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1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Old Oct 10th 2009, 6:15 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Did people notice that the Reserve Bank raised interest rate a dew days ago? It was the first bank in the world to raise interest after Lehman went bust.

This means Ausssie dollar will be strong for a long time coupled with demand for iron ore that will keep going for a long time. This is the biggest Revolution since the Industrial Revolution in the UK in the 19th century.
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Old Oct 11th 2009, 1:22 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

For those of you, like myself, who held off exchanging at $2.30 earlier this year (house sale proceeds), looking at the tumbling £ this last 4 weeks is especially painful. $2 was bad enough. $1.75 is excruciating !
I agree that the AU$ is going to be strong against most other currencies for some time.
The only way that rates are going to get back to anywhere near $2 (let alone higher) is if there is a major crash in the Chinese SE and commodity prices.
Some commentators have predicted this, as Chinese bank loans have been invested in the commodity and stock markets by companies rather than investing in their business (the actual intention of the loans). This has therefore falsely inflated both the SE and commodites. If there's a (predicted) correction, anything that hits the Chinese will hit Oz too.
Ofcourse this is just one theory, but it's the only way I'll get a decent exchange rate in the foreseeable future !! I'm not holding my breath.
One of these commentators also said that the recent falls in £ were inevitable and that he thought the £ was finished as a currency. It would end up, like the US dollar, as a new Carry Trade currency, replacing the Yen.
Meantime, we'll be stuck in rented accommodation coz the price of Oz housing will make it WAY too expensive to buy, but then we are only on a Provisional Visa, so that might be jumping the gun anyway.
Depressing, huh?
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Old Oct 11th 2009, 4:41 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Originally Posted by BATS666
For those of you, like myself, who held off exchanging at $2.30 earlier this year (house sale proceeds), looking at the tumbling £ this last 4 weeks is especially painful. $2 was bad enough. $1.75 is excruciating !
I agree that the AU$ is going to be strong against most other currencies for some time.
The only way that rates are going to get back to anywhere near $2 (let alone higher) is if there is a major crash in the Chinese SE and commodity prices.
Some commentators have predicted this, as Chinese bank loans have been invested in the commodity and stock markets by companies rather than investing in their business (the actual intention of the loans). This has therefore falsely inflated both the SE and commodites. If there's a (predicted) correction, anything that hits the Chinese will hit Oz too.
Ofcourse this is just one theory, but it's the only way I'll get a decent exchange rate in the foreseeable future !! I'm not holding my breath.
One of these commentators also said that the recent falls in £ were inevitable and that he thought the £ was finished as a currency. It would end up, like the US dollar, as a new Carry Trade currency, replacing the Yen.
Meantime, we'll be stuck in rented accommodation coz the price of Oz housing will make it WAY too expensive to buy, but then we are only on a Provisional Visa, so that might be jumping the gun anyway.
Depressing, huh?
If it helps (but it's unlikely) I'm in exactly the same boat.. Uk funds could of come over at 2.05, but I thought, nah, it will bounce back up.. Now missed out on the home we wanted because our deposit had shrank so much... Suck much.. Oh yes..
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Old Oct 11th 2009, 10:26 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

..[/QUOTE]

Good points....xferred just in time...not ideal , but not disastrous as now...hmmm.....arse.
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Old Oct 11th 2009, 12:11 pm
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Hi Dave, how's it going ?
P
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Old Oct 12th 2009, 3:20 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Originally Posted by BATS666
Hi Dave, how's it going ?
P
Hi...how long have you got ? =-lol.
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Old Oct 12th 2009, 3:24 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

I GUESS YOU DON'T FEEL SO BAD CHANGING AT $1.98 A FEW WEEKS BACK, NOW ??
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Old Oct 12th 2009, 6:52 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

We were so lucky - bought a house in March/April and thought we had done bad with the final transfer at 2.09...but I guess we did very well and couldn't have afforded to buy where we have with the rates now.
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Old Oct 12th 2009, 7:12 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch



Fabulous fabulous fabulous - well for those of us still paying UK mortgages with our Aussie earnings it is anyway!

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Old Oct 12th 2009, 9:57 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Looks like they are predicting UK interest rates and therefore the pound to be low for some time.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8301418.stm
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Old Oct 12th 2009, 11:02 am
  #56  
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

We will be transferring all our money back to the UK in the next week or so.( i fly 6th Nov).If it wasn't for having put an offer on a property in Scotland we may have hung on a wee bit.Getting the house for a really good price anyway so ALLS GOOD.
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Old Jan 21st 2010, 9:55 am
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
My gut feeling is still down at the mo. I don't think that it'll go below 1.60 (although I've not been good at calling the bottom in the past). After that I'm not so sure. It's hard to see, at the moment, how the UK government can put any value back into the £. So that leaves a weakening of the $ as the means to getting a higher rate. This will come eventually but I don't think it'll be huge.
well, once again ML, 3 months further on, your assessment is still bang on. still wobbling around there at the same post freefall 1.75 to 1.80 level,with no real indicators on the horizon for any major change there.
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Old Jan 21st 2010, 8:23 pm
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Pound plunged 2 cents overnight but fortunately is back up to 1.79 again thsi morning.

UK borrowing is up again so maybe that was the cause of the plunge?
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Old Jan 27th 2010, 2:21 pm
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

According to the BBC the AU$ is now at 1.806! Is this a recovery for sterling? Who knows, I just like that it's going in the right direction for a few days.
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Old Jan 27th 2010, 2:39 pm
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Default Re: 1.76 Whats happened to Exchange Rate????? Ouch

Originally Posted by 77hil
According to the BBC the AU$ is now at 1.806! Is this a recovery for sterling? Who knows, I just like that it's going in the right direction for a few days.
Not really, it is only back to where it was a day ago after it dipped due to the economic growth figures which whilst at least were positive (at last) were less positive than hoped.
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