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***falling Property Prices Throught Australia***

***falling Property Prices Throught Australia***

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Old May 28th 2004, 9:26 am
  #1  
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Default ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Hello all,

It would seem the housing boom in Australia is well and truly over, see the links below to recent reports.

Anyone out there still crazy enough to buy in the near future?


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...61758063.html#

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/...html?from=top5

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=242

Last edited by 65 million; May 28th 2004 at 9:40 am.
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Old May 28th 2004, 10:03 am
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

This article below is related to the last link:

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsArticles1.php?id=57

UNDERSTAND THE PROPERTY ESCALATOR
A renewed warning to homesellers.

UPDATE - March 16: Some homesellers are selling their homes for lower prices than they were offered a few weeks ago. If you are considering an offer on your property, please consider the comments in this article.

The property market is like an escalator. Sometimes it goes up – as it has recently. And sometimes it goes down. In different areas, it may move at different speeds, even in different directions. One area may be falling while others are still rising. Sometimes the escalator stops.

In some areas, right now, the escalator is moving down. Other areas are sure to follow.

In September, a couple in the Melbourne suburb of Essendon auctioned their home. The highest bid was $360,000. Not good enough. Last week they received an offer of $340,000. Uh-oh.

In the Sydney suburb of Denistone a home was passed in at auction on September 25. It was later advertised for $700,000. Today, it is down to $680,000. If it doesn’t sell, tomorrow it could be advertised for $660,000.

These are just two of many cases being reported now – mostly it’s the middle to upper priced suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne (at the moment).

In these areas, homesellers are starting to find it tough to get the prices they expected to get. Some are getting edgy. The offers they rejected a few weeks ago are now looking like good offers. Unfortunately those offers are gone. The buyers have bought something else. “If only we’d taken that early offer,� they moan. It’s the old cliché about the wisdom of hindsight.

Although the frenzy is fading and homes are taking longer to sell, many sellers are still confident – at least outwardly. One echoed a typical comment, “We are prepared to wait to get our price.�

Okay, but for those who decide to wait, there’s a question they should ask – How long will we have to wait?

Well, instead of hindsight, let’s use foresight.

Westpac has now joined the chorus of experts who believe property prices are 20 per cent overvalued. Although no one likes to say it, it’s fairly obvious what this means. Prices may be going down. It has happened before – many times. The last time it happened – or started to happen – a lot of sellers ignored the signals and paid a terrible price. They said the same thing, “If we can’t get the price we want, we’ll wait.� And wait they did.

If you owned a home in Melbourne in 1991 and you decided to wait for that great price your neighbours had sold for, you’d have waited seven years. That’s if you didn’t crack under the strain. Back then, a seller in the Melbourne suburb of Greenvale wanted $350,000. He rejected an offer of $320,000. Six months – and several agents later, when he was desperate, he sold for $260,000.

It happens at the end of every boom. Go back to the eighties in Sydney. If you rejected a great offer in 1981, you’d also have waited seven years to get a similar offer.

The trickiest time to be selling property is when the property escalator starts going down. This is the time when the offer you get today is often higher than the one you’ll get tomorrow. However, based on the prices you may have seen other homes selling for, today’s offer may seem low. But tomorrow the offer may be lower still. Weeks may pass – and nothing happens. You live in hope. But it’s a false hope, because the escalator is on the way down. The longer you wait, the lower your price. You may wait years.

So, how do you know if you should sell? And for what price? Or, should you wait? It depends on your personal circumstances. What you want to do with your life is the most important factor you should consider.

If you have to sell, be careful you don’t make the mistake of following the escalator down in price.

Typically, here’s what many sellers do when the property escalator starts going down. They reject an early offer. And then, if they don’t get another offer, they start to become a tad anxious. Although they are not desperate – not yet, anyway – they realise they may have to lower their asking price. Not too much, just a little. They may lower the asking price by say $10,000. Often, however, the market prices have dropped by more than $10,000.

