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"1 in a 100 year slump"

"1 in a 100 year slump"

Old Jul 31st 2008, 7:12 am
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Default "1 in a 100 year slump"

Bloomberg headline this a.m. "Oz faces a 1 in a 100 year house price slump".
Good news for those facing Perth's 300% house price rise over the last 6 years....kinda compensates for the fact I can only get offers in the UK 18% lower than valued this April. No doubt prices are coming down in the outer Perth 'burbs big time. Only central seems to be holding its own (ooo err!). Watch this space !!
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Old Jul 31st 2008, 7:56 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Blah Blah...

Heres another one :

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in July by the most in almost two decades as banks reined in lending to potential buyers and the economy edged closer to a recession.

About 1.7 million U.K. homeowners are likely to see the value of their houses fall below the amount they owe on their mortgage, Standard & Poor's said yesterday. Consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in at least 18 years this month, GfK NOP said in a separate report today.

Mortgage lenders stung by the credit-market rout have exacerbated the property downturn by raising borrowing costs. The rate on a home loan fixed for two years rose to 6.63 percent in June, the highest since February 2000, the Bank of England said July 9.


So not so great for anyone trying to sell your house in the UK and enjoy some lower housing costs here then.
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Old Jul 31st 2008, 8:02 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Centurion


So not so great for anyone trying to sell your house in the UK and enjoy some lower housing costs here then.
Not bad for those with money in the bank though
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Old Jul 31st 2008, 8:21 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Centurion
Blah Blah...

Heres another one :

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in July by the most in almost two decades as banks reined in lending to potential buyers and the economy edged closer to a recession.

About 1.7 million U.K. homeowners are likely to see the value of their houses fall below the amount they owe on their mortgage, Standard & Poor's said yesterday. Consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in at least 18 years this month, GfK NOP said in a separate report today.

Mortgage lenders stung by the credit-market rout have exacerbated the property downturn by raising borrowing costs. The rate on a home loan fixed for two years rose to 6.63 percent in June, the highest since February 2000, the Bank of England said July 9.


So not so great for anyone trying to sell your house in the UK and enjoy some lower housing costs here then.
Well I reckon I'll lose less in the UK than I'll gain in Oz. Sell for less in the UK than I woulda got a year ago....sit in rented for a year or more in Oz as the prices drop (even more than the UK), then buy. And have money in the bank too !!
All we need now is for the pound to rally against the Oz$. Not holding my breath on that one (yet!).
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Old Jul 31st 2008, 3:18 pm
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by BATS666
Bloomberg headline this a.m. "Oz faces a 1 in a 100 year house price slump".
Good news for those facing Perth's 300% house price rise over the last 6 years....kinda compensates for the fact I can only get offers in the UK 18% lower than valued this April. No doubt prices are coming down in the outer Perth 'burbs big time. Only central seems to be holding its own (ooo err!). Watch this space !!

300% (((CORRECTION TIME))) And a lot of it was caused by cash wealding
immigrants from were ??

India No
Poland No
USA No
Interstate Some
UK yes

Sorry it was not me it was GMTV thay told me to

I was taken in by the wanted down under crap
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Old Jul 31st 2008, 3:29 pm
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Hotton
300% (((CORRECTION TIME))) And a lot of it was caused by cash wealding
immigrants from were ??

India No
Poland No
USA No
Interstate Some
UK yes

Sorry it was not me it was GMTV thay told me to

I was taken in by the wanted down under crap
....and an awful lot more by investors from Perth, east coast Oz and Asia. How many Perthites now own several properties ?? hmmmm
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 2:26 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Hotton
300% (((CORRECTION TIME))) And a lot of it was caused by cash wealding
immigrants from were ??

India No
Poland No
USA No
Interstate Some
UK yes

Sorry it was not me it was GMTV thay told me to

I was taken in by the wanted down under crap
I think you will find the large majority of property investors are Asian, specifically China and Hong Kong.

There is also a significant investment from the UAE.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 5:20 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Mr Grumpy
I think you will find the large majority of property investors are Asian, specifically China and Hong Kong.

There is also a significant investment from the UAE.
Remember though foreign investment is limited and has to be applied for here. You cant just rock up with some Yen and buy a place. I believe that prevents the majority being foreign held by non PR and citizens.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 6:19 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by BATS666
Bloomberg headline this a.m. "Oz faces a 1 in a 100 year house price slump".
Good news for those facing Perth's 300% house price rise over the last 6 years....kinda compensates for the fact I can only get offers in the UK 18% lower than valued this April. No doubt prices are coming down in the outer Perth 'burbs big time. Only central seems to be holding its own (ooo err!). Watch this space !!
Seems like people from the UK have been spreading their negative equity sins across the world.

