1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
Dec 18th 2009, 6:44 am
#1006
Banned
Joined: May 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 564
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
Bottom line is:
The annual growth rate was only 0.5%, whereas forecasters had expected about 0.7%.
Start of recession or forecasters getting it wrong
The probability of another 0.25% rate increase in February is now only 37% compared to 80% previously.
The probability of a March rate increase just got bigger
The annual growth rate was only 0.5%, whereas forecasters had expected about 0.7%.
Start of recession or forecasters getting it wrong
The probability of another 0.25% rate increase in February is now only 37% compared to 80% previously.
The probability of a March rate increase just got bigger
Dec 18th 2009, 7:27 am
#1007
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
Dec 18th 2009, 9:58 am
#1008
Forum Regular
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 159
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
The stimulus wasn't to create growth though, it was to try to stop a reduction, while the rest of the world panicked. And it seemed to have worked just about right.
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
No country is enjoying being down and is more than likely fighting to get out of it. When they all do, and they will, they'll start consuming again. And then they'll all want some more of the world's largest sand pit, once more. At the moment it's just a couple of cash rich countries buy up sand but soon enough the rest will resume and Aus will continue to prosper, just as it always has!!
Dec 18th 2009, 10:19 am
#1009
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Joined: Nov 2009
Location: Dullsville
Posts: 672
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
The stimulus wasn't to create growth though, it was to try to stop a reduction, while the rest of the world panicked. And it seemed to have worked just about right.
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
Mr Swan says it shows the global recession is still hitting the Australian economy.
"The outcome today represents the third consecutive quarter where economic stimulus has prevented a contraction in the economy," he said.
"Had we done nothing, I would be standing here today announcing Australia's fourth quarter of negative growth.
"The outcome today represents the third consecutive quarter where economic stimulus has prevented a contraction in the economy," he said.
"Had we done nothing, I would be standing here today announcing Australia's fourth quarter of negative growth.
Dec 18th 2009, 10:21 am
#1010
Banned
Joined: May 2007
Location: Sydney
Posts: 564
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
The stimulus wasn't to create growth though, it was to try to stop a reduction, while the rest of the world panicked. And it seemed to have worked just about right.
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
The GFC is no longer as bad as it was and normality is in sight, therefore we should be able to return to pre GFC status without any stimulus needed.
Un-employment is dropping again, and retail sales are doing OK.
We shall obviously see in 2010, but if businesses have confidence, it could well be all OK.
If they believe it will be bad though, then it can be talked down, if people try hard enough to be negative ...
Not being negative though, only saying it as I see it unfolding, much as I did in the UK when I took out a tracker mortgage when everyone else, press included was talking about massive interest rate rises. I do see that the stimulus has papered over the cracks. Will the paste be strong enough to keep the paper up though??
Dec 20th 2009, 5:03 am
#1011
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 51
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
So is the pound getting better or worse?
Do we cut our losses and pull money from the UK now, or sit tight and wait for things to improve? If we do sit tight, how long is it likely to be before there is reasonable improvement?
Crystal balls out please
Not convinced about unemployment dropping, and know plenty of places are less confident now than they were this time last year.. Would rather be here though than in the UK.
Do we cut our losses and pull money from the UK now, or sit tight and wait for things to improve? If we do sit tight, how long is it likely to be before there is reasonable improvement?
Crystal balls out please
Not convinced about unemployment dropping, and know plenty of places are less confident now than they were this time last year.. Would rather be here though than in the UK.
Dec 20th 2009, 5:44 am
#1012
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Joined: Dec 2006
Location: Mt Martha, Melbourne
Posts: 1,199
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
Your guess is as good as ours!
I personally can't see the pound getting significantly stronger against the A$ until interest rates in the UK go up together with proof of a strengthening economy and possibily a change of Gov.
Reading all the forex news and blogs etc there is a feeling of currency buyers shifting back to "old" money such as the pound and US$ - there has been an improvement in the US$ in the last couple of weeks since good recovery data has been released.
As Mr Cro has been saying all along the chances are these recoveries we are seeing are only temporary and what will happen once all the stimulus packages run out. I have to say this is the first time I can remember Governments stepping in to help a country out of recession as I recall you just used to work through them and wait until the cycle corrected itself but maybe this time because the recession was caused by a crisis in the financial sector and not through the general trade cycle it's different!