And so they start to follow the escalator down in price – always one step behind . The market price may fall by $20,000. They lower their price by $10,000. The market price falls again. And then they lower their price again. Too late. They are following the escalator down. It’s a costly mistake.

While their new asking price may seem low to them – they are still above the level to which the market has fallen. And on it goes, down, down, down.

Finally, the sellers are desperate. They have to sell immediately. But their home, having been on the market for several weeks, even months – and often with several agents – is stale. Everyone wonders what’s wrong with it. Stale properties and desperate sellers. It’s a recipe for financial disaster.

One of the worst examples of ignoring the property escalator was a home which came for sale at the end of the last boom. The sellers wanted $690,000. It was a hugely optimistic price. Way too much. The home was worth closer to $500,000. The sellers expected the property escalator to keep going up. But it was going down. They rejected several early offers. Months passed. Then they began to lower their asking price. But never enough to catch the best price. They kept rejecting offers and then, a few weeks later, they would lower their asking price again - always below the offers they had received earlier. Finally, in desperation, they were forced to accept the ridiculous price of $360,000. Their stubbornness cost them about $150,000.

The property escalator is tricky. When it’s moving down, it’s hard to accept that your gorgeous home is worth less than the shocker up the road that sold for a whopping price a few months ago.

But that shocker sold at yesterday’s prices. Today’s prices are not the same as yesterday’s prices.

When the escalator is moving down, it means tomorrow’s prices will not be as high as today’s prices. If you get an offer today, it may be the best you’ll get for many a day. If that offer enables you to sell – and get on with your life, seriously consider it. Perhaps, if you are buying again, you’ll be paying less – so it will all work out okay.

In Sydney’s Balmain a home has just sold for $965,000. A few weeks ago, the owners rejected an offer of $989,000. When they realised that the property escalator was moving down, they quickly grabbed the $965,000. That was today’s price. Tomorrow it may be lower.

If you hold out for yesterday’s price, you could be waiting for a lot of tomorrows.

You could be waiting years.
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Old May 28th 2004, 10:14 am
  #3  
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Default Anyone out there still crazy enough to buy in the near future?

I have no idea at all about property

could someone explain the following senario to me:

say I get visa

I have the deposit on say a $400,000 unit in Sydney(lets say price had fallen by 30-40k)

I can afford the mortgage repayments etc

Surely long term it would be a good investment once I am looking for a place to actully live in for the long term

what are the downsides to this?The way i read it -it seems like a good investment as eventually (say over a ten year period)as price will eventually rise again

(please no p*ss take i honestly think it is a great situation for a firt time buyer)
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Old May 28th 2004, 10:21 am
  #4  
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

My eyes are glued to this for weeks. I bought my property over a year ago. And by comparing to recent sales in my area, my property has gone down by 8% since the last time I bought.

That's it!!! I will call my agent and ask him to sell my property.

%$#, *&$%, $##@!!!

NOBODY tells me anything last year that things turn bad now! It's all my own fault. I should have waited and not too overly worried when I saw the price went up like mad.

Originally posted by sembonor
This article below is related to the last link:

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsArticles1.php?id=57

UNDERSTAND THE PROPERTY ESCALATOR
A renewed warning to homesellers.

UPDATE - March 16: Some homesellers are selling their homes for lower prices than they were offered a few weeks ago. If you are considering an offer on your property, please consider the comments in this article.

The property market is like an escalator. Sometimes it goes up – as it has recently. And sometimes it goes down. In different areas, it may move at different speeds, even in different directions. One area may be falling while others are still rising. Sometimes the escalator stops.

In some areas, right now, the escalator is moving down. Other areas are sure to follow.

In September, a couple in the Melbourne suburb of Essendon auctioned their home. The highest bid was $360,000. Not good enough. Last week they received an offer of $340,000. Uh-oh.

In the Sydney suburb of Denistone a home was passed in at auction on September 25. It was later advertised for $700,000. Today, it is down to $680,000. If it doesn’t sell, tomorrow it could be advertised for $660,000.

