Centurion

What did you say - peak oil was that ?

asprilla

That's a pretty big call from Centurion... I'll join in and say that we won't see 1.90 for at least another 5 years.

Centurion

<starts the book running>

Actually I was trying to be nice. A lot of people have hopes on the pound improving. But I'm with you on this one. If it sees $2 in the next 5 years I will be shocked.

Either that or Rudd gets the ETS scheme passed, sells NSW to new Zealand and gives China the land rights to all the Coal and Uranium mines.

asprilla

I think that if the Aus banking system goes kaput in the next few years, we'll be eating our words.

Or perhaps it will just fly back up to 2.20 within the next few weeks for no apparent reason and we'll look very silly....

pomtastic

Crikey, just seen the GBP has taken another tumble.

There's talk in the Broadsheets that the UK is in a worse financial state than Greece now!

Vash the Stampede

I don't think it's quite that bad, but I've heard they now have the same level of debt. Which is gobsmackingly awful, to be perfectly frank.

danjones1

Anyone thinking of eimgrating to OZ now with xxx,xxx pounds in the bank needs their head tested, especially if they plan on buying into Australia's housing bubble!

The £ is in real trouble, so glad I moved my cash out into other currencies a year ago.

pomtastic

AAAAAahhhhhhhh, another Housing bubble advocate - word's spreading for sure, and yes, the UK is in a bit of a pickle, ho hum, booms and busts.

freebo

Can't argue with that, it will take a long time to sort out the UK's fiscal problems, the only possibility I see is that many are starting to call for the China bubble to pop which will hurt the AUD badly, but if it did happen would also hit the Australian economy hard.

I've diversified a little, mainly into gold and wish I had done more, its gone up big in GBP and even beaten AUD over the last 15 months I've had it. I'll be diversifying into USD(scary too) and more of the others when my house sale proceeds come in.

I saw a headline that the RBA are may add another 1% to the base rate, that will hurt borrowers make AUD even stronger. I personally feel, that I'd rather not buy into the Australian property market at this point.

ABCDiamond

That is just about guaranteed.

Part of the RBA speech said Even with just 1% added over the year, we will still be lower than the average for some years.

Centurion

You peaked my curiosity. Why USD ?

Gold I understand and I was toying with the idea a while back and pissed with myself I didn't but the USD I don't get.

Enlighten me ?

freebo

When Lehman Bros went belly up in 2008 and started the GFC shares & commodities (including to a lesser extent Gold) plunged. About the only thing that went up where some Sov bonds and the USD, this was partly a flight to safety and partly and unwind of the carry trade (also asset liquidation). Come March 2009 the situation reversed, the money that the major govts printed & gave to the banks at zero interest went looking for a return & risk assets rallied, USD declined. Next we could well see the double dip (has anything actually been fixed???), and the USD is again rallying off its lows, its the least worst currency (DXY has gone from 72 to 80 recently, interestingly Gold seems to have decoupled and is going up too).

Basically I'm thinking of holding some USD as a hedge against the next leg down, be it caused by a bond crisis, debt default, war (Iran, Falklands, take a pick of several others) or another black swan. The reason I said scary is the USD should not be doing what its doing, they're recklessly expanding the money supply & need to sell a massive amount of debt this year to finance more "stimulus", ultimately the US dollar looks very vulnerable but short term its seen as a safe haven

DownUnderPaddy

Take the latest comment from the RBA into account also. It's not just how bad the UK economy is, but how good the long term prospects for the AUS economy are....

So, bad news for those looking to move GBP to AUD, but great news for those just looking to move I should think...

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...0218-ogv4.html

""For the next 20 years, on average, it is going to be a good 20 years for China and for us."

MrCro

only time will tell my friend, I'm just getting a job in Oz and leaving my stinking £'s in UK for now

Alfresco

Typo Alert: Sinking