment is down so perhaps it will get back to $2.40'ish soon?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
OzTennis
The immediate outlook for the dollar at the moment is down so perhaps it will get back to $2.40'ish soon?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
OzTennis
#4
Re: Dollar falling again.
Originally Posted by paulb
Nearly made it to $2.40, but its dropping like a stone again. $2.35 today. Anyone know why?
Two weeks ago the US dollar suffered a sharp sell off when the southern states were devastated by hurricane Katrina. Oil production and refinery activities around the Gulf coast were brought almost to a complete stop. Suspicions were voiced that the Federal Reserve may suspend the strategy of tighter money that was expected to add at least a further half percent this year to the current Fed funds rate of 3.5%. Over the course of the last week the foreign exchange market has reappraised the situation. Refinery capacity is being restored and strategic petroleum reserves have been released. Whilst the removal of manufacturing and commercial businesses is expected to slow the economy in the short term, the rebuilding effort will add to activity in later quarters. At its meeting next week, the Federal Open Market Committee is once again expected to proceed with its policy of higher interest rates.
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The US dollar trended stronger against most currencies over the last week, making ground against both the kiwi dollar and the pound. The aussie dollar, almost uniquely, rose against the US dollar. Sterling, which opened last Monday above A$2.40, lost more than three cents over the seven days.
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Economic data for the major currencies were not scrutinised as closely as usual last week. The market preferred instead to peer hopefully through its binoculars at the longer-term picture. For Australia, however, that long-term picture received a boost from good GDP and employment figures. Second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations at 1.3%, achieving a worth 2.6% for the year. Employment rose yet again, this time by nearly 33,000 in July, leaving the headline unemployment rate at 5.0%. The Reserve Bank, as anticipated, left the cash rate target unchanged at 5.5%.
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The OECD downgraded to 1.9% its estimate of UK economic growth for the current year. This would leave it well short of the chancellor’s earlier projections of 3.0%-3.5%. On the positive side, three indices showed house prices rising at a rate of between two percent and four percent over the year. The Halifax actually measured a 1.6% rise for the month of August on its own but nobody tried to project that into the 20% annual rise that it would appear to suggest. The Monetary Policy Committee elected to hold base rates at 4.5% and the belief continues to grow that no further rate cuts will be forthcoming this year.
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Sterling interest rates look good but aussie rates look better, and the relativity is not about to change. Seekers after yield are putting their spare cash into the aussie dollar in preference to sterling. Expect the pound to continue looking heavy against the aussie over the coming week.
#5
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Joined: Sep 2003
Location: Bayside
Posts: 93
Re: Dollar falling again.
The best forecast for tomorrow's exchange rate is today's, except for the time value of money. Therefore I predict my prediction for the short term move has 50% chance of being right!
#7
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Location: Previously County Durham. ENGLAND. Now in Mornington, Victoria. (via Brisbane)
Posts: 1,226
Re: Dollar falling again.
Originally Posted by Brizbound
The best forecast for tomorrow's exchange rate is today's, except for the time value of money. Therefore I predict my prediction for the short term move has 50% chance of being right!
#8
Re: Dollar falling again.
Originally Posted by Brizbound
The best forecast for tomorrow's exchange rate is today's, except for the time value of money. Therefore I predict my prediction for the short term move has 50% chance of being right!
Rolling a 6 on a 6 sided die? It happens or it doesn't.
Winning the lottery? It happens or it doesn't.
Easy to see how I passed A level Maths...
S
#9
Re: Dollar falling again.
Originally Posted by paulb
Nearly made it to $2.40, but its dropping like a stone again. $2.35 today. Anyone know why?
#10
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,129
Re: Dollar falling again.
I'm glad I got 2.37 a few weeks ago (Moneycorp) - even if the websites are displaying rates of 2.4 - its unlikely you will actually GET that rate - thats the rate they buy at not sell - best thing to do is play them all off each other. looking at the rates over the past 2 weeks you'd be lucky to get 2.37 but as we all know it can all change so quickly - i'm happy with my decision though - phone the currency traders - don't go with figures diplayed on the websites and don't be afraid to speak out and say - 'well i'll go and phone HIFX now and see what they can offer me' Its amazing how they suddenly want to check the computer again for a better rate!!!
Lynn
Lynn
#11
Re: Dollar falling again.
Jammy b*gger Lynn getting that much...ours stuck in commonwealth we were going to hold out for 2.4 but may move sooner in case it falls as sick of the money thing already.
Still think moneycorp may offer better service than commonwealth as as I said in other post commonwealth got us to shift cash to them and then said oh yes we do move at fixed rate but you have to ring us on the day.
Waste of space if you ask me if you have to do all the leg work yourself... .
On the positive side USA are expecting hurricane tonight so if that leaves everyone alive but lowers USA dollar I may smile.
Still think moneycorp may offer better service than commonwealth as as I said in other post commonwealth got us to shift cash to them and then said oh yes we do move at fixed rate but you have to ring us on the day.
Waste of space if you ask me if you have to do all the leg work yourself... .
On the positive side USA are expecting hurricane tonight so if that leaves everyone alive but lowers USA dollar I may smile.