Budawang

I just heard someone from Morgan Stanley say they expect the AUD to hit USD 1.1 later this year. The commodities boom is being underpinned by some long-term factors, namely the transfer of global demand from the West to the Newly Industrialised Countires - China, India etc. The US has lost its place as the engine of world economic growth. Looks like Australia's economic party won't be over for a while.

NikiL

I had a chat with a guy from Hifx the other day about forward rates, and they're expecting the Aus$ to strengthen further. With the various economies where they are, its almost inevitable

brendarover

When the party ends in the US, i am afraid it is time to find a chair quick, because otherwise, you will not be allowed to carry on playing the game?

Budawang

I'm afraid the party is over big time for the US. This is a home grown US problem which has global implications that will, ultimately, hurt the US economy most. Their reputation for financial market management has been shot to pieces. If I was a US citizen, I would be very upset with my government on this and many other issues. When you compare the international standing of the US at the beginning of the GW Bush presidency and where it is now it's amazing how far they have fallen. From the world's biggest economy to the second biggest (after the Euro zone), from the engine of world growth to its biggest liability, from defender of human rights to official sponsor of torture. The list goes on.

It saddens me to see this as I'm not anti-American. America is a great country that has given much that is good to the world, although the Neo-con movement certainly isn't one of them. We had our own little Neo-con who, thankfully, has been turfed out of office.

brendarover

The US will Wag the dog, who is the dog, the UK, Oz, who?

What worries me is that the US will not fall alone, the US is the tail, and it will take us all down to a pre 9/11 level i am fraid, the economic future was written well before we had the insight to question it?

renth

Thank God. Half the members of this forum wanted him to stay though.

renth

Glad I moved my superannuation to 100% cash a few weeks ago.

My pal, nearing retirement has lost over $80,000 of super value in the last few months. He needn't have bothered working the last 2 years, he's gutted.

renth

Aus will see a recession but the UK and US will have 1930's style "great depression" IMO.

brendarover

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...eu8&refer=home

Its getting messy now, real messy, god help us all, this is not funny!

renth

I'll be OK, I have a fishing rod and some veggie seeds.

brendarover

Sorry my friend, this is a Global thing, if the UK and the USA has a depression which is on the cards. Oz well is not well placed, there is no way Oz will escape this, i am just glad i have nothing to lose, i am glad i am poor, this will and is going to get a real messy dinner!


The mortgages have been issued against cloud cookoo land valuation of property!

The mortgages have already been issued at or beyond the maximum point of affordability, why, because people assumed wage inflation 1997 between 2022 would be similar to wage inflation 1972 between 1997.


Just about everyone has been fleeced because they assumed that their houses would always be convertible to something similar to their valuation - or, in many cases, much more.


Work for nowt, work for the rich, work for the banks, a disgrace!

ex_exile

A certain amount of decoupling has been going on for a while, the coming US depression dose not have to stop the whole world ecomomy. The crash is here BTW, with Bear Sterns being sold of for $2 per share (closed on friday at $21) no US bank can be said to have real worth so why hold the stock?

Bjork opens her mouth and causes a riot,

FREE TIBET!

Budawang

My point was about the decoupling between the US and the rest of the world. Decoupling is code for relative US economic decline. It's only true up to a point, but it should be very troubling for US interests around the world. The US still totally dominates militarily but this will become increasingly unsustainable in coming years.

The one positive for the US is that no one really wants to step in and take its place as the global military super power, certainly not the EU or Japan. China probably does want to eventually, but they have a long way to go and are facing huge domestic problems.

What does this mean for Australia? In the short-term, Labor should make policy reforms to boost our savings rate. I hope Labor will introduce tax-free savings accounts in its next budget, like Canada just did. Canadians can now invest up to $5,000 without paying any capital gains tax. This would be a much better tax reform than simply slashing income tax which would further fuel inflation.

brendarover

Savings rates will and have to increase, in all westernised economies, debt has become a serial monster, the problem is, who owns the debt, and can it be serviced, that is the funny bit?

I guess, here. i do not care, why, because if you were one of the greedy buggers, it serve's you right, if you were one of the prudent one's, sit back, you will suffer, but not to the extent of the one's who thought they would get rich quick on the back of the one's who just wanted to be a normal happy family?

Budawang

The real villains in this are the financial institutions like Bear Stearns that lent other people's money to mortgage brokers who, in turn, lent the money to poor, uneducated Americans who they knew full well would default on their loans. In fact, the loans were specifically designed so they would default and then the mortage brokers would step in and sell off the homes. The moral depravity of these financial institutions (not just American ones) is staggering. They deserve far worse than being bailed out by the US taxpayer.