These are just two of many cases being reported now – mostly it’s the middle to upper priced suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne (at the moment).

In these areas, homesellers are starting to find it tough to get the prices they expected to get. Some are getting edgy. The offers they rejected a few weeks ago are now looking like good offers. Unfortunately those offers are gone. The buyers have bought something else. “If only we’d taken that early offer,� they moan. It’s the old cliché about the wisdom of hindsight.

Although the frenzy is fading and homes are taking longer to sell, many sellers are still confident – at least outwardly. One echoed a typical comment, “We are prepared to wait to get our price.�

Okay, but for those who decide to wait, there’s a question they should ask – How long will we have to wait?

Well, instead of hindsight, let’s use foresight.

Westpac has now joined the chorus of experts who believe property prices are 20 per cent overvalued. Although no one likes to say it, it’s fairly obvious what this means. Prices may be going down. It has happened before – many times. The last time it happened – or started to happen – a lot of sellers ignored the signals and paid a terrible price. They said the same thing, “If we can’t get the price we want, we’ll wait.� And wait they did.

If you owned a home in Melbourne in 1991 and you decided to wait for that great price your neighbours had sold for, you’d have waited seven years. That’s if you didn’t crack under the strain. Back then, a seller in the Melbourne suburb of Greenvale wanted $350,000. He rejected an offer of $320,000. Six months – and several agents later, when he was desperate, he sold for $260,000.

It happens at the end of every boom. Go back to the eighties in Sydney. If you rejected a great offer in 1981, you’d also have waited seven years to get a similar offer.

The trickiest time to be selling property is when the property escalator starts going down. This is the time when the offer you get today is often higher than the one you’ll get tomorrow. However, based on the prices you may have seen other homes selling for, today’s offer may seem low. But tomorrow the offer may be lower still. Weeks may pass – and nothing happens. You live in hope. But it’s a false hope, because the escalator is on the way down. The longer you wait, the lower your price. You may wait years.

So, how do you know if you should sell? And for what price? Or, should you wait? It depends on your personal circumstances. What you want to do with your life is the most important factor you should consider.

If you have to sell, be careful you don’t make the mistake of following the escalator down in price.

Typically, here’s what many sellers do when the property escalator starts going down. They reject an early offer. And then, if they don’t get another offer, they start to become a tad anxious. Although they are not desperate – not yet, anyway – they realise they may have to lower their asking price. Not too much, just a little. They may lower the asking price by say $10,000. Often, however, the market prices have dropped by more than $10,000.

And so they start to follow the escalator down in price – always one step behind . The market price may fall by $20,000. They lower their price by $10,000. The market price falls again. And then they lower their price again. Too late. They are following the escalator down. It’s a costly mistake.

While their new asking price may seem low to them – they are still above the level to which the market has fallen. And on it goes, down, down, down.

Finally, the sellers are desperate. They have to sell immediately. But their home, having been on the market for several weeks, even months – and often with several agents – is stale. Everyone wonders what’s wrong with it. Stale properties and desperate sellers. It’s a recipe for financial disaster.

One of the worst examples of ignoring the property escalator was a home which came for sale at the end of the last boom. The sellers wanted $690,000. It was a hugely optimistic price. Way too much. The home was worth closer to $500,000. The sellers expected the property escalator to keep going up. But it was going down. They rejected several early offers. Months passed. Then they began to lower their asking price. But never enough to catch the best price. They kept rejecting offers and then, a few weeks later, they would lower their asking price again - always below the offers they had received earlier. Finally, in desperation, they were forced to accept the ridiculous price of $360,000. Their stubbornness cost them about $150,000.

The property escalator is tricky. When it’s moving down, it’s hard to accept that your gorgeous home is worth less than the shocker up the road that sold for a whopping price a few months ago.

But that shocker sold at yesterday’s prices. Today’s prices are not the same as yesterday’s prices.

