fish.01

The Brisbane City Council average out the last 3 valuations I think.

mpgrewal

True. It seems Melbourne prices will never drop because there tens of thousands of potential home buyers/investors waiting for a slight signal of drop. Also, the sellers have the auction weapon at their hands which they can use to set buyers into a dog-fight and to ensure their house sells at the 'top price'.

Average 'days on market' for a melbourne house is just 39 days. That explains that Melbourne's market is a sellers market as it always was Clearance rates have dropped a bit but that always happens during this part of the year.

freebo

They will one day, no-one knows wxactly when and it could be years when but they will at some point and given the length of the rise, the fall is likely to be big too.

Thing is when prices are falling no-one wants to buy for the same reason people are desparate to buy when they're rising, its the herd mentality or the famous "fear and greed" which drives most if not all markets.

pomtastic

Clearance rates have dropped and recently Melbourne has had record amount of properties up for auction - why is that do you reckon? Where's the shortage and why are a record amount of people selling if prices always go up? I'll tell ya what I reckon, smart money is trying to get out and the fact that Australia has the most overpriced property in the world, people are taking their profits.

Investors aren't making money on rental yeilds of 3-4% (less costs) and borrowing at 7.5% You need cap gains every year to make it work.

ABCDiamond

The very recent Melbourne rises have gone against the trend, when compared against a wage figure of 3 x 2 Full time incomes (not that I am saying all buyers are in this category)

Prices did drop between Dec 2007 ($412,000) and Mar 2009 ($375,000) a 9% drop in 15 months. But the recent activity has seen a faster rise than normal.

But is this just a rise in the higher end property, with fewer lower valued properties being sold, causing a median spike, or is it an across the board price rise on all price sectors ?

pomtastic

Since when has 2 wages x 3 become the norm, I know some spruikers have been claiming 1 1/2 wages is the norm now you need 2 full time earnings to make it look affordable - come on!

What if you're single or want to start a family and bring the kids up, basically you're out of the game and won't be able to afford a mortgage.

I couldn't think of anything worse than having kids and putting them into full time day care just to afford a house. Their first few years are precious and important, they need their mothers. I can understand a couple of days a week but full time - that's a very sad state of affairs unless it is a single Mum who has no other choice then so be it - but just to get on 'the housing ladder', bloody sad. As a society we're going backwards.

ABCDiamond

No idea, not me, and to make sure that no one thought I was saying it was, I even said "not that I am saying all buyers are in this category)"

Using that figure just gave a good base line for the graph, for an indication of how it changes.

Whether it is affordable or not is another question, and comes down to a persons actual income. However, many Melbourne house buyers actually earn double the national average anyway.

This graph just shows how prices have moved in relation to incomes.

pomtastic

Where did you get this fact from? You could say that about any market anywhere in the world - doesn't mean a thing. Are you saying Melbournites earn far more than anywhere else in Aus and you actually need to be earning double the average to get on the housing ladder? Do these double earning Melbournites buy at the bottom end of top end of the housing market? So, if you're single you need to be on double wage, if you are an average earner, then tough luck! If you are below average then a life of sofa surfing or waiting for your parents to die to afford a house.

ABCDiamond

1: From many people on this forum saying what their incomes are.
A poll in Jan 2004 showed the wages of BE members as:
53.8% earned above the average wage
22.6% earned over double the average wage
And remember, only 30% of households actually buy a property, presumably these who earn more than the others ?

2: What I am saying is that many people in Melbourne, and other cities, earn more than the national average wage.

3: No one needs to earn double the national wage to get on the housing ladder, as long as they are prepared to start with a lower value house, and not jump straight into an expensive one.

man_called_Horse

I think you are spot on there, you cut the cloth to suit.

I still think that there are a lot of wishful thinkers on here, recently arrived and have promised the kids a big house with swimming pool if they all move to Australia.. after slump in UK and poor exchange rate ...the high price of housing is killing the dream.

Really even if there is a slump in house prices its probably only going be at most about 10% ... on a modest $600K house its really only $60K drop... hardly a dream maker when everyone is in the same boat.

ABCDiamond

That's what I have got, but then, it took me from 1986 to 2002 to reach that point...

My first place in Australia was a 2 bed flat in Parramatta. (Similar properties are currently $285k).
Then, in 1991, I paid $106,000 for a 3 bed house in Erskine Park (Almost identical house on same street currently expected to sell for $360,000 = average growth of 6.65% per year for nearly 20 years)
I then gradually worked upwards.

hevs

Yep...and have had no probs yet

hevs

I think thats the point that a lot of peoplke miss. Just because you want to live the dream, doesn't always mean that you will straight away. It has taken us 7 years here in Aus to get where we are, we started in a 70's house that needed totally gutting (by yours truely!) People get frustrated when they cant get the dream home straight away but it can be done and its all been done before. The only way my hubby could afford his first house was to buy it with his uncle and they shared it....its just about cutting your cloth I suppose.

lapin_windstar

It's completely pointless to try and judge the real state of anything by the online comments of the assorted ill-informed bigots, blowhards, idiots and pillocks that inhabit forums (including me!).

pomtastic

Bubble bursts fears rise.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bubbl...714-10b6n.html

and ....

Australian housing a lone survivor on a depressed world stage.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/prope...714-10b3z.html