the troubadour

There is no freedom of choice when economic policy on such a basic scale, such as over loading cities leading to spiralling living costs and stagnant wages, housing costs so high that few can afford without a lifetime of serious mortgage debt to banks, at a time of ever unreliable employment and the casualization of ever more jobs.


Just what happens to all these recently imported people, come the next recession and less labour required?


What Australia needs is to get rid of Bizonmics. Get back to reality. Of course without massive migration the growth figures will show how bad things really are.

Beoz

You keep preaching the same message but didn't answer the last set of questions.

Then in an about turn you now accept things are good and are waiting the next recession.

What happens to people in the next recession? Same as the last. Halting growth as you want to happen will only help to bring on a recession.

Here's an idea. Vote Libs. They tend to keep us out of recessions. Labor are self destructive and will send us into one. Like the last.

Beoz

Must have been reading BE.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-s-economic-argument-against-immigration-is-flawed-20180225-p4z1ml.html

Read til the last line as per usual.

the troubadour

Abbott's arguments, I'm sorry to say, as not a fan of the man, but in this case is on the money. I doubt very much if he would have raised the issue if still PM, but never mind he is correct. Only to be expected the vast foray of establishment and business and rent seekers are lining up to take a swipe at him. It points very much to the sad state this nation is in. Even he is not saying to stop immigration, just return it to a normal level.
Sydney Morning Herald wouldn't under the influence of the real estate lobby due to advertising as most journals are, now would they?


You hoping to get a non biased article from an Australian journal......????

the troubadour

The only message being too many people, here we are talking growth rates above all similar developed countries and not a few developing ones as being a positive thing. We are not growing. We are playing catch up from a considerable distance.
No it won't be as last, due to runaway house prices and excessive demand as welfare system becomes over loaded.
Forget your big fail Libs, go Sustainable Party of Australia to at least restore some balance and take the pot of the boil.

Beoz

Why don't you read articles in full. The last line is the key.

As I have said, if you keep the servicing the growing population, then its a non issue.

You must have one major chip about self worth if you actually believe it is an issue.

Beoz

Its commonly known that house price growth, in Sydney and Melbourne, has been because of low interest rates and easy accessible loans for investors. Nothing to do with population growth as the creation of new dwellings has kept pace. If there was an issue we would have a massive homelessness problem and we don't.

Its no longer easy for an investor to get a loan and in many areas of Sydney, mainly out west, house prices have come down.

So what's the gripe then? Don't you want to live out west when you move to Sydney?

Hold on.

The main sector of migration growth has been in skilled migration, overseas students, and the Humanitarian Program

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...tionStatistics

Skilled migrants add to the economy as they pay tax. They put in more than they take out.

Overseas students add to the economy by paying whopping great fees, rent, etc. They are not eligible for welfare.

The Humanitarian Program. Ok lets say some add to the economy when they get work but many struggle upon arrival. But being nice we will let that fly.

Which one shall we choose?

the troubadour

No still not there. Lets see if I can help you along the road to true under standing. Obviously with a inquiry into banking practices under way, the financial industry, feeding on the teat of the housing industry for so long, much to the determent of real wealth creators in the form of small business, they have had to pull their head in when it comes to loans. Still a lot of damage has been done with interest only loans, foreign investor loans ...but I degrees. So in your view a record number of migrants does not impact on housing prices? Lets look at that theory. Now say for a moment these incomers were of the professional and expertise quality you continue to advocate they are, surely they within a reasonable period of adjustment, say one year, eighteen months desire to purchase own property? Being of such status, one may assume their income will be above the majority of Australians and give them advantage and further pushing up prices.


Sydney does not have enough houses. Record number of Australians are not buying a property. A record number consider they will likely always rent. Never heard the term Generation Rent?


But the reality is most are not high earners and thus add to the rental competition in the main cities as well as compete for jobs.


Students? Fine and dandy but increasingly more complain about the decline in standards and uni's increasingly coming visa factories. Students can indeed buy property when in Australia, even guardians of young children in primary school. The rules were they were supposed to be sold prior to departure from Australia, but not aware of this ever being policed.


At least humanitarian entrants, tend to (though not always) do it tough from the start and have clear reasons while they came. Not economic (well purely) not adventure. Most don't have the option to return though I do know some that do and some that equally abuse the system.


