Garbatellamike

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-24746539

Someone tell me they are making it up

Pipistrelli

Well, it's certainly a lot more complicated than the several paragraphs the BBC news article contains!!!

Of course if you take the total global wine production figure, compare it to a global consumer demand figure and find demand is higher you have the simplistic answer of a ''shortage''. But wine don't really work like that per se... and neither is a global market that simplistic!!

What it does simplistically mean is: if your hobby is buying 10 cases of, for example, Chateau Le Pin every vintage released, over the years you will be likely increasingly struggling to fulfill your 10 case requirement, if you ever have managed and if you aren't living in China!

But it doesn't mean going to buy wine and not be able to find any, anywhere, unless Yellowstone blows, some other such global catastrophe or vine pestilence rages.

Australia in the 2000s produced more than they had demand for which lead to all sorts of problems for them, very bad wine making practices and very bad wine. From which they are only just starting to recover. Their reputation is still on the mend though.

If you hold the thought that your favourite wine is (hopefully ) a finely balanced agricultural product which is not infinite in supply and rather than get shirty when the current vintage runs out, accept it and find a different wine to fill the temporary gap - you be fine!

SirTK

But the problem is real, will continue and will worsen.

The Chinese and Russians are relatively new to drinking wine in any great quantity, so it's obvious that there will be shortfalls, only exacerbated by still increasing demand in more mature markets like e.g. USA and UK.

When did we last hear about the European wine lake? Even in the face of massively increased production in Chile, Argentina, New Zealand over the past 20 years, the increasing global consumption is bound to overtake production capacity.

Lovers of good wine should enjoy it while we can; the shortages will only lead to price increases as wholesalers sell to the highest bidder. The saving grace is that New World is still the "in thing" - long may that continue as it takes a little bit of the pressure off demand for French and Italian wines.

Pipistrelli

It isn't real though! Especially not in the in the way it's being reported. It just isn't real. And I'm really quite upset with the BBC pouncing on this story in the way they have. I expect no less from the Daily scaremongering Mail but I do expect more from the BBC who now seem to have pushed the most sensible of people into believing this story.

Firstly a few things:

1) Morgan Stanley are, according to them, ''a global financial services firm and a market leader in securities, asset management and credit services''. So, they deal with statistics.. figures... investment cash.. ''imaginary'' cash... and more than likely a bit of real cash thrown their way to produce their reports in the way they've done. They know barely anything to absolutely nothing about the wine industry.

2) As I said before, their data is grossly misleading.

3) We haven't heard about the great European Wine Lake for quite some time, really since 2004, because the EU has, thankfully, been taking useful steps to drain the wine lake that has been plaguing it for donkey's years. Wine surplus (as I hugely simplified in my previous post with Australia as the example) is not a good thing.

4) Yes China, and actually the USA (Russia to some extent) are increasing their consumption of wine. China's demand is rising on an average 15% per year BUT and this is a big BUT... China (and the US) who are the largest growing consumers, are also the countries growing as producers. China is one of the biggest emerging producers in the world. China is the 6th biggest grower of grapevines AND they still have no shortage of available land. Chateau Lafite have ventured into China..

5) Don't underestimate the command the French have on the global wine market. If France has a short harvest (as in 2012) it dominates the headlines. There was a time when Bordeaux vintage ratings fluctuated. Since probably around 2005 according to France, all the vintages have been better than the last.

6) Yes, the rising demand for fine wine -mainly from China - is pushing the prices up BUT that's what a market is!! Demand rises, it increases that products worth... demand falls the prices fall. This happens with any and every market not just wine. It also isn't a recent occurrence as seems to be being suggested. China have been steadily snapping up fine wine from Bordeaux (and whisky from Scotland) for a fair good years. It doesn't mean though that it's all panic stations and so this point shouldn't be anywhere near their report.

7) At the moment reliable sources are suggesting the 2013 harvest to be bigger than 2012, almost everywhere.



So I really, really stress again the report is rubbish and there is no need to panic that this problem is real.

In my professional opinion Felix Salmon from Reuters has written a very good counter article a couple of days ago. Do read it. http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...wine-shortage/
If you fancy getting really down and geeky here is what the International Organisation of Vine and Wine are saying are saying about 2013 http://www.oiv.int/oiv/info/enpoint2013?lang=en