OzTennis

No, your analysis is a bit on the umm over-simplistic side - exchange rates are affected by so many things and at different times. It's not economic theories changing it's determing factors changing i.e. it is possible for the GBP/AUD exchange rate to be affected at one time by world oil prices, at other times by GFC, at other times by changes in interest rates, at other times by forecasts for the Chinese economy, at other times by Governor Glenn Stevens pronouncements, at other times by Governor Mark Carney's pronouncements .............. ad infinitum. In the last few months it's what's been happening in the US, pronouncements by the Fed and easing of money printing as well as Stevens wishing to 'talk the dollar down' which have been the overwhelming factors.

Trends are also important. 1 example - UK unemployment is 7.4%, Australian unemployment rate is 5.8%. BUT, UK unemployment was expected to be 7.6% and Australian unemployment rate is up from 5.7% so UK's figures are 'good' news and Australia's figures are 'bad' news.

Go back and list GDP growth figures for UK and Australia for say 5 years. UK has been a basket case but Australia has been one of the least GFC affected major economies so very good growth figures. Coming off such a flat base UK is now showing good growth.

Some analysis here if you want more than soundbites:

http://www.futurecurrencyforecast.co...-rebound/23295

Grayling

It is not my analysis....I was being sarcastic.

It was what some of the smartarses were saying on here whilst gloating about the 'demise' of the UK.

Beoz

No need to take the suggested demise of the UK as a personal insult. They were saying that about the US too. And if they thought clearly enough Australia usually hits trouble 2 or 3 years after the rest of the world.

Tramps_mate

Gutting for those of us trying to send $ back to £ though..

chris955

Thats the thing about exchange rates, they will only ever suit one side at a time. Its still pretty good coming this way at the moment, I do still think it will get close to 2:1.

BadgeIsBack

Bit defensive are we?
People who even had any inkling about what was going on always talked about the US...particularly more recently measured in years.

Loch Lomond

No they didn't. Do a search on any threads related to the strength of the AUD to the UKP and you will see that the BE Economists quite happily talked down the UKP. I've posted on this before.

BadgeIsBack

Hang on are we talking about the direction of the GBP or
the cause, or even about the health of the economy?I know G is grumbling about anything that reports the Uk economy in a poor light preferring to talk about his family's finances
rather than micro or macro economics.

I do know that for years people observed the fall of the Gbp and so it came to pass..and it's finally improving.
I of course don't credit this fall to Be...much of the talk was the reflection of what was happening..gleaned from secondary sources.

I do know people have mentioned the Us a lot recently as a cause and indeed a factor, and the Us has often been mentioned by lots of people on Be.

Beoz

Man this dollar keeps rising. Good as I want to send some dollars to the UK, bad as I thought it was on the eternal slide.

Unemployment figures came out lower than expected today and its gone off for another climb again.

GarryP

I have faith that Hockey will screw things up. Even though the general economy seems to be looking up - he's still talking up the idea of a slash'n'burn budget. Nothing like some major unforced job losses and austerity budget for spooking the markets.

Amazulu

It's a funny time at the moment

Is the US recovering or is it smoke and mirrors? USD says later. Same for the UK

Australia is doing okay - just okay but nothing to really boost the AUD so much

Commodity prices are not collapsing - which is always going to support the AUD

Beoz

Said like a good lefty

commonwealth

thank god my US dollars came in yesterday...
i was hoping for it to come in weeks ago

GarryP

Seem to have to keep pointing out I'm not a left winger - I'm just not a far right winger.

And has Hockey ever convinced you of his sure footed, sober, understanding of macroeconomics and demand led growth?

commonwealth

Keynesians vs Classicals