Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Australia
Reload this Page >

1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Old Oct 8th 2010, 12:02 am
  #2371  
BE Forum Addict
 
Seneca21's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,048
Seneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by littda01
Quite interesting the timing of this data being released, given the IMF yesterday said that the UK housing market was way overvalued. Wonder if they had a sneak peek :-)

I certainly would not buy property in the UK right now, IMO the worst is coming in the next couple years. JMO of course.

But it is interesting to compare to Aus - UK rents are much closer to mortgage costs. I think they will probably come down as house prices come down - a perfect storm. In Aus, the multiples of rental cost you have to pay to buy a house are lunatic - it is not worth 2, 3 or 4 times rent for the privilege of home ownership. If anything, rent should be MORE expensive than owning - it is with every other type of asset.
Totally agree. I think Aussie house prices are due for a massive crash of megatsunami proportions - the problem is I think we're looking at 10 years etc, not any time soon.
Seneca21 is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 12:10 am
  #2372  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
littda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nice
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by Seneca21
Totally agree. I think Aussie house prices are due for a massive crash of megatsunami proportions - the problem is I think we're looking at 10 years etc, not any time soon.
I think it will be sooner than that, though I dont know if it will be a megatsunami. The only way it could come in 10 years, IMO, is if that 10 years is essentially a period of price stagnation.

Remember asset bubbles can and do burst even in booming economies. They burst when the maximum amount of leverage has been reached, and market sentiment does a 180.

A little fear, uncertainty and doubt, and those loss-making investors will want out of there sharp.

I think a sign of this is the fact that house-building rates are dropping significantly. If supply is short (supposedly), credit is cheap (as it gets anyway), the economy is booming and the housing market is only going up, why is it that developers either can't get the funding, or can't forsee a profit, and are therefore sitting on potential projects?

Now should be a golden time for them, how could conditions possibly get any better?

Maximum leverage is nearing. JMO of course, could be 100% wrong
littda01 is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 3:35 am
  #2373  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
ozzieeagle's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
ozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond reputeozzieeagle has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by littda01
I think it will be sooner than that, though I dont know if it will be a megatsunami. The only way it could come in 10 years, IMO, is if that 10 years is essentially a period of price stagnation.

Remember asset bubbles can and do burst even in booming economies. They burst when the maximum amount of leverage has been reached, and market sentiment does a 180.

A little fear, uncertainty and doubt, and those loss-making investors will want out of there sharp.

I think a sign of this is the fact that house-building rates are dropping significantly. If supply is short (supposedly), credit is cheap (as it gets anyway), the economy is booming and the housing market is only going up, why is it that developers either can't get the funding, or can't forsee a profit, and are therefore sitting on potential projects?

Now should be a golden time for them, how could conditions possibly get any better?

Maximum leverage is nearing. JMO of course, could be 100% wrong
Problem I have with this, is I'm about to undertake a project and all builders are telling me they cannot start for at least 6months. They are all booked out way ahead.

Melbourne's housing market has been like this for years now, with building prices to match.

Coincidently, I heard on the radio yesterday that the average wage for a Tradesmen on a building site here is 130,000 Aud. Some Electrical contractors livng away from home.... Like the Wonthaggi desal project are pulling in more than 200,000.
ozzieeagle is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 3:39 am
  #2374  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Wendy's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2005
Location: at the bottom of a wine glass
Posts: 28,176
Wendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Like the Wonthaggi desal project are pulling in more than 200,000.

Yes, I can well believe that, I have seen some of the contracts! (I work for the company who are building the Desal Plant, albeit I am based on a different project in SA )
Wendy is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 5:14 am
  #2375  
Banned
 
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 22,348
paulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by Seneca21
With British house prices crashing a record -3.6% in September it might be worth starting to think about buying property in UK and letting it out rather than transferring it into AUD at record lows and getting screwed hard in the process.
Funny, I was thinking about that yesterday. Property prices are likely to drop further so it might be a compelling option once OH and I are breaking even earning AU$
paulry is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 5:24 am
  #2376  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
littda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nicelittda01 is just really nice
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Problem I have with this, is I'm about to undertake a project and all builders are telling me they cannot start for at least 6months. They are all booked out way ahead.

Melbourne's housing market has been like this for years now, with building prices to match.

Coincidently, I heard on the radio yesterday that the average wage for a Tradesmen on a building site here is 130,000 Aud. Some Electrical contractors livng away from home.... Like the Wonthaggi desal project are pulling in more than 200,000.
I know, I saw your comments in another thread, and I'm not at all surprised that builders are busy because I see them every day around my area remodelling crappy homes into million dollar mansions

What I was talking about specifically was large-scale development, where many companies are faring poorly - few projects ongoing, poor returns on those that are, low stock market valuations etc.

