Originally Posted by paulry

After reading some of the responses here and given that the Australian property bubble looks ready to pop I would make a much lower initial offer. In fact I'm not sure that I would risk entering the property market at this stage.

Originally Posted by fish.01

What do you think is going to make it pop now?

Originally Posted by paulry

Sorry, perhaps pop was too strong a word for me to put on it. More like a gradual deflation. The prices appear outrageously high as a start. I hear that loads of businesses are struggling which will inevitably lead at some stage to redundancies. I also hear that people are struggling to maintain their monthly payments given the high value to income ratios. And cashed up migrants willing to buy with their weakened currencies are becoming rarer so demand is reduced. It surely has to translate to lower house prices some time soon?

Originally Posted by fish.01

Employment seems to be strengthening if anything. My company is back to hiring again. Mining boom again. Talk of skills shortages is returning. I thought just the pound had dropped not the yuan etc? I think the steam has already gone out of house prices with some drops reported. Without some major cause, rising unemployment, china crash etc, I suspect they may just flatten until inflation reduces house price/salary ratio over time.

Originally Posted by paulry

Where I'm at right now we're staring redundancies and economic hardship in the face.

Originally Posted by pomtastic

Where are you buying? Makes a HUGE difference. Plenty of suburbs in Perth for example have 150+ houses up for sale and yet on 10 under offer or sold. You can lowball as much as you want.

Agents are ****ing arseholes here in Aus, just 6 weeks of training and they are 'qualified'. If the agent knows you are a newbie then they'll play on your ignorance. On my rare occassions that I go to home opens the agent always gives me the spiel thinking that I've just got off the boat and say I've got to hurry up and buy before the 'boom'. I then tell them I have several investment properties that I'd like to sell NOW but as you reckon they are on the up, I'll hold off!

A 530K offer on a 550K property is very fair (depending on valuation of course), tell the agent you're looking a 5 similar properties and your offer if for 48 hours only.

JUST REMEMBER, A REAL ESTAtE AGENT NEEDS NO TERTIARY QUALIFIACATIONS, SAME AS A SECOND HAND CAR DEALER, BUT WORSE!!

Originally Posted by New_guy123

The house that we made an offer was in Kellyville Ridge, NSW. It was 4BR, 2 toilets, 2 garages, single storey house, 3yrs old, 420sqm.

Originally Posted by asprilla

that's a really rubbish rule !

Originally Posted by fish.01

Employment seems to be strengthening if anything. My company is back to hiring again. Mining boom again. Talk of skills shortages is returning. I thought just the pound had dropped not the yuan etc? I think the steam has already gone out of house prices with some drops reported. Without some major cause, rising unemployment, china crash etc, I suspect they may just flatten until inflation reduces house price/salary ratio over time.

Originally Posted by Steve2009

What's your basis for making that statement having no knowledge of these markets? I would say it's quite a good rule for markets where there is zero price information except asking prices.

Originally Posted by Steve2009

The soft landing has been spruiked in other housing bubbles before, perhaps every housing bubble before. I would think when considering the likelihood of a pop that an important factor in the decision making process would be whether that pop is likely to happen in the first half of your mortgage term. If it happens after that then it's frustrating but not seriously detrimental to your financial wellbeing, i.e. you may have lost equity but you're not in serious negative equity. Personally I would prefer not to lose the equity at all, so am happy to enjoy the savings I can get from renting. Also, by the by, inflation is never guaranteed.

Originally Posted by asprilla

Well my basis is quite straightforward. There is no science in your "rule" whatsoever. Therefore, it is a rubbish rule.

Originally Posted by asprilla

For someone who enjoys renting so much, you've got more than a passing interest in property markets. I find this peculiar.

Originally Posted by New_guy123

Hi Guys,

After getting our PR we decided to look for a house (first time buyer). We found one house that we like and made an offer. Price of the house is 550K, we made an offer to start at 530K. The real estate agent said "are you joking on your offer?".

Originally Posted by paulry

Sorry, perhaps pop was too strong a word for me to put on it. More like a gradual deflation. The prices appear outrageously high as a start. I hear that loads of businesses are struggling which will inevitably lead at some stage to redundancies. I also hear that people are struggling to maintain their monthly payments given the high value to income ratios. And cashed up migrants willing to buy with their weakened currencies are becoming rarer so demand is reduced. It surely has to translate to lower house prices some time soon?