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1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:11 am
  #811  
ABCDiamond
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
As quoted in previous reply:

“In the early 80’s house prices fell 12% in real terms. From 1989-93, property prices fell by 23% in real terms.

If you bought in 1990 and sold after 93, it is obvious they would have gone up.
As quoted in previous reply:
During 1990 to 1996 house prices did not drop.
also
John Lindeman of Residex adds that during the 1990’s recession, property prices didn’t grow for a number of years. “The same thing happened during the 1970’s, in the years of high inflation, when prices stagnated. If we look further back, during the 1960’s credit squeeze, the market also went into a holding pattern for about 5 years.

“In each of these recessions, what we’ve found is that there are a few years of stagnation then single digit growth and then the market takes off.
Stagnation is mentioned NOT price drops.

Come on, where is your proof...

You have so far said it is a FACT that we will have a recession
You have also said it is a FACT that house prices will drop
You have said it is a FACT that house prices drop in a recession

FACTS need proof...

opinions however, are not FACTS.


Annual median house prices ($) - capital cities

Perth

1991 $ 99,500
1992 $102,500
1993 $112,750
1994 $123,125
1995 $126,788
1996 $126,625

Brisbane

1991 $120,000
1992 $129,000
1993 $136,500
1994 $143,000
1995 $147,000
1996 $148,000


Melbourne

1991 $127,000
1992 $125,000 OK It Dropped
1993 $126,000
1994 $130,000
1995 $129,000
1996 $131,000

Sydney
1991 $182,000
1992 $183,300
1993 $188,000
1994 $192,375
1995 $196,750
1996 $211,125

http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/research/2...elson_9_04.pdf
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 12:21 pm
  #812  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

1. You asked did house prices drop between 1990-91 recession yet interestingly you only provide figures from 1991. You then change your parameters to 1990-1996.

2. I have not once said it is a FACT that Australia will go into recession even though Glen Stevens declared Australia actually in Recession in April 2009 before the Government Stimulus began giving the effect of a 10% pay rise to all Australians.

3.I actually stated this; "In my opinion a recession will hit Australia and if so it has to be a fact that house prices will drop."

4. OK, I agree that house prices do not always drop during a recession so maybe not a fact. But, so much depends on their affordability during this time. During the 1990-91 recession, housing affordability was 3:1 based on a single income. The current figure if we use the average COMBINED household income is closer to 5:1 or 9:1 for single earner (SYDNEY Averages). The Government is forecasting unemployment to rise into 2010. The RBA raising interest rates to cool the Stimulus spending down. OZ$ strength making immigration less attractive=less demand......... I predict a fall in house prices.

5. Let's just see how this whole thing unfolds and revisit it in Feb-Mar 2010. I will be the first to say I was wrong!
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 12:38 pm
  #813  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
4. OK, I agree that house prices do not always drop during a recession so maybe not a fact.
And that is the bit I was disagreeing with.


Originally Posted by swigski
You asked did house prices drop between 1990-91 recession yet interestingly you only provide figures from 1991. You then change your parameters to 1990-1996.
Fair enough...

Median House prices in each State (from the same source)
QLD
Year Queensland : Brisbane
1985 $ 48,800 : $ 61,550
1986 $ 55,000 : $ 63,000
1987 $ 57,500 : $ 63,500
1988 $ 65,000 : $ 71,000
1989 $ 80,000 : $ 96,000
1990 $ 88,000 : $113,000
1991 $ 94,900 : $120,000
1992 $101,500 : $129,000
1993 $112,000 : $136,500
1994 $120,000 : $143,000
1995 $127,000 : $147,000
1996 $127,000 : $148,000
1997 $128,000 : $150,000
1998 $134,000 : $159,500
1999 $135,000 : $161,000
2000 $140,000 : $170,000
2001 $138,000 : $178,700
2002 $151,000 : $205,000
2003 $175,000 : $249,000
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 12:43 pm
  #814  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
2. I have not once said it is a FACT that Australia will go into recession even though Glen Stevens declared Australia actually in Recession in April 2009 before the Government Stimulus began giving the effect of a 10% pay rise to all Australians.

