king kong

just watched an interesting programme on ABC , the financial analyst reckons that stocks have reached their peak and they will struggle and we may see side ways move ment and stagnation for awhile on stocks , i guess this doesnt hold well for the ausssie dollar against the pound .
How the forcasting two interest rate rises before xmas here in aussie will affect the ozdollar/pound i dont know but i would imagine the dollar would restrengthen , we are in strange times never seen such disparity between interest rates between countries , maybe one or two percent but the difference between the aussie dollar bank rate and the british bank rates is massive .
If you got a mass of cash then the ozdollar will give a good return ,if you got pounds stuck in the uk it has next to no return and is most likely devaluing .Blimey this stock /currency stuff is tricky business .

MrCro

the hit that £ took you have to think further rate rises are already 'priced in' as the market tends to do that.

I stand by my guns that this thing is far from over and Australia may be in a false dawn, but then I have been wrong before! Stockmarkets are likely a significant pull back rather than sideways stagnation especially as in the states Wall St is running whilst the real economy at public level is still slowly wondering if it's time to walk yet!!! BUBBLE TROUBLE!!!

I did call a bottom on this exchange rate somewhere on this thread last week and so far that's looking good so

We'll still be heading to Oz in the New Year but I'll have to work rather than set up my own business like I have here.

Think we might get around 2.10 in the new year unless there is another major shock then 2.50+ here we come!!!!!!!!!!!

ABCDiamond

Look at 1976 and 1985



Oct-1976 0.7801 (1.282 dollars per pound)

But then also consider what happened immediately afterwards...

king kong

i dont know about the 1970s but in the mid 80s that was when it was floated ,what ever that means and then is seemd to decrease in value .

ABCDiamond

I know what you mean

Floating it, in 1983, removed the confusion

king kong

looks like it added to the confusion ,its been up and down like a bloody yo-yo since .It can make or break you depending on which way you go.

koalakim

At the moment I think we are with the string fully extended on the yo-yo! Bounce up, bounce up.....please!!

We finally exchanged some the other day on the basis that we'd be totally stuffed if it went much lower...now it's gone up a bit! Hedged our bets and keeping some back - so will continue to watch and transfer as and when but we had to bring some over in case our plans do go ahead.

It's all very exhausting this.......!!!

MrCro

£ flying again today - heading towards 1.79 at the mo!

MartinLuther

It'll be 2.4 by next October

(I've decided to change my predictions from September as they always seem a couple of weeks late )

johnnyx0

Don't expect the exchange rates to go up anytime soon. With interest rates rising in Oz, so will the strength of the dollar. RBA have hinted at a possible eleven straight rate rises, and so my prediction is 1.4 by next April at the latest...

ABCDiamond

I tend to agree with both posts above....

Somewhere between 1.4 and 2.4... that's my expert opinion, but i could be wrong

Stu Ward

I think that could be the most sensible and accurate punt in this thread for many a page.

MrCro, you also predicted a resurgency in the £ when it sat just below the 2.00 mark.

eugene43

So if the interest rates rise as predicted what happens to those who have brought houses when interes rates were low ?.Does this mean people moving from the uk pick up a bargain from those who now cant keep up with repayments ?. So what we lose through the value of the pound we gain back will cheaper houses please correct my post if my logic does not make sense.

Swerv-o

That's if house prices fall. banks here really tightened up their lending criteria very quickly, and many will have factored in a return to more normal interest rates as part of their lending packages.

Certainly in the area I live in, house prices have increased substantially over the last year of the financial crisis, and even though people fully expect rates to rise, the demand isn't tailing off.

I waited over 2 years for prices to fall, on the basis of the doom and gloom merchants predictions about a housing bubble waiting to burst, and all I gained from it was living in rented accommodation for two years. I signed a contract the week before Lehman Brothers folded, and was pleasantly surprised to discover that my house, despite the GFC, is now worth $100k more than I paid for it last year.

This is of course all dependent on area. My advice would be to look for somewhere near the city centre - as cars and transport costs increase, people will find inner city living a much more attractive option.


S

ABCDiamond

Most people, when told that the current rates were very low emergency rates, would have known that they would head back up to average at some stage.

However, not everyone listened. There will be some who may need to sell up, but not enough, at my guess, to make much difference to property prices in general.

There will be some bargains, but you may have to be quick to get them, as the property investors appear to be moving in again.

Bottom line is: Do NOT 'rely' on prices dropping.