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Australia in recession?

Australia in recession?

Old Nov 6th 2009, 7:28 pm
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Default Australia in recession?

Have a read of this. Makes sense to me.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/look-...1106-i24a.html
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Old Nov 6th 2009, 8:20 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by swigski
Have a read of this. Makes sense to me.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/look-...1106-i24a.html
Shhh will you! we are trying to beat the global economic slowdown by making uber positive statements about the economy, while praying China keeps buying resources we dig out of the ground.

Also, we are trying to ignore the fact that the Aussie dollar is making exports increasingly expensive. We will also continue to make statements about the unemployment rate being low, despite the fact that there has been a steady increase from full time jobs to casual parttime work.

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Old Nov 6th 2009, 9:37 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by swigski
Have a read of this. Makes sense to me.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/look-...1106-i24a.html
The unemployment rate in America has just risen to 10% , its only 5% in OZ and house prices are still rising.
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Old Nov 6th 2009, 9:44 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Something a bit off topic, l was wondering does OZ give NZ free money or aid money to prop up its economy or is NZ totally economically independant, it seems they don't have many natural resources apart from agriculture and not much industry or manufacturing.
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Old Nov 6th 2009, 10:00 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by mohogony
Something a bit off topic, l was wondering does OZ give NZ free money or aid money to prop up its economy or is NZ totally economically independant, it seems they don't have many natural resources apart from agriculture and not much industry or manufacturing.
Natural Gas
Thermal
Hydro power
Milford Sound?
Queenstown?
Rotorua?
Human resource (mainly based in Oz, UK, USA etc)

No nuclear though
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Old Nov 6th 2009, 10:05 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by mohogony
Something a bit off topic, l was wondering does OZ give NZ free money or aid money to prop up its economy or is NZ totally economically independant, it seems they don't have many natural resources apart from agriculture and not much industry or manufacturing.
http://www.mfat.govt.nz/Foreign-Rela...rade-stats.php

NZ sell gold, cheese and manufactured goods to Aus. Aus sells cars, medicines and processed materials to NZ.
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Old Nov 6th 2009, 11:08 pm
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Extending that article to other periods, it means that we also had recessions in:
Mar-1984
Mar-1991
Jun-1992
Jun-1997
Sep-1997
Mar-1999
Dec-2006
Dec-2008


Looking at the unemployment aspect, where they quote:
From a low of 3.9 per cent early last year, the unemployment rate has risen to 5.7 per cent at present and is now forecast to reach a peak of 6.75 in June next year.

That doesn't qualify as a recession? Who are you, Ebenezer Scrooge?
So it is currently at 5.7% but may peak at 6.75%. Plot that figure on this graph, to see how it compares to previous figures, and NOT just the recent abnormal low figure of 3.9%. Most of the last 30 years has been above this possible peak of 6.75%.
 
Old Nov 7th 2009, 12:05 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by Lord_Farquar

Also, we are trying to ignore the fact that the Aussie dollar is making exports increasingly expensive. We will also continue to make statements about the unemployment rate being low, despite the fact that there has been a steady increase from full time jobs to casual parttime work.

Australian exports are priced in US$ so the export industries are getting less not more as the pacific peso rises
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 12:07 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by swigski
Have a read of this. Makes sense to me.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/look-...1106-i24a.html
I tend to find that with every 'expert' having their own definition of a recession it's best to stick to the recognised version - so no recession in Australia at the moment.
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 12:38 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?



We're All Doomed!
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 1:31 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by Lord_Farquar
We will also continue to make statements about the unemployment rate being low, despite the fact that there has been a steady increase from full time jobs to casual parttime work.

These are some figures that show the changes over the last 20 years, Full time jobs have stayed relatively average, but total employed and part time employed have both been rising.

Percentage of civilian population over 15 in employment, Full or Part time.
Sep-1990 to Sep-2009
The average over that 20 year period has been 59.78%, so, as at September 2009, slightly MORE (3.51%) than the average have been in Employment of one kind or another.
Percentage of civilian population over 15 employed full time
Sep-1990 to Sep-2009
The average over that 20 year period has been 43.98%, so as at September 2009, slightly FEWER (0.64%) than the average have been employed full time
Percentage of civilian population over 15 employed part time
Sep-1990 to Sep-2009
The average over that 20 year period has been 15.8%, so, as at September 2009, considerably MORE (15.05%) than the average have been working Part time.
 
Old Nov 7th 2009, 1:44 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by Amazulu
I tend to find that with every 'expert' having their own definition of a recession it's best to stick to the recognised version - so no recession in Australia at the moment.
Maybe for bums ie past is the era of such on seats
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 2:22 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by Lord_Farquar
Shhh will you! we are trying to beat the global economic slowdown by making uber positive statements about the economy, while praying China keeps buying resources we dig out of the ground.

Also, we are trying to ignore the fact that the Aussie dollar is making exports increasingly expensive. We will also continue to make statements about the unemployment rate being low, despite the fact that there has been a steady increase from full time jobs to casual parttime work.

Sounds like you be very happy if Australia would enter a recession?!
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 2:25 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Extending that article to other periods, it means that we also had recessions in:
Mar-1984
Mar-1991
Jun-1992
Jun-1997
Sep-1997
Mar-1999
Dec-2006
Dec-2008


Looking at the unemployment aspect, where they quote:


So it is currently at 5.7% but may peak at 6.75%. Plot that figure on this graph, to see how it compares to previous figures, and NOT just the recent abnormal low figure of 3.9%. Most of the last 30 years has been above this possible peak of 6.75%.
http://www.britzinoz.com/images/empl...loyed78-09.jpg
5.7% with worst of the GFC behind us - it can only get better (of course a little worse before it gets better)....none of the 10% here in AUS for sure.
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Old Nov 7th 2009, 3:16 am
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Default Re: Australia in recession?

Originally Posted by aussietobe
Sounds like you be very happy if Australia would enter a recession?!
It was meant tongue in check.

Although, while we have done well, I don't think the economy is out of the woods just yet.
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