MarkRD

I don't know if this has been discussed here or on any other EU country forums, but as Cameron and the Tories are back in (stronger than before), it looks as if the EU referendum will go ahead and so we run the risk of becoming extracomunitari.

What are the chances? Discuss.

Garbatellamike

A very good question Mark - I think it will depend on how pragmatic the other European leaders are in agreeing to give Cameron some "wins" to help him change the perception of Uk's relationship with Europe.

If the proponents of "The European Project" continue to insist the only answer to evey question is their "More Europe" dogma then we are probably in trouble and destined to become extracomunitari.

Cameron, for sure, will have to have a referendum (electoral suicide otherwise methinks) and he will need the EU to agree to a few attractive sounding changes that create the perception of tranforming the UK relationship with the EU.

It is going to be tricky methinks and too difficult to call how it will turn out at this early stage.

What happens in Greece in the next few weeks will could also have a profound effect on what the EU of the future might look like.

HADENOUGHPIZZA

First they need to organise and win a referendum , then work out how to do it . I thisnk we are safe for a while yet .

Garbatellamike

yep and it seems that Osborne is going to be doing the negotiations..........

garfagnino

Well, imo from here (UK) is that, yes, Cameron will have to keep his promise on a referendum - sometime, I think he's more worried by Nicola Sturgeon at the moment! The tories are business orientated, most of their supporters are business people from all areas of trade who wish to continue with EU membership and trading. I think that Camerons' real reason (amongst other) for the referendum is to use it as a 'bargaining chip' to pressurise acceptance to changes he wants to make in the UK/EU relationship and terms of membership. However, the referendum could be a close run thing, judging by the support UKIP has achieved for getting out of the EU both in the previous Euro MPs' election and again in the general election (ok, they only got 1 MP, but they had over 4 million votes and came second in a lot of areas beating Labour and the Lib Dems). The probable outcome will be that a NO vote to leaving the EU will win by a moderate margin (presuming it's a straight yes/no voting ballot) and the UK will get some acceptable concessions after a bit of 'horse trading'.

themajor

Cameron is not bothered one iota about Sturgeon. Crikey she is not even an MP.

Garbatellamike

I tend to agree, and there are only 50 something of her MPs in a 650 seat chamber. Did you see the daggers she was glaring at Cameron during the remembrance ceremony? She must be gutted that even with her landslide in Scotland she still has no real influence over overall UK politics.

themajor

Yes I did notice the daggers she was giving Cameron. With a full cabinet now in power and a full house of Conservatives there is very little room for the scottish MP's to manoeuvre.

highlander1

Well, the relationship with Europe could fast track to confrontation with the Commission and Mogherini and her pals in relation to distributing immigrant from Libya to all EU countries.
That will be the first test for Cameron and possibly shape how the renegotiations may succeed.

themajor

Agree entirely. Allthough the figures being bandid about are not a huge amount for the UK, when compared to the rest of Europe.

highlander1

I think is the principle of it, not the number in itself.
Mogherini declared that ''no one will be repatriated against their will '' which must be one of the most stupid statement ever made by a politician..of course nobody would want to be sent back after that journey and all the money spent to pay the people traffickers !

ononno

Probably a lot depends on how the new cabinet handles the refugee/immigration issue. A very thorny one. But whether in or out of the EU I doubt we would become 'extracommunitari'. Would more likely be an association agreement type Norway or Switzerland already have.
I started off here as an 'extracommunitario' anyway, but found ways round it.
bye bye dicette l'inglese

MarkRD

Good to hear your opinions.

I was thinking about getting Italian citizenship anyway .. at least I would get to vote in a general election!

Garbatellamike

You will have 2 or 3 years to do deal with the burocrazia needed to become Italian before the referendum take splace. Therefore, best you start immediately and then there will be a 30% chance it will be done in time

MarkRD

Sound advice.