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Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

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Old Mar 28th 2008, 6:15 am
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by MartinH
I think there are various arguments around affordability which are generally oversimplified i.e. its easy to look at the average cost of housing and compare that to average wage levels and call it an affordability crisis. Thats not to say that it isn't a problem but more that is doesn't take account of all the factors.

It ignores for example that there is a significant proportion of the population who have minimal or zero mortgages who actually benefit from interest rate rises. It also ignores the dynamics of Austrlaian population growth which has a high proportion of skilled, better off workers.

Of course it isn't as simple as that but what is?

Only 1/3 of the workforce has a mortgage. I do not have one and IR rises are good news to me.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 6:20 am
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Smile Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by renth
The only way house prices will go up 40% is if wages go up at least 40% in the same period of time.

Otherwise this article is a total crock of shit.
I always had the theory that as mortagers will lend 3x income, if wages went up by $1000, house prices could in theory go up by $3000.

Anyone care to comment/prove/disprove/tell Buzzy to stop talking crap.

Buzzy
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 6:24 am
  #18  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by MartinH
Well I think thats something to do with the fact that petrol and food are consumables and property is an asset.
Bit of a circular argument. Property is an asset partly because we believe it's an asset.

But it's also, in *real* terms, a depreciating asset: deterioration, maintenance etc which, in anything else would bring the value down year on year, are not factored in.

Food, energy water and housing are all necessities and it's only the relative shortfall of housing and land that makes it an asset, if you think about it a bit more deeply.

That's not to say that you are wrong given the mindset and facts of shortage, but I reckon Renth is correct in his comment all the same.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 6:26 am
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee
I always had the theory that as mortagers will lend 3x income, if wages went up by $1000, house prices could in theory go up by $3000.

Anyone care to comment/prove/disprove/tell Buzzy to stop talking crap.

Buzzy
I saw somewhere that some lenders are allowing EIGHT times earnings - was it here or in the USA?

*ankers used to be thought of as responsible!
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 7:32 am
  #20  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by Wol
Bit of a circular argument. Property is an asset partly because we believe it's an asset.

But it's also, in *real* terms, a depreciating asset: deterioration, maintenance etc which, in anything else would bring the value down year on year, are not factored in.

Food, energy water and housing are all necessities and it's only the relative shortfall of housing and land that makes it an asset, if you think about it a bit more deeply.

That's not to say that you are wrong given the mindset and facts of shortage, but I reckon Renth is correct in his comment all the same.
Generally speaking, it's not the building that's seen as the asset (you are correct in what you say) but the land... the land appreciates faster than the property depreciates. Thats why units and such like are the hardest hit in a downturn... no land!
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 7:36 am
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by Buzzy--Bee
I always had the theory that as mortagers will lend 3x income, if wages went up by $1000, house prices could in theory go up by $3000.

Anyone care to comment/prove/disprove/tell Buzzy to stop talking crap.

Buzzy
Doesn't work on multipliers... it's a formula based on income and liabilities (a %age of).

So, you could get 2 people with identical incomes looking to buy an identical house with an identical deposit. One can be approved and one can be turned down due to their liabilities.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 10:03 am
  #22  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by Wol
Bit of a circular argument. Property is an asset partly because we believe it's an asset.

But it's also, in *real* terms, a depreciating asset: deterioration, maintenance etc which, in anything else would bring the value down year on year, are not factored in.

Food, energy water and housing are all necessities and it's only the relative shortfall of housing and land that makes it an asset, if you think about it a bit more deeply.

That's not to say that you are wrong given the mindset and facts of shortage, but I reckon Renth is correct in his comment all the same.
Well.....thanks for that .......but I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

A depreciating asset is - by definition - one which loses value over time. Not sure if that applies to property.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 10:08 am
  #23  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by renth
Wishful thinking by whom?

Why is it when petrol and food prices go up it's bad news but when houses go up it's often presented as good news?
Good news for estate agents who see it as a pay rise.

But seriously who is plugging the article?????






Estate agents
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 10:13 am
  #24  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by MartinH
Well.....thanks for that .......but I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

A depreciating asset is - by definition - one which loses value over time. Not sure if that applies to property.
Its a liability, if you go down the track of assessing it like a business asset.

Unless of course you are utilising the thing to generate income
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 10:43 am
  #25  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by Geelong Gent
Its a liability, if you go down the track of assessing it like a business asset.

Unless of course you are utilising the thing to generate income

I think I need to exit this conversation.

I have clearly stepped into the twilight zone
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 10:51 am
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by renth
Wishful thinking by whom?

Why is it when petrol and food prices go up it's bad news but when houses go up it's often presented as good news?
greed
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 12:12 pm
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by MartinH
Well.....thanks for that .......but I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

A depreciating asset is - by definition - one which loses value over time. Not sure if that applies to property.
The house depreciates in value however the land in theory appreciates in value that's why its always better to buy a house than a unit.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 1:44 pm
  #28  
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by comet555
I just spotted this article, so thought I'd post it. Any thoughts?

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=59380

Something to think about anyway.

We're probably looking at selling our house in 2 years time so I keep wondering whether the price is likely to rise or fall. We only bought it last August so the a price fall would actually mean we lose money.
Over 5 years thats about avarage aint it
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 2:01 pm
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Wasn't it Winston Churchill who proposed a land tax in place of income tax because of the idea that appreciating land values are a disproportionate source of wealth/latent income.
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Old Mar 28th 2008, 7:45 pm
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Default Re: Arcticle - House Prices to Rise by 40%

Originally Posted by longreach
Generally speaking, it's not the building that's seen as the asset (you are correct in what you say) but the land... the land appreciates faster than the property depreciates. Thats why units and such like are the hardest hit in a downturn... no land!
I'd keep it simple and say that over the long run/even possibly a cycle, any property would generally be an asset.
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