What this says to me, as well as high building costs and high land costs, is that they can't get the funding models they need even with pretty favourable conditions, and they don't see the potential returns looking 2-4 years out (and neither do investors, hence the low stock prices). That is a bad sign IMO.

This all reminds me (just from own experience) both of SE Asia in 1997 and Spain more recently (and probably Ireland). When the downturn came, it hit even harder because of the amount of resource and capital tied up in construction. Thousands of projects just stopped mid-train because the funding evaporated overnight.

Some of the stuff going on in the outback is mental. Monthly rentals in places like Karratha are approaching $10k per month because there's no places to put the workers who are needed to build houses (for the miners), and the materials all have to be trucked in. So its like a catch-22.

All of this is not sustainable. Its nuts frankly.
littda01 is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 5:40 am
  #2377  
Forum Regular
 
Don_Angel's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 70
Don_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really niceDon_Angel is just really nice
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by littda01

All of this is not sustainable. Its nuts frankly.
You're not wrong. Land lord has just been charged $300 and had to wait 5 days to replace a bog standard mixer tap in the kitchen. I offered to do it myself but was not allowed. Took him longer to right the bill than the actual job.
Don_Angel is offline  
Old Oct 8th 2010, 5:50 am
  #2378  
BE Forum Addict
 
Seneca21's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,048
Seneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond reputeSeneca21 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by Don_Angel
You're not wrong. Land lord has just been charged $300 and had to wait 5 days to replace a bog standard mixer tap in the kitchen. I offered to do it myself but was not allowed. Took him longer to right the bill than the actual job.
Why did he not do it himself on the QT? No one would ever know.
Seneca21 is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 9:44 am
  #2379  
Banned
 
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 22,348
paulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Currently 1.62

Where to from here?
paulry is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:30 am
  #2380  
BE Forum Addict
 
freebo's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2008
Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast
Posts: 1,920
freebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by paulry
Currently 1.62

Where to from here?
No-one knows, but there are (quiet) calls from the treasury among others that the AUD strength is hurting exporters and tax revenues.
freebo is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:39 am
  #2381  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Wendy's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2005
Location: at the bottom of a wine glass
Posts: 28,176
Wendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by paulry
Currently 1.62

Where to from here?
I don't know against the pound, but I heard talks on the radio this morning that they are 'expecting' the Aussie dollar to reach parity with the US dollar in the next few weeks. They being the banks
Wendy is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:47 am
  #2382  
BE Forum Addict
 
freebo's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2008
Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast
Posts: 1,920
freebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by Wendy
I don't know against the pound, but I heard talks on the radio this morning that they are 'expecting' the Aussie dollar to reach parity with the US dollar in the next few weeks. They being the banks
vs the USD we're currently at 0.99 so parity probably isn't as far away as that. What Australia is slowly waking up to is a strong dollar may not be such a good thing.
freebo is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:50 am
  #2383  
Banned
 
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 22,348
paulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond reputepaulry has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by freebo
No-one knows, but there are (quiet) calls from the treasury among others that the AUD strength is hurting exporters and tax revenues.
Originally Posted by Wendy
I don't know against the pound, but I heard talks on the radio this morning that they are 'expecting' the Aussie dollar to reach parity with the US dollar in the next few weeks. They being the banks
It's a tough one. My instincts tell me to wait but then again the 20th is coming and there are new rumours of further QE. Wifey is putting pressure on me to transfer her savings now even at this apparently insane rate so I might just do that and "borrow" from her if things get even worse.
paulry is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:55 am
  #2384  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Wendy's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2005
Location: at the bottom of a wine glass
Posts: 28,176
Wendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond reputeWendy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by freebo
vs the USD we're currently at 0.99 so parity probably isn't as far away as that. What Australia is slowly waking up to is a strong dollar may not be such a good thing.
I've seen a bit of both.

I really have no idea myself, I only really have any interest because I want it to stay high until after my UK trip in a couple of weeks



Originally Posted by paulry
It's a tough one. My instincts tell me to wait but then again the 20th is coming and there are new rumours of further QE. Wifey is putting pressure on me to transfer her savings now even at this apparently insane rate so I might just do that and "borrow" from her if things get even worse.
Wish I had a crystal ball you could borrow!
Wendy is offline  
Old Oct 11th 2010, 11:58 am
  #2385  
BE Forum Addict
 
freebo's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2008
Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast
Posts: 1,920
freebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond reputefreebo has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by paulry
It's a tough one. My instincts tell me to wait but then again the 20th is coming and there are new rumours of further QE. Wifey is putting pressure on me to transfer her savings now even at this apparently insane rate so I might just do that and "borrow" from her if things get even worse.
I was in this position 6 months ago, we transferred our startup cash at 1.68, 1.74 and 1.78 (from memory) but only for a total of about £30,000. For startup sums we just bit the bullet, as flights where booked and we knew we'd have expenses, but for life savings its a bit more difficult.
freebo is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.