Currency Mayhem
 

http://www.dailyfx.com/currency_aud_thomson.html

Get that? SIX YEAR HIGH for the AUD 'Peso' - Peso no longer I reckon.

Those of you going imminently like us, get ready to be a A LOT less well off than you're expecting. The $AUD continues to rise - we effectively lost $2,250 OVERNIGHT as we're still waiting for our house sale equity to come through, and the rate fell from 2.39 to 2.36.

This really is choking stuff - I'd based most of our calculations on roughly 2.5 as a 'safe' guess, knowing there'd be a cushion in there. Now it's looking like being 2.3 or even 2.2.

Golden rule - plan early. We didn't. Didn't even THINK about it stupidly. This is a bolt out of the blue. We're VERY unhappy, and resenting those uber-rich 'investors' (morons gambling with people's lives/livelehoods) who drive the money merry-go-round more each day.

Still, great the other way round, well done Australia. Isn't life a ironic/a shit?

:scared: :confused: :(

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Golden rule - plan early. We didn't. Didn't even THINK about it stupidly. This is a bolt out of the blue. We're VERY unhappy, and resenting those uber-rich 'investors' (morons gambling with people's lives/livelehoods) who drive the money merry-go-round more each day.

It's partly the morons like thee and me who want to buy AU$$ that drives the markets, you know!

Supply and demand.

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Sympathise with you - I know how frustrating this is. Just before we came out the rate was up near 2.9 for months. Sudddenly it dived to 2.56. "exchange now" my sister yells from Oz "it's going to keep falling". So we exchanged at 2.56. A week later it had climbed back to over 2.7. Bummer!

The irony for us is that we are going back in December.....so we are exchanging everything back at a better rate for us - it's all swings and roundabouts really tho - we'll probably end up with more or less the same as we had before we left!!

Bet you wouldn't be cursing the 'morons' if the rates had gone the other way!! :)

Goodluck with the house sale and move

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

It's partly the morons like thee and me who want to buy AU$$ that drives the markets, you know!

Supply and demand.




Fair comment, too true.

But yes and no. Yes, we're creating demand. No, we're not influencing/dictating the price because of this directly - many other factors are driving that, one of which is the fact that the bigwigs are seeing no return with impossibly low interest rates in the US/Europe, little value in an artificial stock market, whereas Oz is looking increasingly attractive because of raw commodity values ie gold and minerals. So they all flock there, push the price up...until they lose interest and pick the next target. Happened with tech stocks didn't it? Capitalist markets are fine to a point, they drive free market trading, but it galls me that only those at the very top really benefit.

At least on the surface that's what's happening. We figured Oz has a bright future because of this amongst many other unrelated things (ie it has great potential to be self sufficient, even an exporter of ever rarer mineral commodities), we just didn't figure it would all happen so soon. It's not SO tied to Europe, er, the US, er where exactly in the North Atlantic are we these days? Just south of Iceland?

Well done Mr Blair. Notice how sharply the £ dropped when you invaded Iraq. Good on ya. Next big drop will be the 33% slump when we join the Euro, eh?

This is all speculation. I have no idea really, just an armchair cynic. I'm just pissed off this morning. Rant over.

We just have to grin and bear it and smile sweetly when it works the other way around for us. Maybe. Hence the move NOW whatever the circumstances.

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

I sympathise with everyone who is going to change GBP£'s into AUS$'s over the next year or so. Unfortunately those who manipulate the FX markets and affect the ER's are the big players - banks, pensions funds, corporations etc - and not the individuals with comparatively small sums like ourselves.

Here's an example of how the markets could be worked. It has been widely expected that the ER for the £ would fall from 2.5 to 2.2. So you are a bank with say £100 mill, you change it @2.5 and change it back @ 2.2 - result £113.636 mill less commission. As the big players are looking for returns for shareholders or contributors it is understandable behaviour. Have they earned it, is it morally right etc are other issues - they can do it legally. They also lose money sometimes as well through wrong guessing and analysis it must be said.

The point of this is ..... I wish I had a large sum of money to speculate with :D 'Many a pound (or dollar) was lost for the want of a pound (or dollar) in the first place' someone said.

Good luck to everyone with their dealings.

TennisOz:)

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Know how you feel, I also did the same as you and based my calculations at 2.5 . with the rate as it is at the moment I've lost around $35,000!! Complete nightmare, I'm just praying it will go up again.

Pudnut...

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

could get a new Camry for that!!

:-(

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Yep, or 2 Hyundai Accents or Kia somethings. Puts it in perspective doesn't it. I love the car ads with free air - well you'd expect air in your tyres wouldn't you until you realise it is free air conditioning.:D

TennisOz:)

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Hindsight, as they say is 20/20.

Peter

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

Yes, but seriously, who saw this coming? Of all the things we've planned, I NEVER figured a rate rise in Oz would wipe 6c off the rate. And why on earth hasn't that been reciprocated with the rate increase here?

It's my mother again - buggering the world's finance markets.

Anything to get me to stay..

We are not happy bunnies either. We based our exchange on 2.5 to the £, when we applied it was nearly 2.9!! We have a large amount to transfer that we have worked hard to get and will be getting a lot less for it. It just means we will have to work a bit harder when we get there to make up for it.

People have been speculating on this site for months, but no-one can ever say guaranteed what is going to happen.

I am still not sure if we should exchange it all and accept the low rate or hope that it might rise a little bit to 2.4 first and then transfer the balance.

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

As has been mentioned in another thread the Australian dollar is not strongly linked to the £ so there is no reason why the UK IR rise of 0.25% should have cancelled out the same rise in Australian IR's. The A$ is now linked firmly to the US$ and they just posted 3rd qtr annualised growth rates in output of 7.2%. There is also a strong link with the yen and the Japanese economy shows signs of coming out of a long slump. This together with favourable inflation rates and growth figures in Australia has caused a strengthening of the A$. The £ not going into the euro yet and what seems like an attempt to 'talk down' the £ to make possible later entry easier has added to the situation. Hard to take I know (affects us!) but it has been predicted and expected that the A$ would get stronger.

TennisOz:)

Re: Currency Mayhem
 

..and that's why I'm kicking myself so hard...it's such a major point I hadn't considered, bothered reasearching, read up about...complacent prat. Doh!

Tennis - do you think it'll creep down further in the next month or so - I'm seriously thinking about forward buying a chunk before it slides down to 2.30. The Japan election was kind of indecisive, and the US is now posting 'better than expected (ie probably spun)' economic figures - bit of respite before the Euro realy kicks in?

Nixstuff

rates
 

well - i've just changed our cash - got rate of 2.3340 with commonwealth - i should have changed it months, weeks ago, doesn't matter now - please can no one tell me if the rates go up!

Now just got to concentrate on moving out there.....

Bertie

IMHO I believe you have made the right move. I always worried that the exchange rate would move so far, it didn't become viable to go to Australia.