If migrants could be used to nation build, develop new city's and not just congregate in principally the two main centres the argument would be stronger.


I still agree that the normal rate keep coming. If anything lets make it far more diverse, not from principally the same five countries, which appear to have more or less set intakes over recent years.

the troubadour

Hanson has joined the call now to cut migration. Again not an ally I would by choice run with, but the word is out and disgruntlement is high, with no political parties and few in the media wiling to call it for what it is. Hence mavericks will come out of the wood work.


I expect changes to be announced in the coming months. A least a token reduction. I just hope uglier forces don't arise.

Beoz

Hi Pauline.

There's a fundamental flaw in your argument(s). You have said in the past that skilled migrants such as 457 are responsible for stagnant wages because companies can hire them cheaper than locals. Ok lets run with that theory for a second. If that is truly the case then people have less to spend and the only thing growing house prices would be:

a) Supply and Demand. Well we know this not to be a problem as homelessness is not rife, so they are living somewhere, renting or buying. In the buying case then someone must be consuming many dwellings. We know this has been true in the case of the investor
b) Cheaper Lending. Well we know that is true given the decline of interest rates but we also know that APRA has recently made it a lot more difficult for investors to invest.

Then above you say their salaries are above the average (contradicts with your former complaint about migrants creating stagnant wages). OK lets say that is the case for a second, then wages would be rising correct? Migrants would be pulling up the average salary correct?

As construction has well and truly kept up with demand it all comes down to the investor in the market. This is where the negative gearing policy could be altered. Shorten's version is dumb and simple to appeal to the dumb person out there. What would work better is your first property receives full benefits then its scaled back on your second, third, and fourth investment property, giving more people the chance to own, and minimising the cost to the taxpayer, at the same time preventing crash which is no good for anyone.

As this has become a discussion about your inability to buy in the area you want and you are trying to portion the blame in any direction but your own (migrants, banks, governments) here's a tip from Gladys.

“My first place was a tiny unit, and for most people who want to live closer to the CBD, that may be their first option,” she told reporters on Sunday.

“Some people prefer a freestanding home with four bedrooms, which you can get in Oran Park [south-west Sydney]. Others have benefited from the concession by investing in their first unit in the city.”

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/stat...affordability/

The age of entitlement is over. In fact, for housing it was never there. As long as I can remember people bought where they could afford and more often than not, this was not in their first choice place.

the troubadour

I'm afraid not only Pauline has said as much, but a lot of the country as well. At least those that take an interest enough in the well being, not purely self motivated due to fear of a housing collapse or at least a down turn.
Homelessness is rather ripe even in Perth it is far more visible than a few years back. Of course the management of the homeless is something of an industry in itself, while funding is available anyway.
Australia is way behind in infrastructure. Affordable housing is an issue in all our cities. Of course record breaking migration impacts on affordability. Both in viable houses and available jobs.
The age of entitlement is not over. Just reversed. Now for big business and wealthy not those most vulnerable.

Beoz

You dodged my serious questions above. Too hard basket when broken down?

the troubadour

You don't have any serious questions. Being unable to answer why record immigration when back to Post 1, Employment Australia and international job agency have clearly stated that there is not a shortage of workers in Australia.


The importation of ever more workers as ScoMo admits(among the lies of most he utters) is to keep budget afloat being worth over b$5 billion regardless of the cost that the states must bare. As well as keeping government backers like business and real estate on side. The falling life quality there for all observers to witness, a truly incompetent batch of politicians from all sides

Beoz

Already answered. Just because the answer didn't agree with you doesn't mean its not answered.

Deflecting again. ScoMo this time. So back to the unanswered.

So which is it then. Do skilled migrants drag up the average salary or drag it down? If down then how does that effect your beloved property price? You seem confused.

the troubadour

Your question being does near record migration drag the average salary down. It at best stagnates it. Prices are on the way down. But nowhere yet by the amount they should be. But amazing what a few twigs here and there can put a lid on dodgy dealings by banks and brokers. Less foreign laundered money coming from abroad assists as does alleged crackdowns in China of money leaving that country.


Australians though in too big numbers tend to by nature be far too confident over property and too many will mortgage their existence away to get in the game, regardless of the senselessness of it.