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Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Old Aug 23rd 2013, 1:03 pm
  #76  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by alipally View Post
$1.74 today!

Don't know if its ever going to get to $2.00.... But the drop in AU$ value has been very quick indeed...... Does anyone expect further drops before the election.... And the. What do you think will happen afterwards?
apparently Abbott wants the AUD to fall further.
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Old Aug 23rd 2013, 1:47 pm
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by alipally View Post
$1.74 today!

Don't know if its ever going to get to $2.00.... But the drop in AU$ value has been very quick indeed...... Does anyone expect further drops before the election.... And the. What do you think will happen afterwards?
When it was heading south, around $1.40ish the forum financial experts were telling us it wouldnt go back to anywhere near $2.00 and would quite possibly reach parity but definitely drop more to $1.10-1.20. Im pleased to say that I forecast it would head back up, $2.00 is by no means impossible especially with more bad economic news from Australia. If the Mad Monk gets in who knows.
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Old Sep 11th 2013, 4:59 pm
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

It seems as though the E/R has settled around $1.70 for a while after better news from both UK on growth and unemployment rates and from Australia on less likelihood of further interest rate cuts, better news from China, change to a more conservative government etc have all been factored in. It was around $1.72/$1.73 for a week or so but has dipped below that and settled. Analysis is:

"Strong data from the North and South Pacific have buoyed the Aussie and helped reduce the odds of a Reserve Bank rate cut by year-end. Investors now see about a 30% chance of an Australian rate cut before Christmas, down markedly from a sure bet weeks earlier. Optimism among local consumers brightened to 4.7% in September which was up from 3.5% in August. Positive recovery signals in China have compounded the Aussie’s bullish bias. A local report Thursday is forecast to show hiring increased by 10,000 in August. How the jobs report fares should help dictate the next leg for the Aussie."

"GBP

Strong jobs data from Britain sent the pound soaring to its highest in at least seven months against the dollar and euro, and to its loftiest in four years against the yen. The early rate hike narrative gained strength after unemployment fell to 7.7% in the three months to July from 7.8%. That was a step toward the Bank of England’s 7% threshold for giving serious consideration to a rate hike. The latest drop in unemployment marked the lowest level since September–November 2012. Other gauges of joblessness also beat expectations, with the monthly unemployment claim count shrinking by 32,600 in August, more than 10,000 fewer than expected. Sterling has also ridden the rally of market optimism that has been fueled by steady signs of stabilization in China and constructive developments with the crisis in Syria."

I'd be very interested to see where anyone expected the rate to go to $1.10/$1.20, most everyone knew $1.40's was the bottom as far as sterling went and it couldn't go lower. I certainly factored in a bounce and moved some $'s as soon after it as I could after it got to that trough. $2? Maybe, but how far into the future? If I was a betting man I'd go for no further north than $1.70/$1.80 for a while.
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Old Sep 11th 2013, 6:50 pm
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

*prays for $1.40 to come back!*
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Old Sep 12th 2013, 1:42 am
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by Tramps_mate View Post
*prays for $1.40 to come back!*
While we're on the subject of soothsaying, what does this chart of Dow Jones activity suggest to anybody:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-...storical-chart


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Old Sep 12th 2013, 2:41 am
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
While we're on the subject of soothsaying, what does this chart of Dow Jones activity suggest to anybody:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-...storical-chart

S
New paradigm!
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Old Sep 12th 2013, 2:47 am
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by bcworld View Post
New paradigm!

I need to learn how to short stuff!


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Old Oct 1st 2013, 8:13 am
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

The GBP/AUD reached $1.74 and has dropped back to just below $1.73 in the last hour.

USD/AUD has changed over a cent in the last couple of hours. Shutting down the government ..... maybe?
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Old Oct 1st 2013, 8:51 am
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
The GBP/AUD reached $1.74 and has dropped back to just below $1.73 in the last hour.

USD/AUD has changed over a cent in the last couple of hours. Shutting down the government ..... maybe?
The interest rate 'no change' and events in US Congress have more recently moved it to $1.72's. For analysis:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...t_Outlook.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...utdown-concern
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Old Oct 1st 2013, 11:01 am
  #85  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by Swerv-o View Post
I need to learn how to short stuff!


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