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1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Old Nov 4th 2009, 5:26 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

So we seem to have 2 schools of thought here.

School A: The size of the stimulus is more of a problem than the size of the debt.

School B: The size of the debt is more of a problem than the size of the stimulus.


I think I'll put my hand up for School B
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 5:31 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by bcworld
It's actually not bollocks...as a percentage of GDP Australia has spent more than almost every other comparable country (if not the most) avoiding the recession, I saw the numbers the other week but can't find them again. The fact is the money was there to do it, which was different to some other countries.

Yes, really we need to be looking at the amount that has been borrowed to support stimulus as opposed to the total of the stimulus package.

I do cringe when I think about how the huge surplus built up over the Howard years is now gone. Certainly, if there are more economic hiccups around the corner, then there won't be anything left in the chest to fight it with, and Aus will head towards being a debt ridden basket case like the UK.

I really don't want to see that happen.


S
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 5:42 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
So we seem to have 2 schools of thought here.

School A: The size of the stimulus is more of a problem than the size of the debt.

School B: The size of the debt is more of a problem than the size of the stimulus.


I think I'll put my hand up for School B
In 2008, Australia was one of only 5 countries in the G20 to be in Surplus.

In 2009 it has the 9th largest deficit as a % of GDP of these same G20 countries.

In 2010 it is forecast to have the 8th largest deficit as a % of GDP.

That shows just how BIG the stimulus was. Only the UK and USA at double Australia's deficit are in much deeper. Most of the other countries deficits are at or around Australia's levels.
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 6:16 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
So you bought in 1990. When did you sell?
1996
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 6:18 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
In 2010 it is forecast to have the 8th largest deficit as a % of GDP.
But that's down to having a Labor government, nothing to do with anything else
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 7:15 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
In 2008, Australia was one of only 5 countries in the G20 to be in Surplus.

In 2009 it has the 9th largest deficit as a % of GDP of these same G20 countries.

In 2010 it is forecast to have the 8th largest deficit as a % of GDP.

That shows just how BIG the stimulus was. Only the UK and USA at double Australia's deficit are in much deeper. Most of the other countries deficits are at or around Australia's levels.
And how did the debt compare?

On deficits. I just looking at the figures in the link you supplied earlier: for 2009 Aus comes out at joint 10th and 11th with China. Now given that there are 19 countries in the G20 that means that there are more members (9) with a deficit higher than Aus than with lower deficits (8).

On the size of the stimulus. I've not denied that Aus had/has a big stimulus. Not sure where you're going with this one.

Code:
Figures from website

US	-13.5
UK	-11.6
Japan	-10.3
India	-9.8
France	-7.4
Italy	-5.9
Turkey	-5.8
Russ	-5.5
Germany	-4.6
Aus	-4.3
China	-4.3
Can	-4.2
Mex	-3.9
Arg	-3.3
Brazil	-3.2
SK	-3.2
SA	-2.8
Indo	-2.6
Saudi	4.2

Last edited by MartinLuther; Nov 4th 2009 at 7:39 am.
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 10:54 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
1996
Well that explains it!
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:04 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
Well that explains it!
It may well...between 1993 and 1996 Australia enjoyed a period of very high but stable economic growth...if prices had fallen during the recession they would probably have risen again.
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:06 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
And how did the debt compare?

On deficits. I just looking at the figures in the link you supplied earlier: for 2009 Aus comes out at joint 10th and 11th with China. Now given that there are 19 countries in the G20 that means that there are more members (9) with a deficit higher than Aus than with lower deficits (8).

On the size of the stimulus. I've not denied that Aus had/has a big stimulus. Not sure where you're going with this one.

Code:
Figures from website

US	-13.5
UK	-11.6
Japan	-10.3
India	-9.8
France	-7.4
Italy	-5.9
Turkey	-5.8
Russ	-5.5
Germany	-4.6
Aus	-4.3
China	-4.3
Can	-4.2
Mex	-3.9
Arg	-3.3
Brazil	-3.2
SK	-3.2
SA	-2.8
Indo	-2.6
Saudi	4.2
Not going anywhere. Just quoting some facts from the link as you have done

I have said before that the Oz stimulus being so big is what has SO FAR stopped Australia officially going into recession. Will it be enough going into 2010?
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:15 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
Well that explains it!
Yep, it does. Prices did not drop.
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:16 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
But that's down to having a Labor government, nothing to do with anything else
Would any other party have not used fiscal stimulus to try and fight the recession??

The Labour Government was lucky in that it had a surplus to begin with.

Do you believe that it has used that surplus wisely if it somehow means that Australia has avoided the GFC as you are suggesting
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:17 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
I have said before that the Oz stimulus being so big is what has SO FAR stopped Australia officially going into recession. Will it be enough going into 2010?
But what caused the worlds recession, and does that effect still apply now ?

What grounds are actually out there, to now cause a recession in Australia ?
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:21 pm
  #808  
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by swigski
Would any other party have not used fiscal stimulus to try and fight the recession??

The Labour Government was lucky in that it had a surplus to begin with.

Do you believe that it has used that surplus wisely if it somehow means that Australia has avoided the GFC as you are suggesting
My comment with was directed purely at the 2010 reference, if you care to re-read it.

Posted by swigski
In 2010 it is forecast to have the 8th largest deficit as a % of GDP.

Posted by ABCDiamond
But that's down to having a Labor government, nothing to do with anything else
 
Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:21 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Yep, it does. Prices did not drop.
As quoted in previous reply:

“In the early 80’s house prices fell 12% in real terms. From 1989-93, property prices fell by 23% in real terms.

If you bought in 1990 and sold after 93, it is obvious they would have gone up.
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Old Nov 4th 2009, 11:47 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
What grounds are actually out there, to now cause a recession in Australia ?
Something I've been wondering. I can see no premises to that conclusion.

Australia has spent a higher percentage of its GDP on stimulus. I accept that.

House prices are high. Not news. House prices remain high in the UK too even after they have suffered what is the longest recession in history. House prices go up and go down. We all know the cycle.

Both of those factors a recession do not make.

All economies are approaching the recovery with caution but with other global factors such as a shift to the East as powerhouses of the next few decades most likely, I can see overall nothing that will lead to recession and neither it seems do any economists.

Of course our nice Labor government could screw it all up and spend some more money yet...
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