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Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Old Jun 13th 2013, 9:45 am
  #16  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

"The closely-watched British jobs figure saw the Pound well supported in the global currency markets, sending the Pound to euro exchange rate (currency : GBP EUR) up to as high as 1.1805 earlier. However, Sterling struggled to assert itself against the high-yielders as world share markets traded into positive territory following yesterday’s poor showing. The ‘risk on’ trading environment saw the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate drop back into the 1.6300s, while the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (currency : GBP NZD) also pulled back from yesterday’s near-term highs to briefly change hands in the 1.9400s."
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Old Jun 13th 2013, 10:43 am
  #17  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by OzTennis View Post
"The closely-watched British jobs figure saw the Pound well supported in the global currency markets, sending the Pound to euro exchange rate (currency : GBP EUR) up to as high as 1.1805 earlier. However, Sterling struggled to assert itself against the high-yielders as world share markets traded into positive territory following yesterday’s poor showing. The ‘risk on’ trading environment saw the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate drop back into the 1.6300s, while the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate (currency : GBP NZD) also pulled back from yesterday’s near-term highs to briefly change hands in the 1.9400s."
Or otherwise known as a financial journalist adds nothing of value, whilst just reporting what has already happened yesterday.

What I have noticed is that the £:A$ rate rises in the morning Australia time, then falls back when London/Europe wakes up. To me that suggests that Australian traders think that Australia is going to suffer (because they see the economy weakening) and are selling as a result; but the EU traders think roughly the same about the EU and sell in their turn. Only the US traders seem to have a positive outlook.

As such, the AU and EU traders are probably going to be right, and things are going to generally turn downwards for the global economies - its just a matter of when they all get around to singing from the same hymn sheet.
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Old Jun 13th 2013, 12:33 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Or otherwise known as a financial journalist adds nothing of value, whilst just reporting what has already happened yesterday.

What I have noticed is that the £:A$ rate rises in the morning Australia time, then falls back when London/Europe wakes up. To me that suggests that Australian traders think that Australia is going to suffer (because they see the economy weakening) and are selling as a result; but the EU traders think roughly the same about the EU and sell in their turn. Only the US traders seem to have a positive outlook.

As such, the AU and EU traders are probably going to be right, and things are going to generally turn downwards for the global economies - its just a matter of when they all get around to singing from the same hymn sheet.
Tonight au this morning uk the aussie was on a roll and bucking thay trend.
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Old Jun 13th 2013, 12:51 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Or otherwise known as a financial journalist adds nothing of value, whilst just reporting what has already happened yesterday.

What I have noticed is that the £:A$ rate rises in the morning Australia time, then falls back when London/Europe wakes up. To me that suggests that Australian traders think that Australia is going to suffer (because they see the economy weakening) and are selling as a result; but the EU traders think roughly the same about the EU and sell in their turn. Only the US traders seem to have a positive outlook.

As such, the AU and EU traders are probably going to be right, and things are going to generally turn downwards for the global economies - its just a matter of when they all get around to singing from the same hymn sheet.
Nah. if you think traders are economically minded, meh!

their goal is to make profits in their trades! i call FX the Tabloid of Financial Markets.
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Old Jun 14th 2013, 9:16 am
  #20  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Or otherwise known as a financial journalist adds nothing of value, whilst just reporting what has already happened yesterday.

What I have noticed is that the £:A$ rate rises in the morning Australia time, then falls back when London/Europe wakes up. To me that suggests that Australian traders think that Australia is going to suffer (because they see the economy weakening) and are selling as a result; but the EU traders think roughly the same about the EU and sell in their turn. Only the US traders seem to have a positive outlook.

As such, the AU and EU traders are probably going to be right, and things are going to generally turn downwards for the global economies - its just a matter of when they all get around to singing from the same hymn sheet.
Some markets are open while some markets are closed (time differences and all that); economic news gets delivered during the night in some countries etc, etc; obviously exchange rates are going to vary during the day on the back of that.

The dollar appears to have steadied to around $1.63 but markets await the Fed announcements on 18th/19th - the expectation was that quantitative easing was going to be ditched but lately there's doubt about that. Japanese Yen and the Nikkie both having an impact on the main currencies as well.
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Old Jun 14th 2013, 9:27 am
  #21  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Originally Posted by OzTennis View Post
Some markets are open while some markets are closed (time differences and all that); economic news gets delivered during the night in some countries etc, etc; obviously exchange rates are going to vary during the day on the back of that.
Yes, but that misses what I was implying.

The perception of the traders in Australia is different from that of London/EU and again the US.

The Australians think here is going down the toilet.

No, no say the Europeans, we're worse.

Actually its fairly OK say the yanks.

The tug of war between London and Australia on what the correct level should be suggests both think the other hasn't fully costed in how badly off they are. They both think the yanks are wrong.

Anyhow, the recent move from 1.66 to 1.63 seems to be due to the yanks and the predictions for future QE there - coupled with some profit taking.
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Old Jun 14th 2013, 9:42 am
  #22  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Is the GBP fx rate directly convertible with AUD? Or you need to cross-fx with USD first?
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Old Jun 14th 2013, 9:44 am
  #23  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

I think it's a direct exchange rate. You do not need to cross fix with the USD.
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Old Jun 15th 2013, 10:04 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

I think its too early to say that it's stabilised at this level. It's only been about 4 days of relative calm after months of freefall. I think part of it is the psychological barrier of 60p to the $1A. In the same way that it was banging on 70p for a few weeks but couldn't break through, it may be doing the same now that is was dangerously close to 60p.

These numerical levels should have no effect on rate movement but the traders I know say it does.

I still think the pound with strengthen against the A$ over the next year, and I wouldn't rule out 50p. Another rate cut in oz and election turbulence could see a big swing.

Only time will tell I suppose.
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Old Jun 15th 2013, 10:46 pm
  #25  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

-------------WARNING-------------
To anybody thinking of taking any of these posts into consideration when deciding to transfer your life savings. DON'T
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Old Jun 16th 2013, 4:31 am
  #26  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

things to remember when considering FX:

> where are your assets and in what currency are they denominated?
> in which currency are you earning your income?
> in which currency are you spending your living expenses?
> why would you consider holding assets / liabilities denominated in another currency of your daily earnings / spending is not in that currency?
> are you a risk taker or risk averse?
> do you think you have any skills in determining the future exchange rates (do you have an accurate crystal ball)?
> what are the risk and returns of holding FX-denominated assets/liabilities? what are the interest rates, tax rates and tolerance for FX and liquidity risks?

some people think they know what the future is instead of looking at the daily basics. that's when they regret with 20/20 hindsight they actually gambled instead of using common sense.
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Old Jun 17th 2013, 9:22 am
  #27  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/...steam-for-now/
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Old Jun 19th 2013, 10:15 pm
  #28  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Thats it just gone below 60p.
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Old Jun 19th 2013, 11:23 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Now 92 US cents.

Good thing for the local economy IMO as long as inflation is tame.
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Old Jun 19th 2013, 11:34 pm
  #30  
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Default Re: Aussie Dollar continues to fall - £1 buys $1.66

Almost back to the 2010 rate.

GBP-AUD rates on this day over the last 5 years.

Jun 19, 2008 2.0719
Jun 19, 2009 2.0507
Jun 19, 2010 1.7054
Jun 19, 2011 1.5232
Jun 19, 2012 1.5520
Jun 19, 2013 1.6490
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