When the escalator is moving down, it means tomorrow’s prices will not be as high as today’s prices. If you get an offer today, it may be the best you’ll get for many a day. If that offer enables you to sell – and get on with your life, seriously consider it. Perhaps, if you are buying again, you’ll be paying less – so it will all work out okay.

In Sydney’s Balmain a home has just sold for $965,000. A few weeks ago, the owners rejected an offer of $989,000. When they realised that the property escalator was moving down, they quickly grabbed the $965,000. That was today’s price. Tomorrow it may be lower.

If you hold out for yesterday’s price, you could be waiting for a lot of tomorrows.

You could be waiting years.
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Old May 28th 2004, 10:39 am
  #5  
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Default Re: Anyone out there still crazy enough to buy in the near future?

Originally posted by seang
I have no idea at all about property

could someone explain the following senario to me:

say I get visa

I have the deposit on say a $400,000 unit in Sydney(lets say price had fallen by 30-40k)

I can afford the mortgage repayments etc

Surely long term it would be a good investment once I am looking for a place to actully live in for the long term

what are the downsides to this?The way i read it -it seems like a good investment as eventually (say over a ten year period)as price will eventually rise again

(please no p*ss take i honestly think it is a great situation for a firt time buyer)
You are absolutely right seang. The article is looking at it mainly from the perspective of the seller. The buyer in Greenvale, Melbourne for example picked up a bargain! The age old advice has always been to buy when the market comes off a boom and if you can manage it, to not sell during the same part of the cycle.

I am always dubious of the sweeping generalisations that headlines like 'property prices are falling throughout the whole country' generates. The article goes on to say that it is like an escalator with it moving up in some areas and moving down in others, not the same everywhere. I follow Melbourne prices closely and median prices are not falling in all 300+ suburbs at the moment, they are rising and rising sharply in quite a lot. Also, the slump is more noticeable in particular housing types than others - the buy to let market being one of the hardest hit. People will always pay for location, location, location.

What a scenario though for soon to be migrants - mid $2.50's rather than low $2.30's E/R and if you pick wisely there are property bargains to be had when you get there. And if you take a sufficiently long term view, who cares what the market was doing for a comparatively short period of time anyway?

OzTennis
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Old May 28th 2004, 10:45 am
  #6  
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Originally posted by sembonor
One of the worst examples of ignoring the property escalator was a home which came for sale at the end of the last boom. The sellers wanted $690,000. It was a hugely optimistic price. Way too much. The home was worth closer to $500,000. The sellers expected the property escalator to keep going up. But it was going down. They rejected several early offers. Months passed. Then they began to lower their asking price. But never enough to catch the best price. They kept rejecting offers and then, a few weeks later, they would lower their asking price again - always below the offers they had received earlier. Finally, in desperation, they were forced to accept the ridiculous price of $360,000. Their stubbornness cost them about $150,000.
If that was an investment property, then yes they lost $150,000?
However, if it was a house they lived in, and they were selling so they could buy another, there could be a different scenario.....
They first wanted to sell at $690,000, maybe they wanted to upgrade to a $750,000 property. So they were about spend another $60k for the new house.
But the prices dropped by 48% from $690k to $360k
However the new house would also have dropped 48% to $390,000
Result: Now they only had to pay an extra $30K to get the house, that was going to cost them $60k extra
OR, they could still pay the extra $60k, and upgrade to an even better house, which would have cost $805,000 at the original point.

So this "worst case example" could well have been a very good result for them ?

Remember though, this only works for residential, single property owners, not investors, or first home buyers.

a different perspective
 
Old May 28th 2004, 10:50 am
  #7  
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Default Re: Anyone out there still crazy enough to buy in the near future?

