Sunlover

See the attached link regarding increases in world housing prices.

http://www.researchworldwide.com/Ind...ediaID=1275349

Interesting bit about Australian prices:

Australia, with 18,9% growth in home prices for the latest recorded twelve month period, is in second place. Australian house prices have risen 85% in the past six years. However, according to London-based publication – The Economist – Australian house prices are expected to drop significantly in 2004. CPM Research, an Australian-based company, expect house prices in Sydney to drop between 5% - 10% in 2004

tinaj

It is rather a broad sweeping statement to say prices willl drop here ( Sun Coast)! There is no sign of the falling around here, things are pretty stable at the moment and are being forecast to go up slightly this summer again.

bondipom

Any movements will happen in November when the RBA meets for the first time after the election. I doubt Latham will have announced his policies by then even if he gained power.

bondipom

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/...939071697.html

Record slump in house prices

By John Garnaut and Lisa Pryor
September 3, 2004


Sydney house prices registered the biggest fall in the history of official data collection in the three months to June.

Established house prices fell 5.4 per cent - more than in any other city.

The figures from the Bureau of Statistics bring to a close an eight-year housing boom in which Sydney prices rose 131 per cent since March 1996 - when John Howard was elected Prime Minister.

Tracey McNaughton, an economist with BT Financial Group, said prices were still "frothy" and could fall 5 or 10 per cent still.

...........................................

he NSW Government also drew fire over the Sydney price slump. At the beginning of the quarter, the State Government introduced a 2.25 per cent stamp duty on the sale of investment properties and made all investment properties subject to land tax.

The Property Council's spokesman, Ken Morrison, said the rationale for the exit stamp duty was flawed.

"I think if we're in a market which is slowing and the vendor duty is not the revenue golden pudding that they hope it's going to be, then they'd be better off abandoning it."

A spokesman for the NSW Treasurer, Michael Egan, said the Government had made it easier for young families to get into their own home by offering stamp duty exemptions to first home buyers.

He also noted contradictory figures from the Real Estate Institute of Australia, which showed steady prices.

ABCDiamond

Just read a News Article that starts of with:
HOUSE prices have fallen nationally for the first time in almost four years as the collapse of the housing market bubble gains pace.

Average prices in capital cities fell 1.2 per cent in the three months to June, with the worst performances in Sydney, down 5.4 per cent, and Canberra, which fell 3.3 per cent.
and ends with
Despite Brisbane's 28.5 per cent rise for the year, it had only a modest 1.5 per cent increase during the June quarter, only slightly bettering Melbourne's 1 per cent. Melbourne's annual house price rise of 5.5 per cent is a far cry from late 2001, when it was around 30 per cent.

Despite June-quarter house price rises in all cities except Sydney and Canberra, the ABS index average for all eight capitals fell 1.2 per cent for the quarter, but is still up 10.9 per cent on an annualised basis.

The first bit seems to say that all the Capital Cities dropped in price, in the last quarter, but the last bit says that all but Sydney and Canberra went up, and that all of them are still higher than they were a year ago.

It's just as confusing as Lathams guarantee that mortgage interest rates wouldn't rise under his Government, and his own Treasurers comment that they couldn't guarantee it, and of course the RBA saying they are independant to government and will do what they think is best !

bondipom

Consistent data is impossible to come by because each state collates the info in a different manner. There are 2 recent reports which have been contradictory on the state of Sydney. One report (by an institute linked to real estate agents) indicated Sydney was stable yet another report stated Sydney had fallen.

A recent committee reported that the current state of house price data was confusing for good market info and to policy makers deciding interest rates etc.

ABCDiamond

My wife just got home from work and said she heard a report that said Sydney prices were climbing again !!

cresta57

Talking to one of the real estate guys in Tin Can Bay today and he's seen a steady drop off in land prices [actual selling prices] over the last couple of months. The usual 1000sq blocks were fetching up to 100k in April/May this year they are actually selling now for 70/80k. He seems to think it's tailing off and is telling anyone who will listen. My own take is that the prime blocks have sold for top dollar and the dross that's left won't make the same prices. Hope I'm wrong but looking at the locations left and the new land releases that are about to be opened up, they aren't as good.

tinaj

Same seems to be happening around here. The dross that is left is still overpriced and is not shifting, but if you want A1 land eg a deep water front block at pelican Waters you can fight to get one for a spare $800k They have just released some beaut sites at Dicky beach 450m for 700k and they are selling like hot cakes too!

bondipom

For more confusion

http://smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/0...939143440.html

Friday's headlines were pretty clear about it: "House prices decline sharply" and "Bubble deflating as house prices fall for the first time in four years".

Those stories were based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics house price indices for the June quarter. Unfortunately for the mental stability of those who watch these things, two days earlier the Real Estate Institute of Australia had reported something entirely different.

In places where the ABS says prices went up in June quarter, the REIA said they went down. And where the ABS said they had fallen, the REIA said they had gone up.

So on Thursday the ABS reported that house prices in Sydney had slumped 5.4 per cent in the June quarter; on Tuesday the REIA had reported that Sydney prices were steady. The ABS said Melbourne prices had gone up 1 per cent; the REIA said they were down 2.7 per cent. The ABS said Perth prices had gone up 2.1 per cent; the REIA said they were down 1 per cent.

fimart

Oh please don't tell me Dicky beach is now surrounded by new houses. Dicky beach was one of the best beaches when I was a kid. Does it still have that swimming pond by the beach?
Fi

tinaj

Nope there is no swimming pond there now. The ship is still there and there is the lake inlet a bit further up near Moffat Beach. Dicky still has a caravan park and the land released is opposite that (a bit further up the street).

Quinkana

I can understand the REIA not knowing the meaning of the statistical term standard deviation, but there is NO excuse for the Australian Bureau of Statistics not to publish the Standard Error of their estimate.

I suggest it is probably +/- 2% quarterly for Sydney / Melbourne and +/- 4% for other cities.

fimart

Ah well at least the ship is still there

hevs

Thats with the presumtion that he'll even know what they are by then