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1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Old Aug 23rd 2010, 4:50 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by DownUnderPaddy
Interesting, seems to have gone the same way here...
The reality is that the fundamentals of the Australian economy remain the same despite who gets in. The only difference is that I suspect is the AUD will be buoyed in the event that Abbott forms government, only because the market will favour a repayment of debt approach to the economy. Only then slightly.
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Old Aug 23rd 2010, 12:37 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Amidst all the political turmoil, the $ remains steady ( or within a +/- 2C bump against the £)
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Old Aug 23rd 2010, 1:25 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

thankfully I closed my positions and took profit last night!

still time for things to sink in to how markets are taking all this - time will tell as always!

today I'm staying away from any trades
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Old Aug 24th 2010, 1:57 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Outcome of the election no big deal - policies are likely the same whatever outcome.

Main reason the GBP tanked a bit after the election is there was a) a very big issue to be resolved with UK economy b) significant doubt about which way things would shape up politically c) doubt about how tough any coalition could be in terms of cutting public expenditure.

Once the outcome became clear, the GBP went on its "tear" nearly making it up to 1.80 before sliding back down again. The fact that this is all it did shows the underlying weakness.
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Old Aug 24th 2010, 11:17 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by littda01
Outcome of the election no big deal - policies are likely the same whatever outcome.

Main reason the GBP tanked a bit after the election is there was a) a very big issue to be resolved with UK economy b) significant doubt about which way things would shape up politically c) doubt about how tough any coalition could be in terms of cutting public expenditure.

Once the outcome became clear, the GBP went on its "tear" nearly making it up to 1.80 before sliding back down again. The fact that this is all it did shows the underlying weakness.
outcome of american double dip scare and stock markets tanking again today = downhill skiing for AU$ and it does not count for anything what the australian economy is like or mineral exports I'm afraid! Yanky dollar controls the whole forex market!!!

£ hitting 1.80 was nothing to do with UK elections it was only because AU$ sank against US$ when carry trade flopped.

relative strength index is key driver here!

for all us £ sellers the market is positioning nicely for a spike!

I'm short AU$ against everything now!

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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:32 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MrCro
outcome of american double dip scare and stock markets tanking again today = downhill skiing for AU$ and it does not count for anything what the australian economy is like or mineral exports I'm afraid! Yanky dollar controls the whole forex market!!!

£ hitting 1.80 was nothing to do with UK elections it was only because AU$ sank against US$ when carry trade flopped.

relative strength index is key driver here!

for all us £ sellers the market is positioning nicely for a spike!

I'm short AU$ against everything now!

Are you saying that the GBP/AUD rate (currently approx $1.75) looks like it might go to, maybe $1.80 or $1.85? or more maybe?
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:45 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

I read the other day that Bank of America and Merrill Lynch forecast the AU$ to fall by 10% by the end of the year.
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:51 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MrCro
outcome of american double dip scare and stock markets tanking again today = downhill skiing for AU$ and it does not count for anything what the australian economy is like or mineral exports I'm afraid! Yanky dollar controls the whole forex market!!!

£ hitting 1.80 was nothing to do with UK elections it was only because AU$ sank against US$ when carry trade flopped.

relative strength index is key driver here!

for all us £ sellers the market is positioning nicely for a spike!

I'm short AU$ against everything now!


TBH, I'm not really that clear what you're saying here. I think the GBP hitting 1.80 was most definitely related to the UK elections, at least thats what the FT and WSJ seemed to indicate.

Agreed the currency markets do have a logic of their own (eg carry trade), but over the medium/long term they're very much swayed by the fundamental economic and political situations.

Only way the GBP is gonna spike high is if world markets tank big time, which given the latest doom about the US economy, could very well happen. Otherwise the Aussie is set well against the USD and GBP.
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:58 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

They are talking about a double dip recession in the UK again, so that will send the pound down again...on the other hand if inflation gets out of control they were talking about interest rates going sky high which would help the pound!

I've got most of mine over now so I have to say it is nice not to be having to study forex every five minutes!
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:58 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by 77hil
I read the other day that Bank of America and Merrill Lynch forecast the AU$ to fall by 10% by the end of the year.
I wouldn't rely on them.
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 1:32 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

If it really was that easy, none of us would be working. We would be sitting at home playing the money markets, sipping champagne and considering our next tropical island purchase.


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Old Aug 25th 2010, 1:50 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

I think some people probably do! However, I think I'd been carted off to the asylum.....far too stressful!

On my recent forex experience so far I'd be well and truely broke as the minute I changed my last lot up the pound shot up! I thought I was doing well because it was 3 cents higher than at the beginning of that week...if only I'd known
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 4:51 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Has thrown the towel in guessing exchange rates.
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 11:49 am
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by littda01
TBH, I'm not really that clear what you're saying here. I think the GBP hitting 1.80 was most definitely related to the UK elections, at least thats what the FT and WSJ seemed to indicate.

Agreed the currency markets do have a logic of their own (eg carry trade), but over the medium/long term they're very much swayed by the fundamental economic and political situations.

Only way the GBP is gonna spike high is if world markets tank big time, which given the latest doom about the US economy, could very well happen. Otherwise the Aussie is set well against the USD and GBP.
OK, when £ went up to 1.80+ recently it was during a period of heavy selling of AU$ (and stocks and carry trades positions etc.) it was actually triggered by the problems in Greece.

As a result the rate of aussie vs US$ dropped down to the low 80cents.

When the aussie was that low is when the £ went 1.80+. It's all about how strong the aussie is against the yank $. 'relative strength'

£ and UK can be crap but it doesn't matter, look at the charts and you'll see whenever the au$ goes down against us$ the £ gets stronger against the aussie.

Hope that clears it up.
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Old Aug 25th 2010, 12:39 pm
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Default Re: 1.93's A$ to the Pound!!!

Originally Posted by MrCro
OK, when £ went up to 1.80+ recently it was during a period of heavy selling of AU$ (and stocks and carry trades positions etc.) it was actually triggered by the problems in Greece.

As a result the rate of aussie vs US$ dropped down to the low 80cents.

When the aussie was that low is when the £ went 1.80+. It's all about how strong the aussie is against the yank $. 'relative strength'

£ and UK can be crap but it doesn't matter, look at the charts and you'll see whenever the au$ goes down against us$ the £ gets stronger against the aussie.

Hope that clears it up.
I dunno if it was something you said but all of a sudden the £ to AU$ is on the up up up!
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