Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

It's a long way from bottoming in Perth.

Many houses in 'normal' suburbs are still way over the UKs average and the rest of Australia's.

And none of the fundamentals - mining, economy or in-migration appear to be that solid anymore.

Drops have occurred in the last year - and that was before the miners started canning projects.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

The bottom ??? The crash has only just begun!

Read housepricecrash and globalhousepricecrash forum and put a search in for Australia....lots of very knowledgeable posters on both forums.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Perth was the last area to rise, and is therefore some way behind the rest of Australia.
In fact, Perth was still rising fast when Sydney had already begun to fall.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Just as knowledgeable as on housepriceboom and globalhouseprimeboom ;)

Everyone is an expert, but no one really knows for sure what will happen around the next corner.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

I'd second that!

Too many so called 'experts' with vested interests made/trying to look independent when they're not and Oz is no different.

No matter what the REIV etc say I'm sitting on my dosh for the moment - my 'expert' 10 cents worth

What is it with needing to buy as soon as the plane lands when renting makes much more $$$ sense for all sorts of reasons at least initially? (IMHO)

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

This is what people resort to saying when the evidence starts pointing toward a conclusion that they don't like.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

:confused:

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Yes.... listening to the "experts" is definitely correct! :rofl: I might be wrong but I thought it was the "experts" who got everyone into this or missed it all together! :curse:

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

You have to sift the information. The best starting point is to find out the vested interests of the "expert" in question. Do they own property, investment houses, etc?

Vested interests drive most of the "another boom on the horizon" reports you will see in the mainstream media. The analysis starts from the conclusion they want to hear.

This goes for some of the large economic research forecasters, most of whom have been atrociously wrong in recent years. Banks too.

Most "experts" are highly selective in their use of information that suits their desired conclusion.

You have to be selective in which "experts" you listen to. Some actually talk sense.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Personally I feel that prices will stay pretty much as they are around here. The median prices may drop, as the more expensive properties may not sell, but with sales of the lower value properties rising, this will drag the median price down, even if these specific properties have risen in value.

Median House Prices in my area have risen by 5.2% per year on average, for the last 4 years.
However, because they have been building larger and more expensive houses, this does not mean that existing houses have gone up by the same values.
Actual existing properties appear to have gone up by about 3.8% per year average over the same time scale.

Over a longer time scale this difference gets much wider.

Median prices have tended to go up much faster than actual prices, and will drop faster than actual prices also.

That's my view.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

I also think we have only just started in parts of Melbourne!

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Its not easy to judge because different stratus are fairing differently.

Upper dropping like a bomb 15% to 30% drop
People walking away between auction and settlement and foregoing 10% deposit. Not too sure on what implications are when these homes onsell for less than 90%. The law states they are still liable ie agree at auction to $4m sale price, pay 10% $400k walk away house sells for $3m therefore liable for additional $600k
(also hard to judge exactly because from what benchmark are we to calculate they are dropping from? Case in point a house near us advertised for $2.3m sold at auction $1.6m. Do we go from the $2.3m or from a more realistic $1.9m with which the agent quoted but seller still wanted to try for $2.5m ($2.3m +)

Middle 3% decline

Lower doing well 6% growth

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Eff it Shane..I'd buy two for that price:lol:

We were told yesterday that its this type of propert that will be hardest hit (shame!) closely followed buy overpriced new built estates of the last couple of years...

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Karma is a wonderful concept.

High returns also bring about high losses.

I am so luving calling agents :sneaky: in a downward market.

Re: Bottom of the property cycle reached ?
 

Bottom? hehe, when the nation is in pain, have lost faith and can't call a bottom, we will be closer to a bottom. As long as people are calling a bottom we have a very long way to go.

Government is sometimes similar to religion, its can be a pack of lies to control a mass population in order to help. Have to laugh at Oz government saying that Australia is in best shape to weather the storm. Gordon Brown said the exactly the same thing about the UK and two months later its the worst hit. So on this theory, two months and the shit will hit the fan in Australia and the fall will begin.

If you check the graph it happens regular and almost like clockwork. Every time the outcome is 100% the same, the bubble bursts, it never slightly drops or stagnates. Stimulus and rate cuts have great effect when used correctly, but are just a barely noticeable blip on the graph. They soften the blow for everyone and make the overall drop less, but make the crisis prolonged. A good example is recently when japan just wouldn't just leave things fail, the bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices bottoming in 2003.

Each time just before we fall we tell ourselves we're the peak of humanity and so our more advanced ways will make things turn out different this time, then we fall and look back and think how we didn't predict this. History doesn't write the future, but until the fundamentals of a boom and bust system are changed, history will be repeated.

This is the worst crisis since The Great Depression, so far, most of the people that bought a house in last 3 years will lose it, plenty more too. It will take at least one year to bottom for each country and who knows how bad things can get. A nasty world recession is guaranteed, worst scenario? mid 2009 America fails, capitalism falls, declining tide, all boats fall. ok, time for some smileys...

:eek::thumbsup::eek: