Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
Aug 3rd 2010, 2:24 am
#31
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
This is not true. The mining/resource sector only makes up 7% of the Australian economy, which is not a particulary large base at all (unlike the UK where the finance sector makes up 18%) A reduction in demand from China and/or India would have some effect but it would not be the catastrophe some make out.
There seems to be a need by some to run down the economic success of Australia?? Not sure why this is, but Australia has been successfully managed by those in government for quite some time (present administration excluded!)
There seems to be a need by some to run down the economic success of Australia?? Not sure why this is, but Australia has been successfully managed by those in government for quite some time (present administration excluded!)
Aug 3rd 2010, 2:28 am
#32
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
Aug 3rd 2010, 2:32 am
#33
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
I wonder if all the houses in north west brisbane are all over valued by 60%?
Maybe there will be a correction over the next 12 months. Maybe houses will drop 60%. Houses that are priced between $600k and $1.5m in 2010, might be selling for between $240k and $600k in 2011.
...or maybe not.
Maybe there will be a correction over the next 12 months. Maybe houses will drop 60%. Houses that are priced between $600k and $1.5m in 2010, might be selling for between $240k and $600k in 2011.
...or maybe not.
Aug 3rd 2010, 2:42 am
#34
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Joined: Sep 2007
Location: South Australia
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
The majority of my friends are involved in some way in the construction industry (and I'm in IT). Many are concerned about what happens after all the government stimulus money has been spent. They're currently struggling to keep up with demand and see corners being cut left, right, and center to keep projects on track - but are very much aware that demand will drop once the stimulus money has gone.
Aug 3rd 2010, 2:49 am
#35
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
If there was an 80% drop across board, few would be able to afford it as there'd be mass unemployment, and banks wouldn't issue any new loans out of fear.
The majority of my friends are involved in some way in the construction industry (and I'm in IT). Many are concerned about what happens after all the government stimulus money has been spent. They're currently struggling to keep up with demand and see corners being cut left, right, and center to keep projects on track - but are very much aware that demand will drop once the stimulus money has gone.
The majority of my friends are involved in some way in the construction industry (and I'm in IT). Many are concerned about what happens after all the government stimulus money has been spent. They're currently struggling to keep up with demand and see corners being cut left, right, and center to keep projects on track - but are very much aware that demand will drop once the stimulus money has gone.
I never make serious contributions to pointless property price threads.
Aug 3rd 2010, 3:05 am
#36
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
For prices to fall everyone simply has too get together that intends to buy a house and agree not to for about 2 years.
After about 1.5 years prices will reach fairly low levels as estate agents start to see the revenue collapse.
In 2 years prices will be nice and low and everyone can start buying...
After about 1.5 years prices will reach fairly low levels as estate agents start to see the revenue collapse.
In 2 years prices will be nice and low and everyone can start buying...
Aug 3rd 2010, 3:32 am
#37
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
Housing is the biggest weekly expense, renting or buying, unless you are currently cashed up when you come over here. I bought like you 8 years ago when housing here was a relative pittance. Could you afford to live where you live now, starting again with a small deposit of $100K or so, not unless you had an inheritance or such.
Would I come to Aus now with housing so expensive, no? A much bigger mortgage is now required to live somewhere semi decent in Aus (Perth) so you might as well get mortgaged up in UK and live in a nicer area, with family and friends not being 24 hours away.
Remember, it's a blue collar workers dream in Aus, no longer the case, you need money to start up here now if you want to not go backwards, that is, live in a bogan suburb. Unless Australia can attract the richer 'middle classes' from the UK (I doubt it) then house prices won't get pushed up any more, they've reached peak afordability IMO.
Aug 3rd 2010, 3:49 am
#38
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
But if it did happen, can you imagine the rush and panic to buy the best properties, after 2 years, it may even push prices up due to the demand
Aug 3rd 2010, 3:59 am
#39
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
probably because no one really knows what will happen. It is all pie in the sky.
Why should people move to Australia now ?
So they can be here when prices drop, and be ready to buy property cheap.
So they can buy now before prices go up again.
Either way there could be a reason, just as there are reasons to not want to move here. But with rents being so low, and many people being happy to rent, I wonder if Property prices is one real reason ?
What is peak affordability ?
With the average new mortgage commitment being about $280,000, or about 3 times the average home buyers joint income, I wonder what they can really go to, to get the better than average place that they "need".
Why should people move to Australia now ?
So they can be here when prices drop, and be ready to buy property cheap.
