OzTennis

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...855437281.html

OzTennis

ABCDiamond

It is confusing isnt it

I like this quote
"In a new report today, consultants BIS Shrapnel say the housing bubble will not burst just yet, but rather, prices will continue rising until they finally crash in 2006-07."

sembonor

Which one do you like? The 'rising' part or the 'crash' part?

wmoore

I like "consultants BIS Shrapnel", which may be what follows a "crash"

scitta

I love this part
Sarah

MikeStanton

And haven't they changed their very small minds. Ah yes, those BIS consultants - they put the 'z' in IQ. The Economist has been predicting a substantial downturn in the Oz housing market since mid'2003.

Here's an extract from an ABC interview in mid-2003 with BIS:

Our [ABC] Finance Correspondent Stephen Long has been speaking to the director of building services at BIS Shrapnel, Robert Mellor, who says there's no prospect of a housing market crash.

ROBERT MELLOR: No, I don't think we ever were, I think there are some economists out there and people such as you know, The Economist magazine who have been talking about a housing crash, but the fundamentals are so strong for housing generally around Australia and for residential property that, because of very strong population growth driven by higher overseas migration into Australia, which is much higher than we previously all understood because of new Bureau of Statistics figures, you know we're basically getting around 135-140,000 people per annum coming into the country, net, and that's driving strong demand.

STEPHEN LONG: So you're talking about home prices going up by up to 36 per cent over the next three years. What's that going to do to home price affordability?

ROBERT MELLOR: Look, it'll be a major issue for affordability. In the case of Brisbane really they missed out on any strong price growth during the late 1990s, so therefore basically the sort of increase that we're looking at really brings it back into line to sort of long-term movements.

STEPHEN LONG: Because you're talking about big increases in Brisbane as well as Sydney, aren't you?

ROBERT MELLOR: That's right, Brisbane will be the stand-out market and really, one needs to remember that in a long-term sense, Brisbane prices have been undervalued. They've risen over the last eighteen months to two years but they've been significantly undervalued and this is catch-up time driven by very high population growth, not only in Brisbane but throughout south-east Queensland generally.

STEPHEN LONG: So if you're predictions are right, I guess that's bad news for those of us with mortgages and variable rates. I know your colleagues are BIS Shrapnel have predicted that interest rates will rise to about ten per cent, possibly higher by 2006.

Do you stand by that prediction?

ROBERT MELLOR: We do, and if anything over the last three or four months as we've re-analysed what's happening in housing because of that stronger underlying demand I think the inevitability of interest rates getting up to 10 per cent is just further confirmed.



Really, BIS? If you were correct, there would be a continuing boom as those 'fundamentals' still exist. 3 years growth - up to 2006. I don't think so.

In other words, what a load of boll***s!

sembonor

I like that BIS consultant:

Never give up!

JasonFK

The so called experts seem just as confused as the rest of us. However if you are planning to buy & hold till at least the next boom cycle (ie 7 to 10 years from now) then it doesn't matter whats going to happen that much as historically property doubles in value in Oz on average every 7-10 years. Same as everywhere else it all comes down to not paying too much when you buy (via due dilligence & adequate research) & if you ask me go for a house rather than an apartment as its the land that improves in value not the building.

A lot of ppl are holding back thinking prices are actually going to get cheaper, I think thats true to a small extent but on the other hand interest rates are going to rise soon & probably a number of times. (predictions up to 10% by 06-07 are fairly consistent across the board). I've discovered today that I can change from a variable to a 5 year fixed loan for the same interest rate so I'm heading of to do that this week. 7.07% for 5 years sounds nice and viable to me. So if I was planning on buying I'd forget waiting for bargains & head in to buy asap as even a .5% rise will cost you a further $25 000 over the next 5 years on a $250 000 loan.

Happy hunting!
JasonFK

Don

Ah, but the Economist has predicted 18 of the last 5 recessions.

arnie2oz

Don

Blim blim!

markeh

That's it I'm not going untill the bubble busts!!!!

Wife, back to work and stop buying sunblock!!!

Bye
Mark

ABCDiamond

2 headlines from The Australian (found using google search on "Property Bubble Burst"


The Australian: Housing bubble has burst, says RBA [May 08, 2004]
... THE housing bubble has burst, with property prices .....
www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/ 0,5744,9502043%255E421,00.html


The Australian:
Housing bubble 'safe from bursting' [May 31, 2004]
... BIS Shrapnel has downplayed fears the housing bubble will burst
www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/ 0,5744,9699165%255E25658,00.html


Has it or hasn't it ?

RichS

I'll potentially have between 550 and 650 to buy a house with (all depends on where we buy).
I can't do anything for another year, but I have started monitoring certain areas we are interested in.
I can tell you that prices in all those areas (by that I mean asking prices and posted sales results) are moving in the right direction for me - downwards. This is all Sydney regionals.

Brisbane seems to me to be rising a little.

sembonor

It is not the message that is important, it is who said that is important.

I believe all those who said something had their intention in saying what they needed to say. So, they can say what they want to say to make people say what they have to say and so can we.

The truth is even Alan Greenspan is as confused as everybody when it comes to economic driven by herd mentality.