6000

Pablo - I don't know. It was a genuine question.
I do, however, believe that crime is over-reported in the SA press in comparison with other countries. Sure - it is a problem - I'm certainly not denying that. But as I keep saying, I think that the public perception of crime means that the crime situation is blown out of all proportion.

Perhaps it is, yes. I don't have the figures for "central" New York in front of me. I went back and looked in the Cape Times just now: almost 30% of all the murders in the CPT metropole occurred in Nyanga and Gugulethu. If one were looking at the data scientifically, one couldn't include those areas and still obtain a meaningful average for the city. (And I should know - I'm a scientist!). Of course, they occur, they shouldn't, it's a huge problem - yes. But they sway the data horrendously.
That said, even with those data included, the murder rate in the Western Cape (which has murder rates 150% of the national average) is still lower than, for example, Washington DC.


Agreed - terrible. Look - I'm not saying crime isn't a problem - it obviously is. I just don't understand:

1. The hysteria of the situation. Yes - 40 people murdered per 100,000 per year in SA. So that's 99,960 that aren't. Do the maths. Which group are you likely to be in (especially if you avoid places like Nyanga and Gugulethu)?

2. People who come onto forums like this simply to bad-mouth this country. But I will never understand that. I think it says more about the individuals than the problem.
There are a plethora of good news stories out there too - but you only have to look at the "Lonely Planet rates Cape Town Best Tourist Destination" thread to see how desperate some people are to pull them apart.

All I'm suggesting is a more measured, more balanced approach.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whalewatcher

Food poisoning?

Tourist food poisoning capital of the world = China. Lethal. 25% of travellers to China end up with food poisoning.
I remember that from my Oxford days!

6000

Oh, I'm sure I heard a peep!

No. Not neccessarily so, but it illustrates my point that while crime is localised, even in the hotspots, the chances are massively weighted in my favour that I would be ok. Like I said - it's all about perceptions.

(And I am ok - done my business there and returned safely - thanks for your concern).

whalewatcher

Certainly a reductionist! Missing the wood for the trees perhaps...all that GIS number-crunching

Daxk

When did Cape Town declare itself a Republic?
Wiki gives CT a Population of 2.95m ,
New York City 19,000 odd and Washington 536,000 odd

6000

I prefer "realist".

Seriously guys - I'm not here to make any enemies; I'm not denying that crime is a huge problem in SA. Just that more often than not, the figures and incidents are misrepresented and over-reported by the press and therefore taken as rote by the gullible public.
Let's face it - bloke doesn't get attacked/mugged/murdered is no news - who is going to report that?
"Asian doctor doesn't crash burning car into airport." That's happened millions of times in the last 6 months, but as soon as one does:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/6257388.stm

OK - extreme example, but you see my point.

6000

Not sure I get your point?
Was reading the crime stats for the Western Cape in a local newspaper - hence my Cape-centric approach.
But since the stats are higher (worse) here than the national average, then using that national average would certainly further support my arguments.

New York has a population of 19,000?

And since my figures (and those for the foreign cities I mentioned) were rates per 100,000, does size matter?

Daxk

6000, I was commenting on population densities and demographics.
Your take that by removing murders occurring in poorer communities and then putting that against New York City and Washingtons ENTIRE populations.
Comparing Apples with Apples you would need to exclude the poorer sections there as well, which unfortunately means the Black and Hispanics which comprise a large proportion of those communities.
and then compare.

Pablo

I think that is why so many South Africans tend to rely more on what has happened within their own circle of direct knowledge - to themselves, their family, and their friends - rather than what they read in the press.

Distrust of the media has always been high in SA, and perceptions are not helped by a government which suppresses the crime stats when they are inconvenient.

If I think of friends of mine who have left, or are planning to leave, their leaving is not brought about by what they read in the papers, but by what has happened to them personally.

...But I'd add that I disagree strongly with the comment that 'it's all about perception'. That is spin-doctor talk, and puts me in mind of that equally weaselish and dishonest phrase that 'perception is reality'. People should strive to perceive what is true and real, and not deceive themselves. Those who prefer to wallow in a warm bath of self-deception deserve all they get.

Pablo

6000

Agreed, but then I did correct that:


Those are overall figures for both cities.

whalewatcher

A 'realist' would make some allowance for people's emotional reactions, whereas you simply discount them. You're asking people to take an actuarial approach to personal risk, and to respond to their experiences and those of their acquaintances in that light. That's not how people work on planet Earth unfortunately. <spock>They're simply not logical captain.</spock>

NTS

Hi again 6000.

I would really like to comment on your postings. I guess you are from the UK and you seem to keep comparing RSA to UK as if they are quite the same.

I am looking at today's STAR and they have crime by precinct in jo'burg. I live in parkhurst which is the equivalent of Notting hill in UK..ish? Anyway, it is one of the better subhurbs.

The crime stats for parkview are as follows.. (first number is last year, second No is this year)

Murder 2 -5
Rape 8-11
Attempted murder 14-17
Aggrevated roberry (includes some violence) 281-411
Kidnapping 0-0 (Ok good news there!)
Carjacking 27-25
Burglary 725-608
Vehicle theft 459-414

This makes some pretty serious reading, and this is in one of the very best areas in the richest capital city in the continent! Besides that people in parkview are pretty bad at murdering each other i.e. only 23% were successful , it tells me that crime is worse in some places that others, yes, but you cannot say it is highly localised.

NTS

.. to continue from the last mail if I guess at a parkview population of 30,000 that means I have a 3.1% that a life changing crime will happen to us this year.

This stat is surely way above a middle class subhurb from UK...

Daxk

hi Nts, please give us a few more suburbs stats, I lived in Midrand, and have family in Edenvale? Would be very interested to see those

Nobody will ever convince me that SA crime compares favourably with any country !

6000

Hi NTS.

It's wrong to compare SA to the UK, but you say Parkview is the same as Notting Hill?


Once again, I'm NOT denying that crime is a problem.
Yes, crime is everywhere. And not just everywhere in South Africa.
But I maintain that it is localised too. The two are not mutually exclusive.
I think the stats I gave yesterday show that you are almost 200 times more likely to be murdered in one suburb than in another. That's not just "worse" - that's localised.
But this is mere semantics. We need to do something about the crime in this country - but that's not going to happen when people don't understand the problem because they read the sensationalised stats in the papers and take them as gospel.

Pablo

What is the problem that people don't understand?

Pablo