Anyway, I think we are at least a year away from a decent A$/UK rate unless Oz suddenly goes belly up. Watch for spikes around good data but I've discovered the pound is at it's best around 3am Aussie time which is just after lunch in the UK so it's not easy to trade just then. We put a limit order in for 1.80 which we did get out of hours after waiting over 2 weeks for it to climb back up to 1.80 (customer rates) from a low of 1.77 - so at the moment if the pound just continues to improve by 1 cent here and there you could be waiting a long time!
Just depends on whether you need your money over sooner rather than later - depends on your plans etc. If the pound doesn't improve then if you bring your money over now then you will get a higher interest rate here but again depends on how much you are bringing over as even a 1c difference can be more than a months interest so you have to do your sums!
The last time the pound was low against the $ it took about 18 months to recover but then the circumstances were different and this was back in 95/96 and the Aussie economy was a different kettle of fish to it is now so I guess you can't really compare!
Hope this helps!
KK
I personally can't see the pound getting significantly stronger against the A$ until interest rates in the UK go up together with proof of a strengthening economy and possibily a change of Gov.
Reading all the forex news and blogs etc there is a feeling of currency buyers shifting back to "old" money such as the pound and US$ - there has been an improvement in the US$ in the last couple of weeks since good recovery data has been released.
As Mr Cro has been saying all along the chances are these recoveries we are seeing are only temporary and what will happen once all the stimulus packages run out. I have to say this is the first time I can remember Governments stepping in to help a country out of recession as I recall you just used to work through them and wait until the cycle corrected itself but maybe this time because the recession was caused by a crisis in the financial sector and not through the general trade cycle it's different!
Anyway, I think we are at least a year away from a decent A$/UK rate unless Oz suddenly goes belly up. Watch for spikes around good data but I've discovered the pound is at it's best around 3am Aussie time which is just after lunch in the UK so it's not easy to trade just then. We put a limit order in for 1.80 which we did get out of hours after waiting over 2 weeks for it to climb back up to 1.80 (customer rates) from a low of 1.77 - so at the moment if the pound just continues to improve by 1 cent here and there you could be waiting a long time!
Just depends on whether you need your money over sooner rather than later - depends on your plans etc. If the pound doesn't improve then if you bring your money over now then you will get a higher interest rate here but again depends on how much you are bringing over as even a 1c difference can be more than a months interest so you have to do your sums!
The last time the pound was low against the $ it took about 18 months to recover but then the circumstances were different and this was back in 95/96 and the Aussie economy was a different kettle of fish to it is now so I guess you can't really compare!
Hope this helps!
KK
Dec 21st 2009, 12:53 pm
#1015
Melbourne - NE suburbs
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,032
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
It may be a long time, if ever, that you see the rate go above 2:1 again I feel.
Just an opinion though
Dec 21st 2009, 8:52 pm
#1016
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Posts: 730
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
only kidding
Dec 21st 2009, 9:31 pm
#1017
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 51
Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
It certainly doesn't seem as if UK gov want to do anything about it! I think my main concern was for the GBP to fall through the floor...
When we arrived in March 08 it was just better than 2:1, and looking back on transfers, we took our house money over at $2.40:1, so in hindsight haven't done too badly at all.
Will take time to adjust to thinking 2:1 would be a good rate and will hurt family coming to visit in the next few months...
When we arrived in March 08 it was just better than 2:1, and looking back on transfers, we took our house money over at $2.40:1, so in hindsight haven't done too badly at all.
Will take time to adjust to thinking 2:1 would be a good rate and will hurt family coming to visit in the next few months...
Dec 23rd 2009, 12:56 am
#1018
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Thread Starter
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Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
forget state of UK, government etc. It all boils down to strength of aussie vs US$.
Aussie taking a beating at mo against the US so £ vs aussie going up a treat today!
Aussie taking a beating at mo against the US so £ vs aussie going up a treat today!
Dec 23rd 2009, 8:38 am
#1019
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Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!
Not exactly going up a treat.
Went from 1.81 to 1.82
I wish it was 3:1 as we could be selling our UK house, but somehow i don't think its gonna reach even 2:1 for a long time
Stu
Went from 1.81 to 1.82
I wish it was 3:1 as we could be selling our UK house, but somehow i don't think its gonna reach even 2:1 for a long time
Stu