3.I actually stated this; "In my opinion a recession will hit Australia and if so it has to be a fact that house prices will drop."
You actually said this... (note: no mention of opinion)

Originally Posted by swigski
When the recession hits Australia, house prices will drop. That is not personal want but fact.
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 12:47 pm
  #815  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
And that is the bit I was disagreeing with.


Fair enough...

Median House prices in each State (from the same source)
QLD
Year Queensland : Brisbane
1985 $ 48,800 : $ 61,550
1986 $ 55,000 : $ 63,000
1987 $ 57,500 : $ 63,500
1988 $ 65,000 : $ 71,000
1989 $ 80,000 : $ 96,000
1990 $ 88,000 : $113,000
1991 $ 94,900 : $120,000
1992 $101,500 : $129,000
1993 $112,000 : $136,500
1994 $120,000 : $143,000
1995 $127,000 : $147,000
1996 $127,000 : $148,000
1997 $128,000 : $150,000
1998 $134,000 : $159,500
1999 $135,000 : $161,000
2000 $140,000 : $170,000
2001 $138,000 : $178,700
2002 $151,000 : $205,000
2003 $175,000 : $249,000
A graph would be nice. Only kidding

I guess you've not found anything to say what sort of % get their FTB year end rather than through the year. I had a bit of a look but couldn't find anything.

I just got the 2 Centrelink ones through a few days ago. I'm sure I can't be the only one
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 12:52 pm
  #816  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
A graph would be nice. Only kidding

I guess you've not found anything to say what sort of % get their FTB year end rather than through the year. I had a bit of a look but couldn't find anything.

I just got the 2 Centrelink ones through a few days ago. I'm sure I can't be the only one
I did look, but didn't find anything.
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:01 pm
  #817  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
I did look, but didn't find anything.
I think there's a conspiracy
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:02 pm
  #818  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
I think there's a conspiracy
If I can't find it there must be
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:03 pm
  #819  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
If I can't find it there must be

Maybe we could ask Vash...


S
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:19 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Anyone can use selective formatting to prove a point. Here are the median house prices for 1990-1991 for Sydney and Melbourne. (from the same source!)

SYD MEL
1990 194,000 131,000
1991 182,000 127,000

You asked this question

Did house prices drop in the 1990-91 recession ?

Where the bulk of the population lived, YES!!!!!! There's some FACTS for you!

Last edited by swigski; Nov 4th 2009 at 1:22 pm. Reason: unwanted info
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:22 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

My guess is somewhere between 20 and 30%
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:25 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
Anyone can use selective formatting to prove a point. Here are the median house prices for 1990-1991 for Sydney and Melbourne. (from the same source!)

SYD MEL
1990 194,000 131,000
1991 182,000 127,000

You asked this question

Did house prices drop in the 1990-91 recession ?

Where the bulk of the population lived, YES!!!!!! There's some FACTS for you!

Jeez, calm down. You'll be challenging him to a pissing contest or something next...

This is meant to be a structured, reasoned debate.


S
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:28 pm
  #823  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by Swerv-o
Jeez, calm down. You'll be challenging him to a pissing contest or something next...

This is meant to be a structured, reasoned debate.


S
He asked me to provide facts to back up my claim that house prices fall during a recession. That is what I did.

I'm very calm
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:34 pm
  #824  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
Anyone can use selective formatting to prove a point. Here are the median house prices for 1990-1991 for Sydney and Melbourne. (from the same source!)

SYD MEL
1990 194,000 131,000
1991 182,000 127,000

You asked this question

Did house prices drop in the 1990-91 recession ?

Where the bulk of the population lived, YES!!!!!! There's some FACTS for you!
As you say... Anyone can use selective formatting to prove a point

And you just did !! the only two places in the country to have a dip in prices in 1991 !

Everywhere else kept going up...
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 1:35 pm
  #825  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski

Where the bulk of the population lived, YES!!!!!! There's some FACTS for you!
Population in 1991
3,098,000 Sydney
3,156,000 Melbourne

Total 6,254,000 or 36% of the countries population

To say that 36% is the bulk, is I assume, one of your "facts" ?
 

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