Originally Posted by Centurion

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle6896278.ece
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125685441940816979.html

5th November is the date to watch. 3rd November sees the RBA with the interest rate meeting.

Originally Posted by swigski

I know this, but I am talking about the First Home Buyers Grant (FHB) or First Time Buyers Grant (FTB) not Fringe Tax Benefits.

Originally Posted by MrCro

coz stockmarkets are down = aud down vs yank $ and = £ up vs aud

I still expect stockmarkets to take another hit and £ will fly!

The bottom I called couple of weeks ago looking good, hope all those wanting to buy back £'s took advantage!

Originally Posted by swigski

For those of you who , here is a snippet from a SMH article which backs up what I have been trying to say about the FIRST HOME BUYERS grant (FHB) artificially stimulating house prices.

According to the chief economist at CommSec, Craig James, new-home sales fell by 4.5 per cent in September after surging over 11 per cent to 19-month highs in August.

''The latest home-sales data is a welcome reality check,'' he said. ''While the Australian economy is doing well, activity in some parts of the economy is being artificially inflated by government stimulus.

''And the housing sector is a case in point. Not only has construction been boosted by government grants but interest rates are still hovering at generational lows. The government stimulus is in the process of being scaled back and the Reserve Bank has started to lift interest rates.

''We won't get a true sense of the state of the housing market until the temporary stimulus is totally withdrawn.''

And a snippet from another article:

The RP Data-Rismark index identified the recovery earlier than those prepared by real estate agents. It compares ''like sales'' with ''like sales'' and so is not distorted by changes in the composition of the stock sold.

''The booming growth that they are reporting now may relate more to past than present conditions,'' Mr Joye said. ''We see no evidence of prices accelerating.''

Reserve Bank figures released yesterday showed demand for credit remained weak. Total borrowing climbing just 1.7 per cent over the year to September, the slowest pace since 1993.

Originally Posted by MartinLuther

Fair enough but I was talking about the FTB (Family Tax Benefit) and the stimulus associated with it, hence your post about Fringe Tax Benefits (sic) made no sense.

Originally Posted by DownUnderPaddy

I guess if you call it often enough, you get it right eventually

Originally Posted by swigski

A Misunderstanding caused by me using FTB as an abbreviation for First Time Buyers!

Originally Posted by swigski

I know this, but I am talking about the First Home Buyers Grant (FHB) or First Time Buyers Grant (FTB) not Fringe Tax Benefits.

Originally Posted by MartinLuther

But the main affect of the stimulus has been to transfer private debt to public debt. Now, given that Aus started in the black the larger stimulus in Aus has not pushed Aus more into the red than the UK or US or pretty much anyone else apart from Canada.

As for the impending doom predictions I suspect they hold as much water as the predictions that the GFC is going to hit Aus sometime later than the rest of the developed world because it takes time for the effects to reach us from the UK and US. (Presumably because it's on a slow boat somewhere on the high seas.)

The biggest danger now is that all the extra money sloshing around will cause inflation. Although that is countered by the strong dollar (bingo - there's the connection to the exchange rate).

What is reassuring from reading the UK and Aus press is that Aus seems to have planned for the worst case senario and things have turned out better than expected whilst the UK has planned for the best case scenario and things are not working as well as they hoped. But then again maybe the Aus press just has it's head in the sand

Originally Posted by swigski

A little snippet from the SMH on how retail trade prices are down for the month of September

Stimulus wears out

The effects of Federal Government's stimulus spending, starting in October last year, may be wearing out, if today's retail sales figures are any guide.

''There does look to be some fatigue from consumers after bringing forward some expenditure because of the stimulus,'' said Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong. ''We're watching these numbers to get a sense of how well the consumer is holding up as the stimulus is withdrawn.''


Looks like the RBA may now avoid rising rates next month.

I suggested that the Australian Government's MASSIVE stimulus was responsible for papering over the cracks..................................



I will keep reminding you of this as the Australian recession keeps unfolding!

Originally Posted by MartinLuther

OK. Sad though that is, can you wait until Aus is officially in recession?

Originally Posted by swigski

That is not my point. My point all along is that people have foolishly believed that the Australian economy is something special. Although it has fared better than most, much of this can be attributed to the massive stimulus.
As a resident of Aus, it does not give me pleasure at all. I do hope that I'm wrong but it does seem that the picture is darkening somewhat.

Originally Posted by swigski

A little snippet from the SMH on how retail trade prices are down for the month of September

The effects of Federal Government's stimulus spending, starting in October last year, may be wearing out, if today's retail sales figures are any guide.

''There does look to be some fatigue from consumers after bringing forward some expenditure because of the stimulus,'' said Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong. ''We're watching these numbers to get a sense of how well the consumer is holding up as the stimulus is withdrawn.''

Originally Posted by swigski

That is not my point. My point all along is that people have foolishly believed that the Australian economy is something special. Although it has fared better than most, much of this can be attributed to the massive stimulus.
As a resident of Aus, it does not give me pleasure at all. I do hope that I'm wrong but it does seem that the picture is darkening somewhat.