Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Some food for thought on property price changes over the years:
Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004 Perth from $48,200 to $267,000 = 454% = 8.10% average per year Brisbane from $55,100 to $309,000 = 461% = 8.15% average per year Sydney from $82,600 to $471,500 = 471% = 8.24% average per year Canberra from $59,000 to $350,000 = 493% = 8.43% average per year Adelaide from $45,500 to $270,000 = 493% = 8.43% average per year Melbourne from $50,500 to $382,000 = 656% = 9.63% average per year 2004 values from http://www.loan.echoice.com.au/pages...ng_market.html 1982 values from http://www.reiaustralia.com.au If Brisbane was to catch up with Melbournes average growth over the last 22 years, the median price here should be (statistically speaking :) ) $416,000 :scared: |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Some food for thought on property price changes over the years:
Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004 Perth from $48,200 to $267,000 = 454% = 8.10% average per year Brisbane from $55,100 to $309,000 = 461% = 8.15% average per year Sydney from $82,600 to $471,500 = 471% = 8.24% average per year Canberra from $59,000 to $350,000 = 493% = 8.43% average per year Adelaide from $45,500 to $270,000 = 493% = 8.43% average per year Melbourne from $50,500 to $382,000 = 656% = 9.63% average per year 2004 values from http://www.loan.echoice.com.au/pages...ng_market.html 1982 values from http://www.reiaustralia.com.au If Brisbane was to catch up with Melbournes average growth over the last 22 years, the median price here should be (statistically speaking :) ) $416,000 :scared: |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by Megalania
So how many hours would a house buyer work if a house buyer would buy a house? In after tax, after neccessities hours? 1982 & 2004?
1984 - 9,562 hours 2004 - 11,856 hours Based on average wage being earned over a 48 hour week in 1984 and a 38 hour week in 2004 :) other variables will render these figures absolutely useless :D |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Some food for thought on property price changes over the years
Adelaide from $45,500 to $270,000 = 493% = 8.43% average per year Adelaide from $45,500 to $243,000 = 434% = 7.56% average per year A further 10% fall the year after gets us: Adelaide from $45,500 to $219,000 = 381% = 6.77% average per year I'd also argue that $270k average house price in a place where the average wage is under $45k is an unsustainable income to house price ratio. IMHO we are about to see just how unustainable it is. |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by sackofspuds
Yes, these averages are interesting, but I'd argue that 2004 was about the peak. If JP Morgan are correct and there'll be a 10% fall in 2005 then next year we have:
Adelaide from $45,500 to $243,000 = 434% = 7.56% average per year A further 10% fall the year after gets us: Adelaide from $45,500 to $219,000 = 381% = 6.77% average per year I'd also argue that $270k average house price in a place where the average wage is under $45k is an unsustainable income to house price ratio. IMHO we are about to see just how unustainable it is. If not why Australia specifically ? House prices in Central/inner Melbourne, seem to be still rising, if the Auction Mortgage results are any guide. |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by sackofspuds
Yes, these averages are interesting, but I'd argue that 2004 was about the peak. If JP Morgan are correct and there'll be a 10% fall in 2005 then next year we have:
Adelaide from $45,500 to $243,000 = 434% = 7.56% average per year A further 10% fall the year after gets us: Adelaide from $45,500 to $219,000 = 381% = 6.77% average per year I'd also argue that $270k average house price in a place where the average wage is under $45k is an unsustainable income to house price ratio. IMHO we are about to see just how unustainable it is. |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
This would happen over the whole of Western linked world surely ?
If not why Australia specifically ? House prices in Central/inner Melbourne, seem to be still rising, if the Auction Mortgage results are any guide. As for prices still rising, I think you have to be careful. When sales volumes drop substantially then initially, IMHO, it tends to be only the better properties that sell. The question then is what happens to the stuff that sticks? Either it gets taken off the market or, eventually, the price drops to reflect the changed conditions. |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by Megalania
Might be 2 x $45k average wages sustaining 1 x mortgage on $270k average house.
When my dad bought a house for £6,000 the family income was £2,000, so the house was 3 times income. Your example has a household income of $90,000 and the house of $270,000, exactly the same income multiplier :) But quite a few years difference :D |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by Megalania
Might be 2 x $45k average wages sustaining 1 x mortgage on $270k average house.
|
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Interesting you should mention that, makes me think back a bit, and do a quick comparison calculation.
When my dad bought a house for £6,000 the family income was £2,000, so the house was 3 times income. Your example has a household income of $90,000 and the house of $270,000, exactly the same income multiplier :) But quite a few years difference :D Regarding the unsustainability of house prices to incomes ratios I would beg to differ. We will only know with 20/20 hindsight but I would expect similar average 8 or 9% p.a. growth in median house prices over the next decade. There might be blips along the way but watch this space in 10 years time. The other thing to bear in mind is that many things apart from houses are coming down in real terms, even actual prices. How much more affordable are food, electrical goods, cars, furniture, holidays etc, etc now compared to 20 years ago (leaving a higher % of real income available for mortgages). The level of (and attitudes to) credit and lending is also very much different now. We'll see anyway!! The doom predicted last year for the Melbourne market didn't fully eventuate (where there is an oversupply such as in Docklands it did) and all recent reports suggest prices are going to start rising again and soon. OzTennis :) |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Interesting you should mention that, makes me think back a bit, and do a quick comparison calculation.
When my dad bought a house for £6,000 the family income was £2,000, so the house was 3 times income. Your example has a household income of $90,000 and the house of $270,000, exactly the same income multiplier :) But quite a few years difference :D |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by sackofspuds
Yes, absolutely. The thing is, multiples like this have been unustainable in the past and I don't think we're in a new paradigm.
But I suppose 30+ years ago, the point is that one income was enough. Badge |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by Badge
But I suppose 30+ years ago, the point is that one income was enough.
Badge |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Not only was it enough, but it was the norm. Just as today, two incomes seem to be the norm. :)
In other words, increased women's participation has had a one off, generational effect of raising house prices? |
Re: Australian Median Property Prices from 1982 to 2004
Originally Posted by Megalania
So now two incomes is the norm and women's participation in the work force is approaching that of men, only increases in the general participation rate in the workforce (+productivity etc) will increase general household real incomes - rate of capital appreciation of houses will taper back to the rate of increase in participation + productivity?
In other words, increased women's participation has had a one off, generational effect of raising house prices? (that thought must be just as scary to us, as two income households would have been once upon a time, to some people) |
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