stuckinblighty

1.81








friggin hell

MrCro

1.81 earlier, up around 1.83 now - have we had the bottom????

Safin

you (and I) wish!

my estimate - by end of oct it'll be hovering around 1.63 a full $ away from last years Oct!!!!! God i hope I am wrong

king kong

good for those returning though , it was good the other way a couple of years ago . No doubt when the uk economy and banking system gets its act together things will start to budge .
Its certainly making a few expats who are fence sitting take notice and maybe make the move to the uk . I think your right though it will go lower as all the news from the uk isnt no where as good as australia .But i also think if u have dollars and exchange now for pounds that within 6 months youll make a pot of money .
I feel sorry for those wanting to come to aussie at the moment ,its a difficult decision to make ,ie cut your loses and run or ride the economic storm out in the uk knowing property prices are generally on the up here in australia now . swings and roundabouts ,decisions decisions .

MrCro

AUD due a correction downwards as it's too closely correlated to US stockmarkets which are getting very edgy!

US consumer confidence just released and lowered from previous months, the consumer accounts for 70% of their economy so when they ain't buying they ain't recovering!

That knocks on as that means China ain't selling to the states (not to mention UK and Europe) which means China buys alot less commodities from Australia to make the products!

It's one large vicious knock on effect circle so when UK and US not doing as well as Australia it's only a matter of time before it affects Australia! Then US and UK go on the up it then takes a while for that to filter through especially as it is well known that China has been stockpiling commodities which they are sitting on.

Yank stockmarket very overdue a drop, won't be as large as last Oct unless another big company fails but there will be one and that will cause some correction in the Aussie and £'s.

I could write pages on all this but you'd all be bored as I'm boring myself now!

But hours of reading and watching Bloomberg do show that things are still very dodgy - a W shape or double dip recession is very plausible! Which could mean another rate spike like last OCt or even larger - nobody really knows until it all goes (-)(-)'s up like it did this time last year and that was out of the blue as Lehman had already gone under in the weeks before!!!

This thing is far from over I think.

craig_m67

so what you're saying is i should send 100% of my lump home (UK) now and wait for it all to ping back up...
.. how far up do you reckon up will be (based on the vicious knock on effect circle )

i'm not taking the piss btw (okay, i am drinking a bit) - I know that the people who live and breath this shite have no real idea ... This is why i don't have the balls to play FX with my familys nest egg. Happy to park it in Aust. at 5% and dream of my lost 45% FX gains last Oct sunning myself on the Amalfi.. which is where we were, but had no idea about the crash.. gellato, red wine and god food had us preoccupied and we didnt' notice the GFCs until some scottish mates said they couldn get their funds *L*

yadda yadda

mecheng

I think you need to treat the exchange rate like the stockmarket. If you keep looking at it at on a daily basis it will drive you crazy!

craig_m67

i find it fascinating.. certainly not driving me crazy.

i do wonder how low GB and his hench men want to drive it though. Is it (the low) hard linked to a certain percentage of the $US and/or do the other major currencies (yen/EU/etc) factor in.

If you look at the EU/NZ or EU/AU over the last ten years.. there isn't any real instability

ming-the-merciless

Working on the basis if the pounds devaluation against the euro I agree . I think that it will touch the mid 1.60's before we see a bounce back (slowly) to 2 - 2.20. I'll be selling dollars at less than 1.70 & buying back at > 1.80 up to 2.10:

DownUnderPaddy

ahhh, but with all that said, what it comes down to is this.....
When do you buy, when do you sell ?

Right now ? tonight ? tomorrow ? at 3:52pm on Tuesday next week ?

It's getting the timing of the decision and anticipating the market correctly which is the trick. Whoever is able to do this becomes a millionaire overnight

The market however, is inherently linked to the 'observer effect' and rarely wishes to cooperate with us

mindblower

)[/QUOTE]

When Oz interest rates go up soon = pound = down further.

renth

When Oz interest rates go up soon = pound = down further.[/QUOTE]

I think this is already priced in to the current rate.

ABCDiamond

But what is priced in ? The Nov and December increases ? But what about the October increase next week ?

paulry

The way that the Brown is carrying on we'll be looking at parity before long

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...e-Britain.html

Grayling

So you really think an acknowledged rabidly right wing journalist writing for a rabid right wing paper will give an objective view of a labour prime minister?