Originally posted by OzTennis
You are absolutely right seang. OzTennis
phew -thanks OZT(long time no talk)

I know from a friend in Bondi he lost apacket on his unit -sold 3 weeks ago for 6 figures sum less than valuation that was made in Jan(granted it is a high end unit)

Now just wish Dimia could give me a visa so I could possible make a first step on the peoperty ladder.

rgds
S
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Old May 28th 2004, 11:18 am
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Hi all
we are hoping to go to Geelong in July/ August, do you have any insight to the house prices there?
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Old May 28th 2004, 11:22 am
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Originally posted by bryoak
Hi all
we are hoping to go to Geelong in July/ August, do you have any insight to the house prices there?
Here are some properties For Sale in Geelong at the moment.
Not sure what has happened in the market in that area.
 
Old May 28th 2004, 11:52 am
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Originally posted by bryoak
Hi all
we are hoping to go to Geelong in July/ August, do you have any insight to the house prices there?
Try domain.com.au and realestate.com.au both allow you to enter 'Geelong' in the suburb, you enter your property type and current properties come up for sale. Both also have 'suburb snapshots' which give you information about Geelong. You might also be able to get auction results, house sale prices etc for free but you might have to pay for them. It must be said that you will get 'like for like' a good deal cheaper in Geelong than most areas of Melbourne - for similar reasons to why London prices are higher than the surrounding area. Good luck!

OzTennis
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Old May 28th 2004, 1:48 pm
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Thanks a lot for that, having a good time looking at them. The only problem is once you start looking you just go and see what you could get for a bit more than your budget, and then a bit more again!! There are some really nice houses just not to sure about areas yet. Depends where the jobs are i suppose.

Darren & Rhian
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Old May 28th 2004, 1:57 pm
  #12  
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Originally posted by ABCDiamond
If that was an investment property, then yes they lost $150,000?
However, if it was a house they lived in, and they were selling so they could buy another, there could be a different scenario.....
They first wanted to sell at $690,000, maybe they wanted to upgrade to a $750,000 property. So they were about spend another $60k for the new house.
But the prices dropped by 48% from $690k to $360k
However the new house would also have dropped 48% to $390,000
Result: Now they only had to pay an extra $30K to get the house, that was going to cost them $60k extra
OR, they could still pay the extra $60k, and upgrade to an even better house, which would have cost $805,000 at the original point.

So this "worst case example" could well have been a very good result for them ?

Remember though, this only works for residential, single property owners, not investors, or first home buyers.

a different perspective
The only flaw in your reasoning is that, as they said, the property was in fact only worth around $500k to start with, not $690k - ie they had overvalued it. Your figures dont quite add up then .
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Old May 28th 2004, 2:01 pm
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Originally posted by bryoak
Thanks a lot for that, having a good time looking at them. The only problem is once you start looking you just go and see what you could get for a bit more than your budget, and then a bit more again!! There are some really nice houses just not to sure about areas yet. Depends where the jobs are i suppose.

Darren & Rhian
Probably similar to Melbourne in a way - the closer you get to the water the higher the prices are and vice-versa. Eastern Beach is considered the most desirable part of Geelong by most, particularly if you are right on the water and the adjoining areas - towards Corio for example are popular. I don't want to offend anyone but Norlane and much of Corio on the approaches from Melbourne (Ford factory, Pilkington glass, refinery, wharf areas etc) IMHO is best avoided. I don't know the 'other side' of Geelong too well but played tennis many a time at the Geelong club near the Barwon River and Belmont where it is seems quite a good area.

OzTennis
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Old May 28th 2004, 2:07 pm
  #14  
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Default Re: ***falling Property Prices Throughout Australia***

Cheers for that, i have e-mailed a few estate agents and asked them about areas etc. I will see what they come up with. It could be the job opportunities rather than 'location location location'.
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Old May 28th 2004, 2:13 pm
  #15  
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65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice65 million is just really nice
Default future bargains to be had!

I think once these falling prices gather momentum, this will spook "property investors" and force them to sell hence the fall will get bigger and bigger, short term wise this is going to be painful.

GOING DOWN, DOWN, DOWN!
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