chris955

Thank you, I must admit I haven't done an indepth analysis but that is probably pretty close for us as well. We are mortgage free here in the UK whereas we had a small mortgage in Australia but our day to day expenses are generally less.

Zen10

True, but what is slightly unedifying is watching Swan parading about like he is some kind of wunderkind who has planned all this out. Seems to me that there wasn't much skill in waking up on a pile of resources and selling them to a booming dictatorship, and not taxing the people who did it. The only planning seems to be in allowing the sector to grow to nearly a quarter of the economy, which is going to bring a hell of a lot of pain now China is finally crashing.

commonwealth

China is finally crashing? what a joke. sounds like something you are hoping to happen.

no China is not crashing. a 7.5% growth is not a crash. and Africa has more mineral resources than Oz and I cannot see them having a quality of life anywhere near us. you're talking as if it's easy to dig the soil and picking up the gold. apparently you have no idea how geoscience works.

Zen10

You need to brush up on China. Decade-long construction boom is finished, steel companies are slashing 2012 profit projections by half, massive unsold real estate inventories building up, overall growth down 2% on 2Q 2011 and the quality and sustainability of the growth is questionable.

Geoscience is totally subordinate to geopolitics and economics, and Africa isn't a country so the comparison is absurd.

commonwealth

western australia is not a country my point is, it's not enough to have the resources - you need to find it and dig it. it's not as easy as you think.

and dont underestimate the hidden powers of the chinese, they've parked their money somewhere in london a 7.5% actual growth is hardly a 'crash landing'

commonwealth

and are you questioning the wisdom of the investors who are pouring in half a trillion dollars into australia's resource industry? that's a huge pipeline of investments that will be worthless if china disappears. obviously the skeptics will think china will disappear from the face of the earth, erasing 1/6 of the world population.

lesleys

So why is China just about to relax the one child policy?

bingobob777

Ponzi

chris955

Progress ?

Zen10

China's not going anywhere, but China has a lot of internal problems to deal with, and collapsing demand from the West (especially basketcase EU) for its products couldn't come at a worse time. I'm not predicting the end of the world, just that Australia could go into recession in the next 18 months for the reasons I say - too big a mining sector and a rapidly decelerating China.

commonwealth

i bet otherwise. there will be no recession in australia in the next 2 years.

lumpommer

If China crashes Australia will collapse quicker than shit through a goose

commonwealth

If China crashes the World will collapse quicker than shit through a goose

ozzieeagle

If the world and particuarly Europe recovers then Aus will benefit once more. Big If re Europe though.

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed re North Korea coming back into the real world. I predicted it would take less than 15 years 3 years back when the crisis was on. I reckon thats still on target.

Imagine how much infrastructure the Korean will sbuild, when the aid from China and SK starts to roll in. Then there's India.

This boom has got legs in it yet... and not just from China.

Zen10

I'm not so sure. I would rather put it like this. Australia has already seen economic slowdown, and this will continue and there could be more serious contraction. Technical recession is harder to predict, but it will come eventually.

I agree with ozzieeagle about potential in places like India and also Indonesia of course, both of which could benefit Aus a lot. So there is more out there than just China, which certainly is in a lot more trouble than it lets on to the wider world but can other places raise the level of demand currently taken by China?

I'm not so confident about EU. My understanding is that it's really looking into an economic abyss. Sicily's basketcase economy is about to accelerate Italy's decline, and now we're back into the game of dominoes - Greece knocks over Italy, knocks of Spain, etc. Germany can't prop all this mess up. Roubini is even predicting that the UK is going to leave the EU within three years!!