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-   -   Does anyone understand the economic thinking here (https://britishexpats.com/forum/australia-54/does-anyone-understand-economic-thinking-here-404289/)

annqldau Oct 26th 2006 2:35 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by OzTennis
http://i68.photobucket.com/albums/i31/ozt/Tescooooo.jpg

One of the main reasons why a Reserve Bank (or Monetary Committee of the Bank of England) will increase interest rates is to dampen down inflationary pressures if latest economic stats indicate that this problem is emerging. There are other reasons why rates might move eg exchange rates, housing market booming/sagging, balance of payments problems etc, etc but in this instance one suspects that recent RBA and BofE rate rises and the ones expected in the UK and Australia in the next few months are mainly to dampen down inflationary pressures. As said, in an historical context real interest rates in both countries are extremely low at the present time even with recent rises.

BTW vis a vis (or should that be Visa :D ) the profits of Coles and Woolies, Tesco recently announced half yearly profits of £1.1 bn and they have soared to 31.4% of the market (UK government definition of monopoly power is in excess of 25% of a market so we await the verdict of the investigation into the power of the supermarkets which has been ongoing for 2 years now).

Lest one should think consumer credit/debt is only an antipodean problem:

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debtstats.htm

OzTennis :)

That was a very serious answer have you had 3 shredded wheat.

wheatsheaf42 Oct 26th 2006 4:43 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by Wendy
Before we came out, our Gas direct debit was £38 per month and our electricity was £97 a month!! :scared:

Out of interest what is it now for you?

annqldau Oct 26th 2006 9:32 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by wheatsheaf42
Out of interest what is it now for you?

Don't have gas but our electric was $137.70 for period from 3/7/06 to 3/10/06 so roughly about $46 so about 20 to 22 quid a month, don't think that's too bad.

BadgeIsBack Oct 26th 2006 9:46 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by CHnJ
What's so wrong with a little inflation for Joe Average? In a year bread goes from $3 to $6, but his wage rise will compensate. However, his new wage lets him pay his home loan twice as fast because his home was bought with last year's money. That's how folks got manageable mortgages in the bad old days of the inflationary 70s and early 80s.

True- something that the baby boomers enjoyed - seeing their debt inflated away! I've said this before. Now is a good time to be a 60 something.

wheatsheaf42 Oct 26th 2006 10:28 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
True- something that the baby boomers enjoyed - seeing their debt inflated away! I've said this before. Now is a good time to be a 60 something.

Inflation is great for people who have debts and are in a job since the debt goes down in real value as the pay level rises along with prices. Mind you with mortgages there is the small matter of increasing interest rates which go hand in hand with inflation as states try to combat it.

Unfortunately there is the mass of people who are on relatively fixed incomes who have to pay for everyday things whch are going up in price and slowly (usually) but surely become increasingly relatively poor. So grannies and granddads suffer, along with people on state benefits generally.

Wendy Oct 26th 2006 11:11 am

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by wheatsheaf42
Out of interest what is it now for you?


Our gas bill was $78 for 90 days and our electricity was $412 for 88 days.

We have only gas water heating, everything else is electric and I will admit to being a soft bugger and having the air con on hot for 6 weeks :o (well it was cold, honest! :D ) Still miles cheaper though.

My food shopping bills are between $100 and $150 a week. I find we are spending less here than we were in the UK, although with no income coming in yet, we are being conservative with our spending.

Wol Oct 26th 2006 12:26 pm

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by CHnJ
What's so wrong with a little inflation for Joe Average? In a year bread goes from $3 to $6, but his wage rise will compensate. However, his new wage lets him pay his home loan twice as fast because his home was bought with last year's money. That's how folks got manageable mortgages in the bad old days of the inflationary 70s and early 80s.

Ohhh ... hang on ... that cost the LENDERS money.

So now we have "good" "stable" economies with low inflation. So your loan which cost 5x your salary will still cost 5x your salary for a long long time. Whenever inflation comes to your aid, the interest rate hikes follow and hold you at the same level.

The banks are happy though, and that's the main thing : )

And those of us who indirectly lend the money for those mortgages in exchange for interest. There are two sides to inflation. Anyone who thinks that an economy will prosper in anything but the short term with high inflation needs a reality check.

ugez009sumi Oct 26th 2006 3:44 pm

Re: Does anyone understand the economic thinking here
 

Originally Posted by jad n rich
Were told to expect another interest rate rise and then another one in februrary, which makes 7 in 2 years.

Latest reasons given in todays australian newpaper, food has soared another 9.9% in the last quarter :eek: fruit has soared another 20% in the last quarter. What sort of a mess are we in to have price rises like that :scared:

So then everytime the cost of living soars we are told interest rate rises will make the consumer tighten their belts. Given most of these reasons for the rate rises are essential consumer items, interesting thinking.

Doesnt gel with me, interest rate rises get passes on, prices rise again, creating an outlook of never ending price and interest rate rises.

The countries in its 6th year of drought none of this helps that problem either.

Another aspect is this is already affecting the housing market, yet the government is so out of touch its still saying there is a trade shortage, not in the housing industry theres not ! Plenty of tradies out of work now.


What you must remeber about this interest rate issue is the country is running at 2 speeds, in WA boom is happening, NSW it is cool, the interest rate rise will be to cool of the boom part of the economy.

Austrlia will be a donut once rio has drilled out the middle....


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