Cheap houses are good news to some people.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:14 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by Centurion
Remember though foreign investment is limited and has to be applied for here. You cant just rock up with some Yen and buy a place. I believe that prevents the majority being foreign held by non PR and citizens.
...but when you have so much new build in and around Perth, that's where the foreign investors can buy. It's no co-incidence that Mandurah became the most expensive place to live in Oz (and the world). With the canal and marina developments being snapped up by foreign investors and pushing the prices up even further. Remember when an Asian investor spotted a canal property he liked (that wasn't even for sale) and offered TWICE the likely sale price for it, just to get the owners out?!!!
It'll end up like the wee villages in the holiday resorts in the UK (Devon & Cornwall) where the whole place closes down in the winter because over 50% of the homes are second homes and only used 4-6 weeks of the year.
At least immigrants LIVE in the places they buy !!
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:32 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by BATS666
Bloomberg headline this a.m. "Oz faces a 1 in a 100 year house price slump".
Good news for those facing Perth's 300% house price rise over the last 6 years....kinda compensates for the fact I can only get offers in the UK 18% lower than valued this April. No doubt prices are coming down in the outer Perth 'burbs big time. Only central seems to be holding its own (ooo err!). Watch this space !!
This news was out weeks ago, so I'm not sure why Bloomberg are putting it out now. Was it from the archive? Rudd today concedes possibility of recession for Australia which is big news. Also, Pommy house prices down 8.1% in past year, which is approaching formal "crash" definition, Australia soon to follow.

This is because first-world house prices grew too fast at the end of the boom cycle, particularly from 2005 - 2007, when a feeding frenzy driven by cheap credit pushed prices up to at least 30% over their real value. The market always corrects itself, though due to SDS (seller denial syndrome) it won't come down to the bottom until the forced sellers start to add up.

Happy shopping for buyers though, and after it being a sellers' market for the last 15 years, it's about time.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:38 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

amen to that. No it wasn't from the archive, it was yesterday's news on TV & their website -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
I guess if you're selling up in the UK and buying in Oz it's a question of whose house prices fall quicker !! or just dump the UK property asap and sit in rented while u ride out the storm !
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:43 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by BATS666
amen to that. No it wasn't from the archive, it was yesterday's news on TV & their website -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia
I guess if you're selling up in the UK and buying in Oz it's a question of whose house prices fall quicker !! or just dump the UK property asap and sit in rented while u ride out the storm !
Dumping UK property is a good idea unless you plan on returning there. Australia has a problem like the UK though - what to do with rates? Both nations are watching the value of the housing stock fall through the floor. Their answer is to delay the inevitable (housing crash) by cutting rates, but this will allow inflation to get further out of control. And inflation is already too high - in the UK's case it is well above target and I know that Australia's core inflation is at a 17 year high at 4.4%. Rates need to go up to deal with this. So what will they do? Will they cut rates and try and prop up the housing market for another few months and let inflation go through the roof, or will they control inflation and let the housing market go to the wall? Who pulls the strings?

Meanwhile, sellers are in denial, and you can't blame them. I know of a house that was up for sale at £250,000 when an identical house to it on the same street sold at peak for 215k. The owners have just "slashed" the price to 240k. This is absolute and total denial of reality. The house is not worth any more than 195k in today's market, and I would be tempted to say that like many houses right now it's not really worth anything at all (£0) because buyers have just stopped buying to see what happens. This makes properties worth nothing for the time being.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:48 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

There was a report late last year saying that the price of houses here in Aus was out of whack with the GDP and all other indexes and I have been expecting it to crash for a long while.

I worked in legal and property and I could no believe the money that was being thrown at people, all these loans with redraw facility crazy stuff. Now its coming home to roost. People were borrowing for the house adding the four wheel drive and the boat stupid things.

Now the margin calls are in and the upper end housing is also feeling the pinch.

Only upside is migration is so high that there is still demand for housing. That is what has been keeping it going for a few years now.
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Old Aug 1st 2008, 8:49 am
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Default Re: "1 in a 100 year slump"

Originally Posted by 4Margaret
There was a report late last year saying that the price of houses here in Aus was out of whack with the GDP and all other indexes and I have been expecting it to crash for a long while.

I worked in legal and property and I could no believe the money that was being thrown at people, all these loans with redraw facility crazy stuff. Now its coming home to roost. People were borrowing for the house adding the four wheel drive and the boat stupid things.

Now the margin calls are in and the upper end housing is also feeling the pinch.

Only upside is migration is so high that there is still demand for housing. That is what has been keeping it going for a few years now.
Agreed. We were offered mortgages of up to 900k when we arrived a year ago. They were disappointed when we settled on a fraction of that.
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