So they can buy now before prices go up again.
Either way there could be a reason, just as there are reasons to not want to move here. But with rents being so low, and many people being happy to rent, I wonder if Property prices is one real reason ?
With the average new mortgage commitment being about $280,000, or about 3 times the average home buyers joint income, I wonder what they can really go to, to get the better than average place that they "need".
Aug 3rd 2010, 4:02 am
#40
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
Why pointless? It could very well be the deciding factor in whether to migrate to Aus or not? I'd say it has a place on this forum.
Housing is the biggest weekly expense, renting or buying, unless you are currently cashed up when you come over here. I bought like you 8 years ago when housing here was a relative pittance. Could you afford to live where you live now, starting again with a small deposit of $100K or so, not unless you had an inheritance or such.
Would I come to Aus now with housing so expensive, no? A much bigger mortgage is now required to live somewhere semi decent in Aus (Perth) so you might as well get mortgaged up in UK and live in a nicer area, with family and friends not being 24 hours away.
Remember, it's a blue collar workers dream in Aus, no longer the case, you need money to start up here now if you want to not go backwards, that is, live in a bogan suburb. Unless Australia can attract the richer 'middle classes' from the UK (I doubt it) then house prices won't get pushed up any more, they've reached peak afordability IMO.
Housing is the biggest weekly expense, renting or buying, unless you are currently cashed up when you come over here. I bought like you 8 years ago when housing here was a relative pittance. Could you afford to live where you live now, starting again with a small deposit of $100K or so, not unless you had an inheritance or such.
Would I come to Aus now with housing so expensive, no? A much bigger mortgage is now required to live somewhere semi decent in Aus (Perth) so you might as well get mortgaged up in UK and live in a nicer area, with family and friends not being 24 hours away.
Remember, it's a blue collar workers dream in Aus, no longer the case, you need money to start up here now if you want to not go backwards, that is, live in a bogan suburb. Unless Australia can attract the richer 'middle classes' from the UK (I doubt it) then house prices won't get pushed up any more, they've reached peak afordability IMO.
Aug 3rd 2010, 4:34 am
#41
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Joined: May 2003
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Posts: 24,246
Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
Why pointless? It could very well be the deciding factor in whether to migrate to Aus or not? I'd say it has a place on this forum.
Housing is the biggest weekly expense, renting or buying, unless you are currently cashed up when you come over here. I bought like you 8 years ago when housing here was a relative pittance. Could you afford to live where you live now, starting again with a small deposit of $100K or so, not unless you had an inheritance or such.
Would I come to Aus now with housing so expensive, no? A much bigger mortgage is now required to live somewhere semi decent in Aus (Perth) so you might as well get mortgaged up in UK and live in a nicer area, with family and friends not being 24 hours away.
Remember, it's a blue collar workers dream in Aus, no longer the case, you need money to start up here now if you want to not go backwards, that is, live in a bogan suburb. Unless Australia can attract the richer 'middle classes' from the UK (I doubt it) then house prices won't get pushed up any more, they've reached peak afordability IMO.
Housing is the biggest weekly expense, renting or buying, unless you are currently cashed up when you come over here. I bought like you 8 years ago when housing here was a relative pittance. Could you afford to live where you live now, starting again with a small deposit of $100K or so, not unless you had an inheritance or such.
Would I come to Aus now with housing so expensive, no? A much bigger mortgage is now required to live somewhere semi decent in Aus (Perth) so you might as well get mortgaged up in UK and live in a nicer area, with family and friends not being 24 hours away.
Remember, it's a blue collar workers dream in Aus, no longer the case, you need money to start up here now if you want to not go backwards, that is, live in a bogan suburb. Unless Australia can attract the richer 'middle classes' from the UK (I doubt it) then house prices won't get pushed up any more, they've reached peak afordability IMO.
The 1st line of ABCD's post #39 sums it up and is all we need to know.
Aug 3rd 2010, 4:49 am
#42
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Joined: Sep 2007
Location: South Australia
Posts: 770
Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
I guess you could get a mortgage with 20% deposit in any city in the world with $100k - just different standards.
Aug 3rd 2010, 4:54 am
#43
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
The odd thing is, with the average new mortgage being $280k, and the average new house price being $500k, as some say, then the current average deposit must be about $220k.
Aug 3rd 2010, 6:08 am
#44
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist
They predict 20% rise in uk house prices over 4 years.
Aug 3rd 2010, 7:46 am
#45
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Re: Aus House Prices now 61.1% over valued: The Economist